By Palmer Johnson
Your George Mason Patriots are taking on the 17-11 and 7-8 Duquesne Dukes, in a game that could be very important for tournament seeding.
This will be the first time Duquesne plays in Fairfax since the 2018-19 season. Yeah, it’s crazy.
The Dukes are coached by Keith Dambrot, in his third stint as a college head coach, previously with Central Michigan and Akron, finding success at the latter. Dambrot has a career record of 433-268, a record of 108-95 with Duquesne, and a A10 record of 53-65.
I know I’m beating a dead horse, but he coached Lebron in high school between his Central Michigan and Akron jobs.
It is also worth noting that there are rumors that Dambrot, 65, will be retiring at the end of the season.
Duquesne was projected to be one of the top teams in the conference after bringing back the core of their team and adding the Drame twins, but they had an extremely tough stretch to start conference play and went 0-5. The Dukes have gone 7-3 since then though, not including their random late-January Chicago State game.
I can’t find anything about injuries to Andrei Savrasov or Hassan Drame, so I think they’ve both just fallen out of the rotation. Savrasov has missed the last three games, but has been getting DNPs and very low playing time throughout conference play. Hassan hasn’t played since the conference opener against UMass. Right before the DNPs started, his minutes went from 10-20 a game to 5-12.
Ronald Polite missed the Fordham game, and we do not know if he will play today.
Duquesne By The Numbers
Duquesne is the 109th ranked team on KenPom, with the 169th offense and 71st defense. In conference play, they have the 15th offense and 5th defense. When you look at their KenPom page, there’s a whole lot of red on offense, and a whole lot of green on defense.
The reason they have such a disparity between the two is because starting around the late January game against St. Bonaventure, Dambrot decided they were going to start playing in rock fights. I respect him for changing the play style that clearly wasn’t working.
Dambrot has his guys playing at an average pace at 67.1 in conference play, with is 9th.
Duquesne was supposed to be a good shooting team, but both Tre Clark and Dae Dae Grant have taken step backs in that department, shooting 32.5% and 32.8%. Their only plus shooters are Fousseenyi Drame, 48.8% on Amari Kelly volume, and 5’9 Kareem Rozier at 39.7%.
In conference play, the Dukes have only shot 33.3% from three, 11th in the A10. This has brought down their eFG% to 49.3, also 11th. Not only are they not hitting their shots, they’re also not taking many, as Duquesne turns it over 18.1% of the time, 13th. It gets worse, the Dukes also aren’t getting to the line, only shooting 30.9 free throws per 100 shots, which is 14th.
Duquesne gives up a lot of steals, 10.3% of the time, which is 14th. Watch out for Baraka Okojie and Woody Newton.
Dae Dae may be struggling from three, but he is HITTING his free throws, shooting 95.2% from the line on the highest volume on the team, second in the country.
Unfortunately for the Dukes, their top two shot takers, Clark and Grant, are shooting below 50% according to eFG. Clark at least has his defense and playmaking to make up for it, but Dae Dae is kind of a score-only guy. His shot selection has infuriated me when I’ve done scouting reports on other teams that are playing Duquesne, hopefully that continues into this game.
Duquesne gets a lot of their points from twos, 50.7%, which is only .1 above the national average, but is second in the conference. This is a favorable matchup with Mason’s interior defense.
The Dukes get assisted on 57.1% of their makes, 3rd in the conference, which is odd, because usually this goes hand in hand with three-point shooting.
Duquesne really isn’t good from anywhere except the left mid-range and left corner, that’s odd. Whoever is taking the mid-ranges on the right is killing their offense.
Here’s why Duquesne has been okay for the past month or so.
The Dukes let up an eFG of only 48.4%, fifth in the conference. That’s really good, especially when you consider they lead the conference in turnover rate at 18.9%. Opponents are only shooting 29.2% from three, which is 2nd best. Surprisingly, they’re shooting 50.9% from two, which is 10th. I don’t know why I thought Duquesne had a good interior defense. Not only are opponents not hitting their threes, they also aren’t taking them, as only 35.7% of opponent shots are from behind the arc, which is third least.
Along with their three-point defense, the Dukes have been getting a lot of steals and blocks (stocks), blocking 12.6% of shots, 2nd, and stealing the ball on 10.4% of possessions, 2nd. I guess their big men go all out for blocks, and if they don’t block it, it is going in.
The bad? Duquesne is last in defensive rebounding, giving up 30.9% of offensive board opportunities. They also foul a lot, giving up 37.4 free throws per 100 shots, 12th.
Opponents get a LOT of points from two, 53.2%, 2nd, and not a lot from three, 25.3%, which is last.
Duquesne has been letting up that right corner three, and the left and right wing three. I really don’t see how they’re the top defense in the conference from this chart, unless all the red is from the non-con. I thought David Dixon was a really good rim protector, but this doesn’t show it. This is something to look into.
Duquesne Scouting Report (First Half vs. La Salle)
On offense, they take a lot of bad shots. I’ve seen this in this one and other games I’ve watched, Dae Dae Grant will take a deeeeeeeep three very early into the shot clock. The offense comes to a screeching halt a lot of the time when he gets the ball, as he has already decided whether he is shooting or not.
Another thing I’ve seen in other games I’ve watched and this one, Jake DiMechele takes a lot of threes, but I have never seen one go in.
Duquesne’s offense feels like I’m watching an AAU team at times.
The Dukes will make cross-court passes for seemingly no reason and turn it over a lot.
Jakub Necas seems like he has a future as a glue guy. He makes impactful plays that will lead to winning basketball with good players around him.
Tre Williams and David Dixon didn’t look good in the post, so I don’t think Hall or Kelly will need help inside.
La Salle dropped into a 1-2-2 press, but Duquesne handled it pretty well.
On defense, I don’t really see how Duquesne is so good at defending the three-point line while having lackluster interior defense, as they were letting up a lot of open threes while collapsing inside.
The interior defense got noticeably worse when Dusan Mahorcic came in for Dixon.
It seems like the Dukes play drop coverage on ball-screens.
Duquesne got fooled by Rokas Jocius setting a fake screen and then sprinting to the rim.
Brickus was doing whatever he wanted when Clark was out of the game.
The Dukes went into a 3-2 zone for one possession and got a steal.
What Does This Mean For Mason?
Duquesne does play physical, which is what Mason has struggled against recently. But I feel similarly about this game as I did the Fordham game. No matter how bad they make Mason’s offense play, the Dukes’ offense will play worse. I was wrong about the Fordham game because I didn’t account for Mason’s subpar three-point defense and the Ram’s high take rate. But Duquesne doesn’t take many threes.
Prediction: Mason wins 71-66. I usually try not to copy KenPom, who has it as 70-66, but this is my go-to score. I think the Dukes three-point struggles on offensive but dominance on defense will counteract each other and this game will be decided by who can dominate the paint. I’ve got my money on Amari Kelly.
