Your 12-1 George Mason Patriots are taking on the 4-9 La Salle Explorers in both teams’ conference play openers.
La Salle has not played a home game since they played D3 Lancaster Bible on November 22nd.
The Explorers are coached by Darris Nichols, with it being his first season at the helm in Philly. He was previously the coach of Radford for four seasons. Nichols has a record of 72-72.
Josiah and Truth Harris, unrelated, followed their coach from Radford to La Salle, and Justin Archer played two seasons under him, went to Georgia State for a year, and is now back with Nichols.
Jerome Brewer has missed all of their games since the end of November, so I don’t really know what to do with that. Some gambling page listed him as questionable for their December 21st matchup against Michigan but I cannot find where they found that information.
La Salle By The Numbers
The La Salle Explorers are the 261st ranked team on KenPom, with the 285th offense and 204th defense. They play pretty slow, with the 329th tempo, and 317th offensive tempo.
This is the biggest La Salle team in years, with an average height of 6’6, 90th tallest, and tied with Mason. Their effective height (bigs) is .1 inch lower than the Patriots’.
The lineup consistency has been insanely bad, as 12 players have started. Last season, you could only have 13 scholarships.
Offense
This is rough. So far, it is the lowest ranked in the conference. They really do not do anything well except get offensive rebounds, at 37.4%, 36th. But everything else is bad. Bad.
The Explorers have an effective field goal percentage of 45.5%, 332nd. Where does that come from? 30% from three, 303rd, and 45.7% from two, 321st. The worst part is, 71.9% of their shots are twos, which is 6th most.
Lots of twos are awesome when they go in, but if you have a low-variance but also low percentage shot diet, then you are pretty much guaranteeing your offense will be awful every game.
It is pretty odd that nearly all of Nichols’ teams have been built like this, taking a lot of twos while being below average at them. If it works, cool. But it isn’t working. You can’t do something really weird that doesn’t seem to have any upside.
Alongside all that, La Salle has a turnover rate of 21.2%, 339th, which kind of makes sense with their high assist rate of 59.1%, but I am still a bit confused on how this offense is supposed to work. A ton of their shots got blocked and passes stolen, along with non-steal turnovers being high.
The Explorers specialize in offensive rebounding, but even then, you would think you could see some two-point inflation. I can’t imagine how low their two-point percentage is on their first shot of the possession.
This is just an absurd shot chart. I really do not understand how that much blue around the rim happens.
Jaeden Marshall is La Salle’s number one option, taking 25% of shots, and averaging 12.8 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 1.5 assists on 57.2% true shooting. He draws 5 fouls per 40 and hits 90.7% of his free throws, and 31.8% of his threes.
Their bright spot is 6’5 freshman PG Ashton Walker, who averages 8.7 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 3.7 assists. He has the highest assist rate on the team at 28.5%, but only has a true shooting of 46%. The only reason you feel good about him whatsoever is that Walker is a freshman, but you don’t know who is returning anymore.
The only players making around one three per game are Jaeden Marshall at 21-66, and Eric Acker at 11-31, who is also only shooting 38.5% from two. Nobody on the team is shooting 40% or better from deep, with Jerome Brewer at 7-18 being the best.
Justin Archer is their only active player shooting over 50% from two at 53.5%. He’s taken zero threes on the season. On the bright side, Archer draws 5.1 fouls per 40, and grabs 13.3% of offensive rebounds, which is 89th.
Josiah Harris is their main option at center, and has the highest shot rate at 27.4%, but only makes 44.2% of his twos and has a modest free throw rate of 32.6. You can’t be doing that and also take no threes. At least he is a very good offensive rebounder, 93rd in the country, but the assist rate and two-point percentage being low leads me to believe those aren’t being converted.
Edwin Daniel also brings in a lot of offensive boards at 14.4%. The problem is he also commits 6.2 fouls per 40. He is their diet version of Emmanuel Kanga.
Redshirt sophomore Texas A&M transfer Rob Dockery was supposed to be this team’s X-Factor, and as you may have guessed, it has not gone well. He has a true shooting of 53.3%, which is unfortunately not far from the top for this team, but is 4-13 from three and making 47.7% of his twos, while having a turnover rate of 37.7%. He played 7 minutes in his first game with A&M and then left the team on November 22nd.
Little aside, Dockery was with the Aggies for the 2023-24 season, and redshirted. And then left after seven minutes into the next season. That is not a good bet to count on contributing in the A10. The conference is too good for your team to need that to work out. I want them to at least somewhat play, like Rafael Castro getting 9.3 minutes per game, or Ticket Gaines playing 10 minutes per game as a freshman. The difference between 0 and 10 minutes per game in a quality of player can be absolutely massive.
Defense
The Explorers’ defense is a little boring. They give up an eFG of 54%, which is 271st, force turnovers 17.5% of the time, 179th, let up offensive rebounds at a 32.1% clip, 225th, but only allow a free throw rate of 30.1 attempts per 100 shots, which is 63rd best.
La Salle gets shredded from three, with opponents making 37.6% of their shots from behind the arc, 322nd. Opponents take a lot too, at 42.2%, which is 2.4 percentage points above average. At least two-point defense is only a bit below average at 52.3%, 201st.
They are more balanced here, but not a good balanced. That’s ok against twos, horrible against threes, especially the right side.
Edwin Daniel has a 10.7% block rate and a 3% steal rate. As mentioned earlier, he also has 6.2 fouls per 40, but with team rim defense this bad, you take your stops however you get them.
Noah Collier commits 8.6 fouls per 40 to go along with his 8.6% block rate, but he hasn’t played since December 6th. Rob Dockery has a steal rate of 3.1%.
La Salle Scouting Report (First Half vs. High Point)
Offense
As the stats say, this team loves twos. I saw a drive and kick to the post and I wanted to close my laptop. Any pass to the perimeter felt like it came half a second late, and the three was no longer open.
There’s some decent off-ball movement, specifically from Eric Acker, but the movement and ball-handler are not always in sync, which can cause some unforced turnovers.
Speaking of Acker, he will pull from three with any bit of space.
Ashton Walker will push it in transition, but can get tunnel vision both in the fast break and the half-court. He will get some buckets and save some possessions, but La Salle is relying far too much on a true freshman PG.
High Point dropped into a 2-3 zone, and they really struggled.
Bowyn Beatty, their seven-footer, likes to sit out on the perimeter. He also has rough hands for passes, which carries over to rebounding, and is prone to traveling in the post.
Defense
The Explorers run a switch-heavy matchup zone. They collapse on the paint heavily; there will be open shooters. That along with going under a lot of screens, it is all about denying the two.
The amount of on-ball wide open threes they give up is astounding. It is absurd how early into the possession they will give up an open three to a good shooter.
The passing off inside the arc is pretty good, but of course they are leaving shooters open.
La Salle dropped into a 2-2-1 zone, and it made passing a lot harder. They might as well sit in this the whole game since they’re giving up threes anyway.
Beatty has decent mobility for a seven-footer.
Ashton Walker is pretty aggressive and scrappy on defense, but struggles with guards posting him up.
Jaeden Marshall also struggles in the post.
Edwin Daniel is their best guy at the rim.
What Does This Mean For Mason?
If Mason can make their threes, there is no reasonable way they lose this game. I predict a 70-60 victory. On paper, this game should be a little farther apart, but with it being a conference game and in Philly, you have to imagine La Salle plays a bit up.
Starting 1-0 in conference play with what should be one of your easiest A10 games of the season is a necessity. A loss could be a very ominous sign for what is to come, when you combine it with the too close for comfort wins against Loyola Maryland and Penn.
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