By Palmer Johnson
Your 18-9 and 7-7 George Mason Patriots are playing the 11-16 and 5-9 Fordham Rams in the Bronx.
On Friday, Fordham won their first conference home game of the season against Duquesne. It is way too late to be getting your first, considering they’ve played La Salle and Davidson at home. I’m not saying those are super easy games, as none are in this A10, but you have to win one of those two.
The Rams are coached by Keith Urgo, who is in his second year as Fordham’s head coach. He won A10 Coach of the Year last season after a fourth place finish, but has been unable to replicate that success in a deeper conference. The long-time Penn State assistant has an overall record of 35-23 and a 17-15 record in conference play.
Fordham will have a rest advantage of one day, as they played on Friday instead of Saturday.
Fordham By The Numbers
On KenPom, Fordham is the 198th ranked team, with the 251st offense and 154th defense. In conference play, they have the 14th ranked offense and 10th ranked defense.
The Rams like to play their depth, with 37.2% of their minutes coming from the bench. It looks like Fordham has a nine or ten-man rotation.
Urgo has his guys placing pretty fast, having 69.6 possessions per game, 78th in the country. Oddly enough, they are 8th in the A10 in tempo in conference play, I don’t know if that was Fordham’s choice or if they were forced to play slower with a slower group of teams in the A10 like Dayton and Davidson, with Mason soon to be added to the list.
As you could probably guess by their offensive numbers, the Rams have a pretty low eFG% of 47.8, 284th in the country. To make matters worse, they also have a 18.4% turnover rate, which is 265th. Not only do they not make their shots, they don’t take a ton of them either. Rough. It’s gotten worse in conference play, with Fordham being dead last in eFG% at 48.3. On the bright side, they’re much closer to being average in regard to turning the ball over.
How are they not dead last on offense? Because they rebound the well pretty well, grabbing 32.1% of offensive board opportunities, 83rd, and shoot a decent amount of free throws at 36.4 per 100 shots, 97th. The rebounding numbers have been maintained into conference play, with them having a 30.6% rate, 3rd in the A10, but the free throw amount hasn’t, with it dropping to 32 per 100 shots, 13th.
About those free throws…Fordham is shooting 66% on them, 335th in the country. In conference play, they’ve raised it…to 67.2%, 14th in the A10. Who’s taking them? Guards Will Richardson, Kyle Rose, and Antrell Charlton are all shooting below 70% from the line. The best free throw shooter on the team is Elijah Gray at 78.3%. This is kind of crazy to have so many guards who can’t hit their free throws. It is especially crazy for Rose, since he is nearly a 40% three-point shooter. It’s also worth nothing that Joshua Rivera is shooting 45.9% from the line.
How does Fordham Score?
The Rams actually shoot a lot of threes, with 41.8% of their shots coming from behind the arc, 63rd in the country. They may shoot a lot of threes, but they aren’t making them, with only 31.9% of them going in, 270th in the nation. It’s gotten a little better in conference play, with the rate being raised to 32.8%, which is still a lowly 13th.
Speaking of threes, Urgo really only has three plus shooters in Kyle Rose at 39.3%, Romad Dean at 36.8%, and Japhet Medor at 36.4%. Will Richardson was a Preseason Most Improved Player candidate, if not the favorite, but the shot hasn’t really been falling for him.
Fordham’s scoring distribution is a bit odd, with 33.4% of their points coming from behind the arc, which is 92nd in the country. You wouldn’t expect a team that shoots so poorly from deep to take so many threes, but I guess they can’t do much better inside.
The rationalization is probably that they will never outscore opponents by shooting in the mid 40s from twos, but maybe there will be some positive variance and they shoot up to beat a couple teams from taking so many threes.
That is rough. As you can see, Fordham is trying to play the “we can’t score, but neither can you.”
On the other end, the overall season numbers look decent, but the Rams have gotten worse defensively in conference play in pretty much every aspect except forcing turnovers.
Fordham went from giving up a 50.7% eFG, about average, to giving up a 53.6, which is 13th in the conference. They haven’t gotten much worse at fouling, but it couldn’t really get much worse. The Rams are giving up 44.2 free throws per 100 shots, which is 346th in the country, and in conference play, it has increased to 44.6, which is last in the conference by a lot. Only one other team is above 40, and it’s Saint Louis at 40.5.
Urgo’s squad is pretty good at defensive rebounding, with opponents only getting 27% of opportunities, 95th in the country. In conference play, it’s gotten better, with opponents only getting 25.3%, 3rd in the A10. This makes sense since they have some bigger guards playing the 2 and 3 a lot of the time, along with playing a forward at the 4 a lot.
Fordham is great at limiting teams from taking threes, with opponents only taking 29.4% of their shots from behind the arc, 12th lowest in the nation, with that rate staying similar, going down to 29.1%, in conference play, which is the lowest in the A10. What’s really odd is teams are REALLY making those threes. On the season, teams are making 37.4% of them, with is 350th for Fordham, and in conference play, teams are making 41.2%. For context, that is what VCU’s Joe Bamisile shoots from deep, who is 12th in the conference.
More positives for Fordham; they’re really good at forcing turnovers. For the season, the Rams have forced turnovers on 19.6% of possessions, 48th in the country. That has stayed in conference play, with the rate dropping to 17.5%, but still being third in the conference. Fordham is also first in block and steal percentage in the A10, which makes sense with their aggressive defense. To go along with leading the conference in block and steal rate, Abdou Tsimbila leads the A10 in block percentage and Kyle Rose is second in steal percentage.
The problem with the previously mentioned “we can’t score, but neither can you” is that Fordham isn’t really stopping the other team from scoring. That is an unfortunate combination. They look super soft from three, but do a decent job on the right side of the paint. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen such a disparity between two sides of the paint like this on defense. You usually see it on offense when a center is really good with his dominant hand and bad with his other.
Fordham Scouting Report (First Half vs. Duquesne)
On offense, Fordham seems to have a lot of ball-screens, but if they don’t get anything open pretty fast, the Rams have to settle for long twos. If the roller on the screen isn’t open, the offense falls apart.
As an example of settling early in the shot clock, Antrell Charlton took a long mid-range with may more than ten seconds left, that’s gross.
The Rams do a decent bit of those telegraphed entry passes that always seem to either fly eight feet above the guy’s head, or go straight to the defender. The basketball equivalent of the goal-line fade.
Kyle Rose is hunting for shots, whether it be an open three or a contested mid-range. He will get his, whether they’re good or bad. Rose scored their first eight points. The guard seems to be a bit chippy, as he nearly tossed a guy into the stands when he couldn’t get in position for a rebound.
Abdou Tsimbila can’t handle double teams. He has to worry about not losing the ball, rather than finding the open man. Tsimbila doesn’t add too much on offense, but he will take what the defense gives him. I don’t like him too much, he took a cheap shot on one of the Drame twins in a scrum for a rebound after it was clear he wasn’t getting it. The impact was so loud that could you could hear it on the broadcast.
Joshua Rivera likes to take as lot of pick-and-pop threes. The problem is he’s a 25.7% shooter from deep.
Japhet Medor is super shifty with the ball in his hands.
I’m not sure 6’5 Zach Riley can dunk.
On the other end, Fordham plays a lot of man press. On ball screens, the Rams will use the big man who was guarding the screen to double the ball-handler, which can force a lot of turnovers.
Duquesne got into the bonus before the 13-minute mark, and got into the double bonus before the 9-minute mark.
Fordham forced a lot of travels from Duquesne’s big men, watch out for them predicting a Keyshawn Hall spin move.
Fordham runs a decent bit of zone, which ends up with their center being too deep in the paint, allowing big men to shoot hooks over guards like Charlton.
The Rams ran a zone press, which turned into a 3-2 press in the half court. Duquesne had no trouble getting into their offense, and got an open mid-range. That’s kind of a neutral possession.
Ram defenders have active hands. Guys don’t let the ball fly past their deflection radiu often.
It seems like Urgo has instructed his guys to foul in the fast break.
Dae Dae Grant wasn’t making defense hard for Fordham, as he took multiple logo threes with over ten seconds left on the shot clock.
Medor will try to get in the ball-handler’s blind spot and get a steal when they’re bring the ball up in transition.
Tsimbila is a good help defender. Think of a less lengthy, but more athletic Stretch Akingbola. Tsimbila seems like a better post defender, but less impactful help defender than his GW counterpart.
Fordham’s combination of “defense” and lack of offense can make games super boring, as there were no points scored in the first three minutes of the game.
What Does This Mean for Mason?
This will be a game where Mason hitting their free throws will be incredibly important, especially Keyshawn Hall, Amari Kelly, and Okojie, who are shooting 85.2%, 76.8%, and 72.9%. If they can combine for 75% from the line, I think the Patriots will win this one.
If Fordham can make this a rock fight, they have a chance. Don’t let them dictate how Mason plays.
Prediction: Mason wins 71-66. Mason has struggled against particularly physical teams and I don’t think that paired with a possible home whistle will bode well for the Patriots, luckily, I don’t think Fordham is a good team, so Mason should be able to win despite this being a matchup that would generally favor the Rams. No matter how bad Mason’s offense could look, I can’t imagine the Rams’ looking better.
Fordham is my second least favorite team in the conference, so it would be pretty rough for them to be the ones that make Mason go below .500 this late into conference play.
