Your George Mason Patriots have picked up their first commitment in Emmett Adair, an Australian forward from Loyola Maryland.
Adair is a 6’9 big out of the NBA Global Academy in Australia, who was unranked. 247 has him as an unranked portal prospect, but the rising sophomore was getting interest from some P5s and great mid-majors in Clemson, Tennessee, and Colorado, and Nevada, Washington State, High Point, and Colorado State, per Jon Rothstein.
For those who are worried about another Australian forward, this one has proof that he can be a very productive player at the D1 level.
Adair was primarily playing minutes at the five, and with Kanga returning and this guy getting P5 interest, I do not believe that either are going to be the backup center. These two are playing together.
Emmett Adair By The Numbers
Some numbers will be saved for the ratings section later.
Offense
On the season, Adair averaged 14.6 points, 5.4 rebounds, with 2.4 of them coming on the offensive end, 1 assist, and 1.4 turnovers in 25.4 minutes per game on 57.9% from two, 31.2% from three, and a true shooting of 55.8%.
The forward from Sydney carried a massive offensive load, with a usage percentage of 27.9% and a shot percentage of 32.5%, 30th highest in the country. The assist rate is not high at 8.8%, but so is the 11.4% turnover rate. The playmaking is also different because his team was not too talented on offense. His shot was probably better than anything else his team was going to get.
One of the future Patriot’s biggest strengths was his offensive rebounding, grabbing 10.1% of opportunities.
In Patriot League play, the load got even heavier. Adair averaged 15.5 points, 5.7 rebounds, 0.8 assists and 1.4 turnovers on 56.5% true shooting, 22nd best in the conference, and grabbed 9% of offensive rebounds, which was sixth highest. He lead the league in shot percentage at 32.3%, and was fifth in usage rate at 28%.
Emmett shot 66.7% at the rim, with 59.5% of his rim makes being assisted. Those numbers are pretty similar to what Allenspach did with Mason, 72.9% made and 61.8% assisted. 2024-25 Samford Riley lines up as well, at 64.7% and 59.1%. The finishing profiles are a bit similar there.
For context around that number, if you sort by every team’s close two percentage, 66.7% is between 13th and 14th. The median (183rd) is 58.7%, so he is 8 percentages points above the D1 median. There should be some mental scaling there due to him being a big, but you get the point.
His biggest weakness on this end is the low foul drawing, with him having a free throw rate of 15.3 attempts per 100 shots, and only drawing 3.1 fouls per 40.
According to CBBShotCharts, Loyola Maryland had an eFG of 52.1% with Emmett Adair on the court, from November 19th (his first game) to the end of the season. With him off the court, the team had an eFG% of 46.9%. A difference of 5.2 percentages points. That is .104 points per shot. This is not the end-all be-all, as there can be some confounding factors in there, but those are the surface numbers.
Defense
This is definitely the worse end. His defensive box plus-minus is -4.4, which is the lowest on the team, but all but one player were negatives, so the numbers are trying their best to shift most of the blame on Adair.
At a glance, you can see why. A fine 14.5% defensive rebound rate, but a bad 1.4% block and 0.8% steal rate. That is how you tank your DBPM, play center and don’t block shots.
The biggest bright spot on this end is probably 4.0 fouls per 40, but you might want him fouling a bit more with such low playmaking and rim protection numbers.
The defense can somewhat be excused because of the insanely heavy offensive load. You don’t know what he could do in a different configuration. Mason does know what doesn’t work though, and that is having him as both your number one option on offense and your center.
According to CBBShotCharts, his team gave up an eFG% of 57.8% when he was on the court, and 52.4% when he was off the court. Teams shot 68.7% at the rim with him on the court, and 61.4% with him off. Once again, there can be some confounding factors here.
That sounds really bad, and it would be, if Adair was playing the same defensive role on Mason. He was playing the five for Loyola Maryland, and as I mentioned earlier, I do not see that happening next season. His skillset matches up much more like a four.
It is ok to not be good at everything. Loyola Maryland needed him to be a rim protector and he could not do it. Mason has the information advantage of knowing what happens when you ask him to play like Rudy Gobert, and should have the resources to handle it better.
This side of the ball should concern you if Mason was trotting him out there as the starting center with no defensive big next to him Loyola Maryland was forced to, but I have such a hard time imagining that.
Emmett Adair Scouting Report (Full Game vs Kentucky)
I could only find two games, and I gave the other one to Joe. Of course, this will be hard since he is going against Kentucky, who has Malachi Moreno, a first round pick on my board, and Brandon Garrison, a former five-star, at center. Besides maybe Lazar Djokovic, I do not think he will be facing anyone of this level in the A10.
This was also when Jonas Sirtautas was playing, their other big.
Offense
To start, Loyola Maryland’s guards might have the worst court vision ever. Adair will be so open from three, while making himself available, and a guy will just kind of dribble into nothing.
Adair was playing more like a forward than a center. He has good off-ball movement, with him not just standing still, but drift into space where the ballhandler will have an easier time getting the ball out. Along with that, Emmett knows how to move out of the paint and draw his man out of the play.
The 6’9 forward has really good pick-and-pop feel, getting to his open spot fast and making himself available for a pass. If he is closed out on, the big man has a bit of trouble dribbling with pressure.
The offensive rebounding was interesting. Emmett tips rebounds to himself since he knew he could not get the full ball. It was on Brandon Garrison and then again on Trent Noah. Started outside, got inside, and got it. Then found the open man for a three. A little note is that he was very reliant on tips in this game on contested rebounds.
Another thing I saw in that realm is that Adair would follow the driving guard so he can be in position for a putback.
Defense
As I was skipping to get to where he got in the game, I could see Loyola MD’s defense scrambling everywhere. Clearly it is already pretty bad.
I think his best defense is on the perimeter, where he is pretty mobile. Adair was switched onto 6’8 future NBA wing Kam Williams outside and forced a contested three. He is pretty good at closing out, flying around everywhere. The 6’9 big has good straight-line speed but the change of direction is a lot worse, as you would expect.
Emmett is not a great weakside off-ball defender, but that could be scheme. There are some good moments but he can get caught ball-watching and get blindedsided by screens. I saw some times where the Aussie just kind of drifted to nowhere and I couldn’t tell what he was doing.
The fast break was pretty good for him, with Adair having good timing on contests. He blocked a dunk from Otega Oweh, and you could see him fly downcourt, notice he was going to do a reverse, and slowed down to get there at just the right time.
Other guys were leaving their guys open in transition and Emmett was trying to make up for it, although it is clearly not his responsibility.
Loyola Maryland ran a lot of 1-3-1 and 2-3 zone, but it really didn’t work. The 2-3 was getting lobs thrown over him because a guard would let up penetration, and he had to step up. The 1-3-1 would have him sit under the basket and nobody challenged him because Kentucky took a gazillion open corner threes.
And now let’s hear from Joe.
Emmett Adair Scouting Report (Hampton)
Thanks Palmer.
Air Adair. Easy nickname for the new guy. At least, that’s what I’m calling him. The forward from Australia can play the four or five spot, though Loyola-Maryland played him near exclusively at the five spot, meaning he tracks to be one of Emmanuel Kanga’s partners holding down the center position for the Patriots next season.
I watched Adair’s performance against Hampton for this video. He came off the bench for this game and his instincts on the glass, particularly on offense, showed up quickly. Within the first minute and a half of being on the court, he crashed the offensive glass from the right corner, beating two Hampton players to the ball and creating an easy bucket for his team.
As Palmer mentioned above, there are some questions about his defensive play going by the metrics, but the issue certainly isn’t effort. You have to remember that Adair was a freshman last year. He was going to have growing pains, but having those pains means he has room to grow. The hustle and effort was there and I’m sure that this coaching staff will be able to coach him up. I also didn’t love the defensive scheme of Loyola-Maryland, especially since they were generally undersized at the power forward spot, it felt like Adair was left alone in too many situations.
He only had one three go down this game, but I like his form- it’s not janky, it’s a good shot. You can see how he has that 56% true shooting on the season. Again, as a freshman, that’s pretty good. There’s a high-level scoring big in this player.
Adair is also comfortable passing the ball, whether that’s out of the post or just in general. That’s an attribute that both Riley Allenspach and Emmanuel Kanga struggled with at times this past season, so it’s not a particular surprise to see Tony Skinn and company address that with one of their first players picked out of the portal.
The ceiling on Adair seems high and this is a solid early pull for the Patriots as they look to rebuild a frontcourt that has lost the majority of its pieces from last season.
Back to you Palmer.
Ratings
The ratings are on a 20-80 scale, like you would see in baseball. 50 is average, and each 10 up and down is a standard deviation. 80 is generational, so it is nearly impossible to get, and I probably would never project something with that rating except shooting (Zach Anderson coming in).
Shooting: 55 – Normally, 31.5% would probably be a 45+ or 50, but I am taking into account that Adair is a 6’9 forward. Along with that, Emmett was taking 12.1 three per 100 possessions, and anything above 10 is considered high. The highest player on Mason last season was Mincy at 9.8. Let’s dig deeper, the big man shot 43-49 from the free throw line, good for 87.8%, and 32-74 from the midrange, good or 44.4%. High free throw and midrange percentages are generally signs there is room for improvement from three.
I would guess that his shooting rises up to at least average (33%), if not a tick above it, when looking at these peripheral indicators of shooting improvement. Give Mason Nation 36% and we are very happy.
Driving: 45 – This was kind of similar to Fatt Hill where if the handle works, it looks awesome, but the handle isn’t always there. If the closeout defender flies past him, he is going to put pressure on the rim, but if he chops his feet and can recover, it is 50-50 whether Adair can dribble it cleanly to the paint.
Finishing: 60 – Once Emmett gets in position, the touch around the rim is pretty good. I think the percentages would take a step up with a lesser role in the offense.
Screening: 45 – The screens he sets aren’t great, but you take it because of how good of a pick-and-popper he is. There is some room for improvement here.
Passing: 45+ – There is room for this to go up, but I did not see great passing flashes, and an 8.8% assist rate is not high. I will say, there was nobody to pass to. Once he got the ball in any sort of advantage situation, it was his job to score.
Perimeter Defense: 55 – It was a small sample size, but he was really good at keeping guys in front of him.
Rim Protection/Help Defense: 35 – This is scheme-based, but he was not helping when it looked like he should, and when he did, it was not great.
Post Defense: 50 – He held his own against Malachi Moreno, which is not what I expected. Didn’t lock him up or anything, but it was not a revolving door against a first round pick.
Offensive Rebounding: 55 – This was the better side, with him being in position and getting it away from his opponent when he wasn’t. This would be a 60 with better hands.
Defensive Rebounding: 50 – It was fine. He got the boards you expected, and didn’t get the ones you didn’t.
Hands: 40 – This is a huge swing skill. The tipping of rebounds is cool when you know you can’t get it, but the problem was it seemed like the default was tip unless he is positive. A couple times some off-target but catchable balls went his way and clanked off his hands. The hands aren’t Gio Emejuru level, but the warning light is on.
Feel: 55 – Feel is up to interpretation, but my definition is knowing where everyone is, knowing where everyone is going to be, and how you can use that to your advantage to make winning plays. I liked his off-ball movement and going with the driver to get the putback, but it was somewhat undone by the help defense on the other end.
Where Does He Fit In?
Right now, I would assume that Adair would be a four, starting alongside Kanga. The challenger would be the other forward commit in Michael Marcus.
If you really want to dream, this is somewhat of a similar profile to Riley Allenspach. Weaker defender, but a guy who makes his shots at the rim and can handle a brunt of the load.
Once again with the defense, this was a second baseman playing shortstop. I cannot imagine he will be used in the same way.
This guy was an offensive engine in the Patriot League and was efficient. I can see that volume scaling down and the efficiency scaling up. This is a moldable ball of clay for Steve Curran to work with.
Get excited Mason Nation, this was a good first wave.
