After falling to the George Washington Colonials in the quarterfinals of the Atlantic 10 Tournament, the George Mason women’s basketball team put themselves in a precarious situation. This 2017-18 season for the Patriots has been arguably the best in the team’s history, but still they may not be in the postseason.
Looking at the roster on paper and watching them on the court, there is no doubt that this team should be considered one of the top 128 teams in the country. With a 20-win season in the middle-tier of mid-major conferences it is not a hard argument. The team did not lose a single game to a team ranked below the top-150 in the national RPI.
The problem is George Mason’s strength of schedule. They ranked 241st in the entire country, second worst in the Atlantic 10. Additionally they went 2-8 against the top-100 in the RPI with no wins against a conference foe in that range.
BREAKING DOWN GEORGE MASON’S REGULAR SEASON RESUME
For those that want George Mason to want to make the WNIT, you have to go against something that Mason fans have been ingrained to do:
Root against the March Cinderellas.
Unlike the regular NIT, there are 64 teams in the WNIT. However, 32 of those bids represent each conference in the NCAA. One is given for the highest conference finisher, according to the final standings, that did not make the NCAA Tournament. For the Atlantic 10, that is shaping up to be Duquesne. That means George Mason is competing for 32 at-large spots for the WNIT. Ranked No. 110 in the RPI as of this writing, they are most definitely on the bubble and have no games left to prove themselves.
Right now the worst thing for the Patriots is for bad teams to win their conference tournaments. Each time a bad team wins, everyone in the conference moves down a spot. For example, say Illinois State (RPI #240) wins the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. They then receive the automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament. Drake (RPI #70) becomes the MVC representative in the WNIT and then Missouri State (RPI #96) enters the conversation as a bubble team. Right now Missouri State is ranked higher than Mason. Instead of six teams above the line, they fall to five above. If this happens enough times, the Patriots and other slip.
Again remember the RPI is not the end-all, be-all for an at-large bid.
Current WNIT field (auto-bids), unless selected by the NCAA Tournament committee:
32 Automatic Bids:
Ball State (MAC – #44)
UCF (AAC – #46)
Drexel (CAA -#51)
USC (Pac-12 – #52)
Indiana (Big Ten – #54)
Penn (Ivy – #59)
South Dakota (Summit – #60)
Virginia Tech (ACC – #66)
TCU (Big 12 – #69)
UAB (C-USA – #71)
UC Davis (Big West – #72)
Duquesne (A10 – #73)
Wyoming (MWC – #76)
Saint Mary’s (WCC – #80)
IUPUI (Horizon – #81)
Albany (America East – #83)
Bucknell (Patriot – #91)
Alabama (SEC – #94)
Georgetown (Big East #95)
Lamar (Southland – #96)
Jacksonville (A-Sun – #99)
Missouri St (MVC – #101)
E. Tennessee State (Southern – #111)
Texas State (Sun Belt – #127)
Bethune-Cookman (MEAC – #132)
Robert Morris (NEC – #134)
Idaho (Big Sky – #135)
Radford (Big South – #138)
Marist (MAAC – #157)
Tenn-Martin (OVC – #158)
Southern (SWAC – #182)
New Mexico St. (WAC – #223)
List of top picks for WNIT at-large bids (RPI rank):
LOCKS (AND NCAA TOURNAMENT BUBBLE): Rutgers (#40), Purdue (#62), West Virginia (#64), Michigan State (#65)
WNIT LOCKS: Harvard (#56), Georgia Tech (#67), James Madison (#68), Navy (#74), St. John’s (#75), Houston (#79), Wright State (#84)
NEAR LOCKS: Miami – OH (#78), Toledo (#85), Fordham (#86), New Mexico (#90), Kansas State (#89), UNLV (#92), Penn State (#93),
BUBBLE (IN):
Western Michigan (#98)
Western Illinois (#100)
S.F. Austin (#102)
Rice (#104)
Cincinnati (#106)
Delaware (#107)
George Mason (#110)
MTSU (#113)
Colorado State (#116)
Ohio (#117)
Saint Louis (#119)
Dartmouth (#121)
Seton Hall (#123)
San Francisco (#131)
BUBBLE (OUT):
Chattanooga (#108)
Utah (#114)
Northern Iowa (#120)
Central Arkansas (#122)
Cleveland State (#124)
Milwaukee (#128)
Portland State (#129)
Hartford (#133)
LA Tech (#136)
Notes: Kentucky (#87), Auburn (#103), Iowa State (#105), Wake Forest (#109), Washington State (#115), North Carolina (#118), and Tulane (#125) were removed from WNIT consideration for finishing the season with a sub. 500 record.
Note No. 2: ‘DOWN’ and ‘UP’ is relative to passing George Mason
Now RPI rank does not determine who makes the field. It still comes down to a committee that looks at who beat who, when, etc. However, since I am not a women’s basketball expert, this is the information I have to go on as how teams are compared.
If you believe everything I am saying and still want the graduate transfer Natalie Butler to play again at Mason, here is a #RootForMason look ahead:
-Dayton (A10) must receive an at-large bid
DONE:
-Albany or Maine must win the A-East
-Quinnipiac or Marist must win the MAAC
-South Dakota St. or South Dakota to win the Summit
-WCC to be won by Gonzaga or St. Mary’s
-Northern Colorado must win Big Sky
-FGCU or Jacksonville must win A-Sun
-Drake or Missouri State must win the MVC
-St. Francis or Robert Morris must win the NEC
MISSED:
-New Mexico State or CSU Bakersfield to win the WAC
-Southern or Texas Southern to win the SWAC
-UC Davis or Cal Poly must win Big West
-Lamar or S.F. Austin to win the Southland
There are still other places where the Patriots postseason dreams could be dashed, but those are the most likely ones that could happen. Go ahead and set phone notifications, bookmark website tournament brackets, or whatever you do for March Madness, because Mason needs every spot available.
And yes, you need the favorites to win their conference tournaments.
Keep in mind, teams can reject their selection from the WNIT committee. If it is an automatic berth that is rejected, per WNIT rules, the conference loses that automatic bid. At-large teams must be above .500 to be considered for selection.
READ ALSO: NATALIE BUTLER’S BEST IS STILL TO COME
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