Mason Hosts GW on MLK Day

Your 17-1 and 5-0 George Mason Patriots are taking on the 12-6 and 3-2 George Washington Revolutionaries in a battle that could have double-bye implications down the road.

Mason will have one more day between games, as they played Loyola Chicago on Tuesday, and GW lost to Davidson on Wednesday.

The Revolutionaries are coached by former Mason assistant Chris Caputo, who was with the team from 2002 to 2011, and followed Larranaga to Miami, staying until he got hired at GW for the 2022-23 season. Caputo has an overall record of 64-52, and a 26-33 record in A10 play. Candidate for the Miami job, by the way, per Jeff Goodman. I’m sure.

Starting wing Bubu Benjamin randomly only played seven minutes last game, and it seemed like he was injured against Davidson. I am going to assume this was an injury and not a Dola-esque benching midgame.

Last year, Tony Skinn pulled out a wrinkle that nobody expected, with wing/forward Zach Anderson guarding Rafael Castro, and doing it pretty well. I’m not sure Mason has a similar body type to Anderson, with maybe Dola or Long (?) being the closest, but Long is probably too short. Zach was listed as 6’7 205, but that is what FGCU listed him at as a freshman, so I am going to say 6’7 220+. It would be interesting to see if that could be replicated.

George Washington By The Numbers

George Washington is the 70^th ranked team on KenPom, with the 39^th offense and 173^rd defense. Caputo has them playing very fast at 70.2 possessions per game, 69^th fastest, with it coming on the offensive end, as their average offensive possession length is 16.1 seconds, 61^st.

In A10 play, the have the first ranked offense, and fifth ranked defense, against the 13^th ranked schedule. For context, Mason is at 11^th for SOS.

Offense

The Revolutionaries get their offense by taking and making a lot of shots, as they have the 30^th best eFG at 56.3%, get to the line the 82^nd most at 39.9 free throws per 100 shots, and grab 36.9% of offensive rebounding opportunities, 33^rd. So take a lot, make a lot. Their “weakness” is turning the ball over 17.2%, 187^th, and is right at the average.

In conference play, everything has stayed similar except the free throw rate, dropping down to 27.5 FTAs per 100 shots, 11^th in the A10.

GW gets their eFG% from making 36.1% of their threes, 61^st, and 58.1% of their twos, 32^nd. They take 44.6% of their shots from behind the arc, 77^th highest, and 4.9 percentage points above average.

The Revs actual biggest weakness is that they give up a lot of steals, with a 10.5% steal rate, 263^rd. Steals are the worst kind of turnover since they generally lead to more fast breaks, hurting your defense.

Unfortunately, CBBAnalytics either put their heat map behind a paywall, or the data that says what the average is down, because if I showed you the normal screenshot, it is a bunch of black blobs. The “undefined undefined” leads me to believe that it may be back, and this is an error.

The rim is pretty strong once they get there, and they get there a lot, with their average two-point distance being 4.3 feet, 7^th in the country. The short left paint is pretty odd, I really don’t get how it can be that low. The low distance is also helped by them taking so few midranges.

GW’s primary options are Rafael Castro and Garrett Johnson, but everyone eats, with Tre Dinkins, Trey Autry, and Christian Jones all averaging points in the double digits.

Castro was the preseason conference player of the year, and is listed as the POTY so far by KenPom. The former Providence Friar takes 23.2% of shots when he’s on the court, with a 67% true shooting, 32^nd in the country, with a 79 free throw rate, 22^nd. The 6’11 big draws 7.3 fouls per 40, while also grabbing 12.1% of offensive rebounds, which is 143^rd. Along with all of that, he as a 13.9% assist rate compared to a 11.9% turnover rate. A positive assist-turnover percentage is pretty rare from a big. Rafael averages 16.3 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 1.7 assists per game.

Kim English couldn’t have used this type of player at Providence the past two seasons, right?

Garrett Johnson, coming off a cancer recovery, is averaging 13.5 points and 4.4 rebounds. Johnson takes 29.1% of the shots when he’s on the court, with a 56.4% true shooting, making 51.7% of his twos and 32.9% of his threes. On top of that, he draws 4.8 fouls per 40, and makes 85.2% of his free throws.

Christian Jones is coming off of a standout freshman year, and has increased his true shooting by 6.1 percentage points to 59.4%. That is really good for a guard, with it coming from 38.3% from three and 59.1% from two. The weakness is a random 62.9% from the line, with that also being a struggle last season. Jones has slightly increased his playmaking efficiency, with a 23.4% assist rate compared to a 21.2% turnover rate.

Tre Dinkins is a flamethrower sparkplug off the bench that should scare everyone. Think of him as a more on-ball version of Terrence Hill. The former Duquesne Duke is hitting 42.7% of his threes, taking 110 of them, while taking 20 twos, getting him a true shooting of 64.8%. You have to be glued to this guy the second he walks past half-court. Dinkins averages 11.1 points and 2.1 assists.

Trey Autry was, on paper, the best player in college basketball last season by some metrics. When you look at his efficiency stats, you know he isn’t, but understand how a spreadsheet could think so. Their leader in minutes per game averages 10.9 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 1.9 assists, hitting 40.4% of his threes and 67.7% of his twos, getting him a true shooting of 64.8%, 71^st best. That’s a college version of peak Corey Kispert.

I mentioned Bubu Benjamin possibly being injured. He hasn’t had a game with an offensive rating over 100 since their December 10^th home loss to 293^rd ranked Delaware.

Speaking of, Benjamin has made 27.4% of threes on 62 attempts, Tyrone Marshall 36% on 25, Jean Aranguren 36.4% on 22, and Luke Hunger 23.1% on 13.

Defense

This is clearly the weaker end, as the two-point defense has been somewhat struggling. Opponents make 53.8% of twos, 252^nd, although they take a decent amount of threes at 43%, 289^th least, 3.3 percentage points above average.

The eFG% takes a hit because of that, at 51.7%, 210^th. Giving up 32.6% from deep is very reasonable, at 120^th. These two types of shots have somewhat inverted in conference play, with opponents making 35.7% of threes, 8^th, and 50.6% of twos, 5^th.

GW forces a decent amount of turnovers and stops opponents from grabbing offensive boards, with forcing turnovers on 18.1% of possessions, 125^th, and offensive rebounds on 28.2% of opportunities, 68^th. The fouling isn’t bad either, at 34.3 free throws per 100, 146^th. The latter two have suffered in conference play, rising to 31.2% and 36.7 per 100, respectively, which is 8^th and 9^th.

The rim is similarly soft on this end, but they do a good job at stopping the short paint, along with the far paint. Straight on from three seems to be a possible weakness.

Some people believe that Christian Jones, despite the increase in offensive effectiveness, has not broken out as expected, due to his steal rate falling from 4.1% to 2.2%. With that being said, it has risen back up to 4.2% in conference play. He was a bulldog on that end last season, but that has been less of a sure thing this year.

Castro is still a massive defensive playmaker, with a 6.4% block rate, and 4.2% steal rate, along with grabbing 26.1% of defensive rebounds, 28^th highest. All of that, while only committing three fouls per 40.

Tyrone Marshall and Bubu Benjamin have been very active defenders, with them having 2.8% and 2.2% block rates, and both having 2.6% steal rates.

Luke Hunger, Tyrone Marshall, and Ty Bevins are the only guys who foul at a high rate, at 5.6, 5.3 and 6.3 per 40. Bevins, a former Mason target, hasn’t played major minutes against a D1 team since an 18-minute game against Army on December 2^nd.

George Washington Scouting Report (First Half vs. Davidson)

Offense

As you might expect, Rafael Castro is the focal point of their offense. There is a ton of pick and roll with him, and if you play it too high, they get the ball to him rolling to the basket. He is a very willing passer out of the short roll.

Bubu Benjamin can attack closeouts hard, and can be the roll man. Johnson is also good at attacking closeouts and passing to where the help comes from.

Christian Jones can self-create and get two feet in the paint.

Tre Dinkins will let it fly given any space. He will act like he’s going to drive, but I promise he will be taking a three.

Hunger can get tunnel vision and take some pretty bad shots, and will take threes if left open.

Arenguren can drive pretty well and pass it out.

Defense

There was a decent amount of man press, which would sometimes leave Castro on an island with a center going downhill, which is a prime opportunity to get him in foul trouble.

GW was playing what seemed like a no-middle scheme, letting opponents drive baseline in the corner, or doubling them when there was a trap opportunity. Jahari Long corner drives could be quite bountiful.

The drives meant that they had to help, and Davidson was kind of smoking them with drive-and-kicks, especially if the Wildcats could hit a skip pass.

The Revs crashed the defensive boards hard, but if an opponent gets an offensive rebound, there is a high chance an open three is coming next.

Autry did a decent amount of ball-watching and would get beat backdoor.

Hunger is not the defender Sean Hansen was last season, so Mason HAS to take advantage of the non-Castro minutes.

What Does This Mean For Mason?

A win for Mason would mean that, at worst, the Patriots would have split against two double-bye contenders in VCU and GW, meaning that SLU game to end the season would likely be a tiebreaker.

I predict a 75-70 victory for the Patriots. I feel less confident in this one than I did in the VCU game, mostly because Castro is a two-way star, as opposed to being softer on the defensive end like Lazar.

If Mason wins this game, wow. They would really be setting themselves up to have to take a major tumble to not get a double-bye.