Mason Looks to Get Back on Track Vs. Davidson

Your 18-2 and 6-1 George Mason Patriots are taking on the 12-7 and 4-3 Davidson Wildcats. The Patriots are coming off a rough road loss against Rhode Island, and are looking to get back in the win column.

The Wildcats are coached by Matt McKillop, son of Davidson legend Bob McKillop. This is Matt’s fourth season at the helm, although he was player from 2002 to 2006 and was then an assistant from 2008 to 2022, when his father retired. McKillop has a record of 60-56 overall, and a conference record of 23-38.

Some people think Matt should be on the hot seat. I am one of those people. His teams have been pretty bad in crunch time, and an A10 win percentage of 37.7% is not going to cut it. I don’t think it is fire-worthy yet, but if he is in year four of a five-year contract, you probably let it expire unless he wows you over these next 1.5 seasons.

You also have to take into account the young pieces on this team. The only senior in the rotation is Sean Logan, so if you can bring everyone pick, which is a massive if in this environment, it is looking up. If all the freshmen and sophomore jump ship, then the main upside to this team is nullified, and it is kind of a wasted year.

Getting rid of the son of a legend would be a really difficult decision, and I hope that it was discussed during the transition period, as Davidson probably does not want to upset the elder McKillop, and the elder McKillop probably doesn’t want his son to have a job he doesn’t deserve.

RJ Greer, Sam Brown, and Sean Logan are listed as questionable, with Joe Hurlburt being out. Brown and Logan have been listed as questionable for a while, with Brown playing the last two games, and Logan the last three. They probably play.

Allenspach is listed as questionable, so that is a bit spooky.

JQ Roberts, their 6’8 big, played with Malik Presley at Vanderbilt during their freshman seasons.

Davidson By The Numbers

The Davidson Wildcats are the 132^nd ranked team on KenPom, with the 148^th offense and 115^th defense. In conference play, they’ve been ninth and eighth.

Since conference play started, per Torvik, Davidson has played like the 141^st team, with the 196^th offense and 122^nd defense.

McKillop has his guys playing slow, with only 64 possessions per game, 331^st. That is coming more on the defensive end, with the average possession being 18.6 seconds long, 354^th. That has continued into conference play, with it dropping to 63.3 possessions per game, slowest, and the defensive possession length growing to 19.1, also slowest.

Davidson can truly go 11 deep, which is pretty impressive. Their depth is unmatched. The problem is that they kind of don’t have that tier one player, or even a high-end two. McKillop tries to take advantage of the depth by playing the 19^th most bench minutes, and having zero 2-foul participation all season. Only two teams have had zero 2FP, and Mason has played both of them, with the other being Penn.

Offense

The offense has been pretty underwhelming, not really specializing in anything. 7^th in eFG%, 6^th in turnover rate, 8^th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 8^th in free throw rate, along with making 34.5% of threes, 6^th, and 51.1% of twos, 7^th. Nothing super impotant sticks out in a positive or negative way, but that is how you put yourself on the edge of the pillow fight.

The Wildcats shoot 44.7% of their shots from behind the arc, which is 5^th, but the number that feels shocking is them being 11^th in assist rate

Davidson is strangely bad from the free throw line. You’re Davidson, the team that had Stephen Curry, and markets themselves as the world’s best shooters should go. The team has shot 65.4%, which is 353^rd. When I saw that, I assumed it would be the Kim English problem, where you have individual players who can shoot from the line very well, the problem is that your guards don’t drive, so all of the free throws are taken by two big men, neither of who can shoot. But it spreads across pretty much the entire team, not just the bigs.

The only player that it a good free throw shooter is freshman Nick Coval, at 88.9%. Second is Roberts Blums at 71.4%, then Hunter Adam at 70% (7/10), Parker Friedrichsen at 69.2%, Sam Brown at 67.7%, Devin Brown at 64.9%, JQ Roberts at 61.1%, Josh Scovens at 60.7%, Manie Joses at 60% (3/5), Sean Logan at 53.6%, and Ian Platteeuw at 44%. I really don’t understand how this is possible with a team who’s identity is supposed to be doing the fundamentals.

You can see that kinda push-shot from the deep paint. If it goes in, I guess. I would expect a Davidson style team to take all of their twos at the rim, but their average two-point distance is 6.2 feet, 245^th. Even adjusted for the lowering average every season since the stat has been recorded on KenPom, this is by far the highest, with no other year getting close to being above six feet.

The rim is pretty blue, which could explain why they back up a couple feet. The three point line is pretty balanced.

In conference play, Davidson has had a big three in Roberts Blums, off the bench, Parker Friedrichsen, and Sam Brown.

Blums takes 29.7% of shots, 6^th most, with a 60.7% true shooting, hitting 56% of his twos and 40.5% of his threes. Roberts, once considered an NBA prospect, averages 12.9 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 0.9 assists in conference play. Think of him as a slightly lesser version of Terrence Hill.

Parker Friedrichsen, a former Wake Forest player, is their highest minute-getter at 29.1 per game. He only takes 23.1% of shots, and has a true shooting of 60.7% as well, which is 16^th in the league. The former Demon Deacon his only 41.7% of his twos, but 43.6% of his threes, ninth. In A10 play, he averages 12.6 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 1.3 assists.

Sam Brown was considered the wildcard of their offseason, and has been pretty whelming. Not overwhelming, not underwhelming. Just kind of what you expect when you sign a guy who was a volume scorer on a bad team. Brown has averaged 12 points, two rebounds, and three assists in conference play in 24.8 minutes per game. He takes 31.6% of shots when in the game, which is second, but has a 53.2% true shooting, which is not where you want your shot-taker at. The former Penn Quaker hits 53.8% of his twos, and 32.1% of his threes.

I do have to give him major credit for making massive development in his playmaking, being a secondary guy at Penn, and becoming a true PG with a 29.1% assist rate, fifth, and only a 16.3% turnover rate. You take the in-season development, as his season-long assist rate is 21.8%, meaning his conference play rate is SUPER high compared to non-con.

Outside of those guys, nobody really sticks out too much on offense. Nick Coval is shooting 33.3% from three, Devin Brown 24%, and Hunter Adam 33.3%.

Brown, a freshman, plays a starter’s amount of minutes, but has a true shooting of 42.9%, hitting 37.5% of twos. I really hope he defends.

Coval is also a freshman, and has a true shooting of 59.8%, which you absolutely take.

Ian Platteeuw, a 7’0 freshman, is one of the best offensive rebounders in the conference at 11.4%, but only makes 45.5% of his twos, so it can be hard to have him out there at times.

Sean Logan is pretty limited, but draws 7 fouls per 40, with a free throw rate of 152.9. Something is going right there.

If we are looking for guys who could be mismatches, the player closest to Tyler Cochran and Jahmere Tripp’s offensive game is probably Josh Scovens with the size and rim pressure, although he doesn’t have the outside shot like those two.

Defense

This side is slightly better, but with a fatal flaw. Davidson has the 7^th best eFG%, 4^th best turnovers-forced rate, and 3^rd best free throw rate, but they give up offensive rebound on 33% of opportunities, 11^th.

Opponents only shoot 32.1% from three, fifth, but make 54.6% of their twos, 11^th, and that is on a decent amount of twos, as only 39.8% of shots come from behind the arc, 4^th fewest, although it is still .1% above the D1 average.

They do a really good job at forcing shots away from the rim, but it seems like anything in between is wide open.  The right side being so much worse is really weird, since it is rim, paint, and wing three. The left side is a lot better. The average two-pointer is 6.3 feet away, which is 95^th.

Sean Logan has been super active, with a 19.1% block rate, incredibly high. It also comes with committing 6.7 fouls per 40, which explains the low minute count. You would not expect him to still be fouling enough to lower his minutes as a senior, but here we are.

Manie Joses is at 11.8%, which is super impressive for a 6’7 wing. JQ Roberts has a 4.5% block and 3.5% steal rate, which is active. Friedrichsen is at a 4.1% steal rate, which is fourth, and Ian Platteeuw is at 2.9% and 3%.

By the numbers, Joses seems to be their best defensive rebounder, the only guy at 20%, albeit in limited minutes. That lines up with the defensive rebounding struggles mentioned earlier.

Davidson Scouting Report (First 10 Minutes vs. Fordham)

Offense

As there always is, there’s tons of off-ball movement with the Davidson offense. Everyone has a quick release and will probably shoot with any daylight.

Sam Brown is kind of a loose cannon and will let it fly from deep sometimes. Manny Joses is still very raw offensively, but still definitely has value.

Scovens will drive and take push shots from right outside the restricted area.

Defense

Davidson plays a man defense, with as few switches as possible. They hedge a decent amount of ball screens, with the strong side corner defender temporarily helping on the big and then sprinting back to the corner.

I couldn’t tell whether it was planned or not, but it seemed like they let guys go baseline if they’re in the corner, as long as they can’t go to the middle.

Sean Logan can switch onto a guard and hold his own. Platteeuw will try very hard to get deflections on entry passes. Scovens will front the post if matched up on a big. Hunter Adam can get absolutely abused on defense, can let guys past and then can’t stay on the ground.

What Does This Mean For Mason?

I think the lack of consistent three-point shooting will make it hard for Davidson to spike up against a disciplined defense. Mason 70, Davidson 63, book it.