Your 18-1 and 6-0 George Mason Patriots are taking on the 11-8 and 2-4 Rhode Island Rams. Before reading this, you should go and check out the preview of the first matchup, linked here.
These two teams played on January 3rd in EBA, with the Patriots taking it 61-50. This was the Stas Sivka game, where he scored 17 and played 31 minutes, getting himself KenPom MVP.
The guy giving them the most trouble in game one was Myles Corey, who scored 12 on 9 shots, but mysteriously didn’t really play much in the second half. Nobody could stay in front of him, so they sagged off, and then he made them pay from deep, despite the numbers not saying he would do so. You would think given another chance, Archie would put out the highest upside lineup.
The biggest difference between now and last time Mason played them is that freshman wing Jalen Harper played 25 minutes in his first career start against Richmond. It sounded like he started due to Tyler Cochran being injured and Archie wanting him off the bench, but that wouldn’t explain the 25 minutes by itself. Definitely something to look out for, and I will pay extra attention to him during the scouting section.
This could be a very shorthanded Rhody team, as Drissa Traore, their backup center, is listed as questionable, and hasn’t played since their January 10th game against Davidson. Alex Crawford, one of their big wings, who also plays small ball five, is questionable. Thee is a chance it is Keeyan Itejere and then 6’6 Jahmere Tripp at the big spots.
Traore was also listed as questionable in the Richmond game he missed, so take that as you will.
Rhode Island By The Numbers
Rhode Island is the 109th ranked team in the country on KenPom, with the 174th offense and 70th defense. KenPom has them as the 12th offense and 3rd defense in conference play. If you filter Torvik to December 31st to now, conference play, Rhode Island is the 177th ranked team, with the 295th offense and 57th defense. At least they do something well and have an identity.
This is by far my favorite Rhody Archie team. In the past, his teams would be okay at one end, and then stink at the other. Generally it was having an average offense and a paper-thin defense, but now they are just having rock fights. The defense is better than the offense is bad. This is what makes me think that Mr. Miller deserves another year, this is first team with an identity, even if it doesn’t end up working out in the record department.
All of this can easily be countered with the fact that Rhody was a contested midrange miss away from RJ Johnson against Richmond from being 1-5 with losses at home to Loyola Chicago and La Salle. If you think you can upgrade from Archie, you do it, but you do not move on to move on.
All of the stats below will be on purely conference play unless specified otherwise.
Offense
The offense has definitely deflated a bit in conference play, with the 10th best eFG%, second to worst turnover rate at 20.3%, and 10th best free throw rate at 31.8 FTAs per 100 shots. On the bright side, the offensive rebounding is 5th in the league, although it has taken a dip since non-con ended.
Rhody makes 28.4% of their threes, 13th, and 55.8% of their twos, third. That would be awesome if they didn’t take 47.4% of their shots from deep, 2nd in the A10. For context, that would be 40th highest in the country if they did that all season.
I couldn’t filter it by just conference play, so January it is. Their conference games minus the opening loss to Loyola Chicago. The blue dots on the left side of the screen are a lot bigger than the red ones on the right. And those dots in the middle are nice, but you want higher volume.
In conference play, Tyler Cochran has taken the number one option title from Jonah Hinton, which is fine, since Cochran’s true shooting is 4.3 percentage points above Hinton’s. The problem is that Tyler’s is at 49.7%, way below average, and not remotely close to what you want from the guy taking 28.3% of shots.
Keeyan Itejere has been super efficient, leading the conference in eFG at 71%. It is on only 13.2% of shots, so it makes sense as a play-finisher. He has the 7th highest free throw rate at 64.5.
Nobody has really been shooting well. Jonah Hinton is 14-51, 27.5%. Tyler Cochran is at 9-34, 26.5%. The three maybes are Alex Crawford at 6-17, 35.3%, and both RJ Johnson and Jalen Harper at 4-10. Johnson shot 35% from deep last year at Charleston Southern, so maybe something is there. You don’t know what’s going on with Harper since he is a freshman, and only took five threes, making two of them, before A10 play.
Myles Corey has separated himself as the superior playmaker, with a 24% assist rate, compared to a 13.2% turnover rate. RJ Johnson is at 23% and 24%, which is very bad. Of course, Johnson is getting more minutes than Corey, so.
Jahmere Tripp has been drawing fouls at a great rate, 5.8 per 40, which is 9th highest. His free throw rate is actually higher than Itejere’s at 71.4. He’s kind of the only one that does it more than you would expect.
Defense
It is pretty incredible that Archie has this defense as third ranked. 11th eFG% allowed, worst foul rate at 47.7 per 100 shots. Opponents are making 39.2% of their threes, dead last, and 52.1% of their twos, sixth.
But, and that’s a big but, teams are committing turnovers on 19.8% of possessions, 2nd, and only getting offensive rebounds on 24.4% of opportunities, also 2nd. Rhody is giving up very high shot quality when teams actually shoot, but Rhody is dominating in the shot amount department by forcing turnovers and not letting up rebounds. The fouls hurt a bit here, but you can’t stop everything.
Opponents are only shooting 64.4% from the line, which is 2nd lowest. I am going to assume this isn’t random, and means they are fouling big men if they get an advantage.
Rhody is getting destroyed in the corners. Also, they have the shortest two-point distance allowed in the conference at 4.8 feet. Average is 6, so that is really bad. If they did that for the fll season, they would be ranked 361st, which is fifth to last in the country. Teams are doing Moreyball against them (threes and rim). The turnovers and rebounding really help carry them here.
Rhody has a lot of defensive playmakers, as that end of the court would get shredded without it. Tyler Cochran is the leader at a 6.2% steal rate, leading the conference, with Myles Corey not too far behind him with a 4.4% steal rate, 4th.
Keeyan Itejere has a 8.6% block rate, 5th, along with Drissa Taore, Jalen Harper, and Alex Crawford having 7.5%, 5.6%, and 3.4% rates respectively. Harper having it so high as a 6’3 wing is super impressive, especially when you consider he only commits 4 fouls per 40.
I was complimenting Jahmere Tripp’s fouldrawing on the offense end. He gives it all up on this end, committing 6.7 fouls per 40. That would explain such the low amount of playtime for a guy who you expect to be a contributor to some degree. I don’t know where those fouls are coming from, as he has 0 blocks and a 1.7% steal rate.
Outside of him, Keeyan Itejere is at 4.7 per 40, Drissa Traore is at 7.2, and Damone King is at 5.2. A lot of their guys are between 2.8 and four, which explains the high free throw rate given up.
Jonah Hinton is the only guy with a truly low foul rate at 1.6, 6th lowest, but I do not consider that a positive. When you are a shot chucker on offense, I am going to assume a low foul rate is inactivity on the defensive end, you don’t get that good grace like some role players would get.
Rhode Island Scouting Report (First Ten Minutes vs. Richmond)
This will be pretty short since I did a scouting section on the previous Rhody article.
Offense
Hinton will aggressively call for the ball.
Harper shot a corner three that hit the side of the backboard. I have no clue what that means for his 40% shooting on low volume for the season. He seems like their version of Devin Booker (who I very much like).
Tyler Cochran is still very ball dominant. If it works, it looks awesome, but if he goes 0-2, it feels like you have the college version of Kyle Kuzma on your team.
Rhody really struggled against Richmond’s ball pressure. The offense is so unbelievably clunky with Hinton and Cochran ballstopping.
Defense
Jalen Harper is super jittery and flies around. I see why he gets playing time.
Alex Crawford covers the backdoor cut pretty well. I am also pretty sure he accidentally tipped a ball into his own basket, although the announcer were giving credit to Richmond’s big.
Hinton seems like a better defender than I expected.
What Does This Mean for Mason?
I predict a 65-60 victory for the Patriots. The defenses will run this game, and you just kind of hope you don’t get an outlier game from Cochran or Hinton. Mason handled them very well last time, so let’s hope they can do it again.
The Patriots were sneakily a great Stas Sivka game away from the home Rhody game being a nail-biter, so they will have to play this one better.
A win would tie Mason in first with Saint Louis at 7-0.
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