I haven’t been super excited about this season given the national spike in COVID cases and the NCAA’s insistence on cowering under the covers and leading from behind but there will be plenty of time for negativity later. For now, there’s college basketball on today bay-bee!
This season is so wildly different than anything else we’ve seen that I don’t see a point in doing rankings the normal way. Teams will play different numbers of games, some teams will have a robust OOC schedule and some won’t, and the stunted offseason and high likelihood important players miss key games means the UNCERTAINTY dial is turned up to 11. All that really matters for the NCAA this season is getting to a tournament; the regular season is just an unimportant means of getting there. Therefore, we’ll walk through what we need to see from each team if they want to credibly threaten for a spot in 2021 Bubble Madness, in very rough order of expected finish.
Bottom tier
At one point last year I was skeptical on Fordham’s defense, saying I’d bet the life of a close friend that they wouldn’t finish top 100 in defense. They finished 77th! That friend I’m willing to sacrifice? She goes by Tori. Fordham is strange in that they’re quite disciplined on that side of the ball but obviously without a plan on the other. They went nine consecutive games at one point without scoring 60 points. They will be very bad again.
La Salle projects to be guard heavy and potentially fun as they had a few promising freshmen in Christian Ray and Ayinde Hikim take on larger roles toward the end of the year. Ashley Howard hasn’t been able to figure out the offense, as the Explorers have been outside Kenpom’s top 225 in both of his first two seasons. They take a ton of 3s at the expense of just about everything else and that’s unlikely to change, so their only chance of being frisky this season will be to shoot at a much higher clip from 3.
Temper your expectations for Saint Joe’s, but if you’re an optimist they might be interesting with Taylor Funk back. I wouldn’t bet on it since they’re still going to be heavily reliant on freshmen and sophomores, and you just never know if the freshmen can actually play until they hit the floor, but a top six of Ryan Daly, Myles Douglas, Anthony Longpre, Funk, Rahmir Moore and Cameron Brown isn’t terrible. Daly was very good last year but Joe’s will be better if he doesn’t have to shoot 16 times a game again.
Next to last
George Mason returns nearly everyone, giving them a continuity advantage that most other schools don’t have. AJ Wilson had a breakout year, cementing himself as one of the best defenders in the A10. The argument against them is that returning everyone from a 5-13 team isn’t compelling; you need a lot of people to get a lot better. The argument for them is that Jamal Hartwell missed a chunk of the middle of the season with an illness, and they could get sophomore leaps from guard Xavier Johnson and Josh Oduro, two freshmen thrust into starting roles last year. Overall, Dave Paulsen’s George Mason teams have shot poorly from 3 on extremely low volume each of his five seasons, including 30.4% on bottom-100 total attempts, which puts a really hard ceiling on how explosive the offense can be. Mason was also dead last in the A10 in assist rate last year, which matches the eye test of the ball not moving and bad shots going up late in the shot clock.
What to look for:
- If Mason is going to make a run at the top four you’ll see it early on in 1) 3 point attempt rate, 2) 3 point percentage, and 3) assist rate.
- Bigs AJ Wilson and Josh Oduro both have really nice shooting strokes. If Mason’s offense is going to take significant strides we’ll have to see a few attempts per game from deep from those guys, as that’s going to be a key to stretching out the defense and letting guards like Javon Greene and Xavier Johnson get downhill.
George Washington is going to be heavily reliant on freshmen and sophomores. They’re getting some love as a sleeper, but my read is that the bench is fairly thin and the offense isn’t as dynamic as they want it to be. Case in point: Maceo Jack (76%) and Jamison Battle (79%) both take most of their shots from deep, while Amir Harris and Jameer Nelson Jr. both shot under 30% on very low volume from 3. That’s four starters that each have defined areas of the court where they’re ineffective, which makes them easier to guard for well-disciplined teams. Jameer and Jamison were freshman last year and could take the fabled freshman to sophomore leaps, but overall the talent level seems more likely to have these guys competing for top half, not top four.
What to look for:
- I’ll be paying attention to where on the court the starters are shooting and scoring from. They take a lot of threes which makes them dangerous on the right night, but if they’re legitimately going to compete the offense needs to become a lot more dynamic. In particular I’d like to see 6’7” Jamison Battle develop more of an inside game to become a complete player.
- Jameer Nelson Jr took 57.5% of his shots at the rim and shot 47%. Those are fantastic numbers for a freshman. Guards who get to the rim often and finish well are incredibly important for overall offensive picture, so look for him to continue developing here. This could become an elite skill for him.
Total wildcards
VCU will have a lot of raw talent, but the combination of freshmen and new faces makes it hard to buy in to the Rams in an offseason that’s as stunted as this one. With last years’ seniors graduating and Marcus Santos-Silva departing for Texas Tech, this is now safely Bones Hyland’s show. Bones was fantastic off the bench last year, but he took over 60% of his shots from 3. He’s certainly capable of getting to the rim as he shot 56% from close in, and he’ll have to do that more if he wants to be The Guy. Hason Ward is as promising as they come but was raw as a freshman, and returning rotation guys Vince Williams and Corey Douglas give the Rams some nice frontcourt depth. Ace Baldwin, the prize of a fantastic recruiting class, figures to get a lot of run in the backcourt next to Bones.
VCU’s recruiting class is big and fast and athletic, but they figure to be a year away. Overall they’re tough to project because the raw talent is undeniable, but this offseason was just the worst for teaching freshmen a high-pressure system like Rhoades wants to run. Beyond that, it’s not clear at all where the points come from once you get past Bones, or how they make them. Do they have shooters? Bones is a great shooter but after him we don’t really know. Do they have post scorers? That’s a big question mark. Which guards get downhill at an A10 level? Same.
What to look for:
- It’s tough to see how these guys threaten the top of the A10 without some immediate impact from Hason Ward. If he developed over the summer, suddenly they’re a lot more interesting. They’ll also need contributions from their freshman class of Baldwin, Josh Banks, Jamir Watkins, and Mikeal Brown-Jones, as how quickly they get up to speed will tell us a whole lot about VCU’s upside.
- Where do the points come from? We don’t really know if this is a shooting team, a fast break team, a get-to-the-rim team, or which players are going to occupy what roles. This is as blank a canvas as we’ve seen for VCU in years.
- The one big question early in the season will be “how does the press look?” Good chance it gets shredded early on as the new faces get acclimated.
Rhode Island should be nicknamed the SCRAMS because everyone left. Fatts Russell now leads a backcourt with transfers Jeremy Sheppard, Allen Betrand, and Jalen Carey, which seems not optimal because all four of these guys profile as scoring guards. Sheppard was the best assist guy at this last stop, but he hasn’t played D1 since 2016-2017. In the frontcourt they got a huge influx of talent with the Mitchell twins transferring in from Maryland, who should immediately steal time from Jermaine Harris and Antwan Walker. This is another team that’s tough to project because the talent level is high but we just have no idea how the stunted offseason impacts their ability to gel early on. Last season they had an incredible defense (top 40 in the country, per kenpom) built on their ability to shut down the perimeter. Since their entire perimeter defense left, save Fatts, that’s not likely to happen again.
What to look for:
- Fatts’ usage rate. If Rhody is going to be a legitimate contender I think you’ll see this stay in the high 20s. If it creeps up over 30 and Fatts is taking another 15 shots per game, I don’t think they’ll hit their ceiling.
- Interior defense. Rhode Island was uncharacteristically soft in the middle last year, allowing an outrageous number of attempts at the rim (bottom 40 in the nation). They masked that with an incredible perimeter defense that was one of the best in the country. The Mitchell twins didn’t get much run at Maryland, but they should be able to help here.
- Perimeter defense – it doesn’t need to be elite again, but it does need to be serviceable. I will keep harping on it until you’re tired of hearing about it, but teaching a cast of new faces a scheme in this offseason will be incredibly difficult.
UMass has possibly the best overall player in the A10 returning in Tre Mitchell. Last year they were one of the most Jekyll and Hyde teams I can remember. Good UMass won their first five games. Bad UMass lost ten of the next twelve. Good UMass beat Duquesne, Saint Louis, and VCU. Bad UMass lost to Rutgers by 25, Harvard by 24, Dayton by 28, George Washington by 24, Davidson by 35, and Richmond by 24. Good UMass plays four-out and puts shooters around Tre Mitchell, who’s not stoppable 1-on-1 in the paint in the A10. Bad UMass has a soft interior defense and allowed Davidson to shoot 20-26 from inside the line and Richmond to shoot 22-34 from inside the line in the aforementioned shellackings. UMass was heavily reliant on freshmen and sophomores last year, so if they’ve grown up and can bring defensive intensity each night, they should be strong.
What to look for:
- UMass looked very legit when they surrounded Tre Mitchell with shooters. Returning a lineup of Carl Pierre (33.5% from 3 on extremely high volume), TJ Weeks (48.5% in ten games before injury), and Preston Santos (42%) should give them the weapons they need to implement a really effective system. I want to see a base offense of four-out with Mitchell on the block and shooters/cutters all around to beat the inevitable double-teams.
- Interior defense. UMass allowed the single highest percentage of shots at the rim in the entire NCAA last season, allowed a league-average field goal percentage to boot. The perimeter defense did not make up for it. Tre Mitchell is a wonderfully skilled offensive player who wasn’t ready to anchor the paint defense last season. Did he make offseason strides here? UMass needs him to if they’re going to threaten the top four.
Fighting for top four
Davidson was consistently overrated all year long because people simply can’t process watching a Bob McKillop coached team that isn’t getting the most out of its players. Which reminds me, this is one of my favorite Player A/Player B comparisons:
Player A: 53.6% eFG%, 17.2% DRB, 4.5% block rate, 0.3% steal rate, 24.6% usage
Player B: 55.8 eFG%, 17.5% defensive rebound rate, 5.6% block rate, 0.9% steal rate, 24.8% usage
Player A is Luka Brajkovich last year. Player B is Luka Brajkovich his freshman year. A fun reminder that freshman aren’t guaranteed to get better, and helps explain a little why Davidson didn’t meet expectations last year. They lost Jon Axel Gudmundsson to graduation, but they return every other impact player, including Kellan Grady. They found a nice little athleticism boost with Nelson Boachie-Yiadom in the frontcourt late in the season, and Hyunjung Lee shot 37% from deep in a really nice freshman campaign.
What to look for:
- Do they have any other premium talent besides Kellan Grady? Lots of people asked “what’s wrong with Grady?” when Davidson was struggling last year. I saw it a little differently – Grady and JAG were a little short of the superstars we were expecting, but the much bigger problem for Davidson was the supporting cast. Defensively, they lacked athleticism, and offensively, they lacked firepower. They had a few games where everything clicked and they looked like they were figuring it out (including wins against Bad UMass by 35 and Bonaventure by 29) but all season long they just couldn’t hang with the top of the conference. McKillop is great, but you can’t squeeze blood from a stone and Kellan Grady alone can’t carry these guys into the top four. If they’re going to threaten someone needs to emerge in a big way. They’ve got some promising role players but I don’t know if they have any candidates to take a step that big.
Duquesne is a sleeper favorite this season due to the top-to-bottom talent they’re bringing back. They’ve got a formidable frontcourt between Michael Hughes and Marcus Weathers, two of the most underrated players in the A10, they’ve got elite point guard play in Sincere Carry, an athletic swingman in Maceo Austin, and an all-time “if I’m in the gym I’m in range” guy in Tavian Dunn-Martin. They lost Baylee Steele to graduation but they return the core of a team that gave Dayton two strong games and was a whisker away from a double-bye.
The big question for me: how does Duquesne get better? One of the most common mistakes in preseason prognostication is that “bringing everyone back” equals “we’ll be even better.” For all the talent we talk about, they were fifth in conference adjusted offense and seventh in defense. They don’t have any pure knockdown shooters (Dunn-Martin was best at 35% on volume), which is a problem when you take over 43% of your shots from deep. They need Sincere Carry (33%), Austin (29%), or Dunn-Martin to make a leap here.
What to look for:
- They had trouble keeping teams out of the middle last season, allowing 40% of attempts at the rim. It’s really hard to have an effective defense when your opponent gets to the rim that easily. A good-but-not-great perimeter defense didn’t save them here.
- Offensive discipline. Sometimes watching Duquesne you wish they chucked just a little bit less and moved the ball a little more. To some extent this is their identity (Tavian Dunn-Martin has never met a 26-footer he doesn’t like) but unless he starts knocking them down at a higher clip, this puts a cap on their offensive efficiency.
- Getting the ball inside. Marcus Weathers and Michael Hughes both shot over 60% from close in last season, but the system is more outside-in than inside-out. Weathers in particular is a pure post talent who will draw double teams. I’d like to see them emphasize that more to open up space on the outside.
Dayton will put a lot of talent on the floor but I’m a little less bullish on them than most. Jalen Crutcher is the A10’s best returning guard, but they lost so much talent in Obi Toppin, Trey Landers, and Ryan Mikesell that it’s really tough to project how they’ll play and who the other impact guys will be. Last season’s world-beating offense was predicated on two things: 1) Toppin being first down the floor and either getting a transition bucket or starting a halfcourt set with a smaller guard defending him, and 2) the Jalen Crutcher/Obi Toppin pick and roll. Yes, Crutcher, Ibi Watson, and Rodney Chatman is probably the best returning backcourt in the A10, but without Obi playing the role of queen on the chess board we just don’t know how effective they can be. The frontcourt is comprised of Jordy Tshimanga, who is nothing like Obi as a player, and a bunch of unknowns. Overall it wouldn’t be surprising to see them return to the top of the conference because Grant is as good as they come and the guard play is elite, but this is a team that’s identity was in the frontcourt last season, and none of those guys are returning, so that’s a really tough projection to make.
What to look for:
- How does Jalen get his buckets? I can’t emphasize enough that Crutcher running PNRs with Toppin was a cheat code. I tweeted a bunch of gifs last season of teams crashing on Obi and giving Crutcher a free run to the basket, or teams doubling Crutcher and allowing a slip pass or lob to Obi for a dunk. Help defenders sliding over opened up kickouts for threes, where Dayton shot at a top-30 rate. Some use the phrase “pick your poison” but “choose how you’d like to die for the next forty minutes” was more appropriate here.
- What does the frontcourt give them? Tshimanga doesn’t run the floor very well. The other forwards are more athletic but unproven. In order to evaluate them properly heading into A10 play we’ll need to know what their identify is in the frontcourt. Do they have anyone who can run again? Who’s going to be the peanut butter to Crutcher’s jelly in the pick and roll?
- Assuming Crutcher and Watson are the main scorers, how well are they creating buckets for themselves? I’ll continue beating this horse until I’m sure it’s dead, but defenses bent to stop Obi last year and the guards benefitted. With these two running the show, can they keep up their 3 point rates (42% and 39%, respectively)? How do they adjust when the ball gets doubled out of Crutcher’s hands?
Saint Bonaventure is Schroedinger’s team, caught between a desirable amount of returning talent and a complete lack of anything to show for it. On paper, Kyle Lofton and Osun Osunniyi as the stars, complemented by Dom Welch, Jaren English, and Justin Winston is a surefire top-four A10 lineup. In the real world, these guys just never clicked last year. They lost four games by over 20 points and 8 of their 11 wins were against bottom-four teams, with a ninth win coming against Bad UMass. They lost by 23 and were never competitive in the season finale against SLU with a double-bye on the line. I was as drawn in as anyone by the obvious talent, continually telling myself they were thiiiiiis close to getting it, only to be let down time and again. Bonaventure is a team with a high floor and an exceptionally high chance of not getting off the floor.
What to look for:
- Defensive efficiency. Bonaventure was quietly 12th in the A10 in conference play. Osun is a game-changer in the paint and he missed a few games, which certainly hurt them here, but they have no excuse not to be much better with so many minutes returning this season. If you like them to finish top four (and some people are picking them in the top spot) they need a big improvement here.
Richmond lost Nick Sherrod, which is unfortunately the story of their offseason. This has repercussions on some obvious levels, as Sherrod shot 44% from 3 on almost six attempts per game, which they just won’t be able to replace. But beyond that, Richmond was actually the best defensive team in A10 conference play last year, per kenpom. That’s easy to forget and a stat I’ve had to double-check a few times since they don’t have anyone that jumps out as a great individual defender beyond Jacob Gilyard. The starting lineup was synergy in pure form, five very good individuals that combined make a great team by year’s end. I was very excited about their prospects for running it back this year and had them deadlocked with Saint Louis for first; with Sherrod out, I just don’t see how they slot someone else in and still capture that unique chemistry that had them humming last year.
What to look for:
- Tyler Burton taking Sherrod’s place as the fifth starter. He gives them an athleticism upgrade, but that’s not as important for the style Chris Mooney wants to play. Can he play team defense the way they need him to? Can he improve on his 26% 3pt shooting from last year? Fair or not, there’s a lot resting on that young man’s shoulders.
- I’ll also be paying close attention to shot distribution. Blake Francis led Richmond in usage rate last year, followed closely by Grant Golden, then there was a big drop before Sherrod in third place. I don’t think this Richmond team hits their ceiling if Francis or Golden are taking more shots to replace Sherrod’s impact. Instead, I’d like to see Jacob Gilyard press the issue on offense. He’s more than capable and was a consummate team player last season in giving up a lot of shots to let Francis emerge. It’s time for him to take some of that back.
Alone in first
Saint Louis
I’ve seen some contrarian rankings this offseason. I get that people are skeptical on Travis Ford – I’ve been there myself – but there’s no reason to die on that hill. This Saint Louis team returns the deepest roster, didn’t lose any big contributors from last season, and could stand to get significantly better by virtue of Gibson Jimerson and Javonte Perkins becoming force multipliers on offense. Jimerson and Perkins weren’t good at the same time last year – it’s easy to forget that Perkins was really inefficient out of conference and then got his sea legs under him once conference play started. Add a shooter in Jimerson to that, giving Hasahn French and Jordan Goodwin some spacing to work with inside? We might finally see a Saint Louis team with an effective offense to complement that murderball defense. Yuri Collins was very good as a freshman and could get a lot better if he shoots a little more and cleans up the turnovers. Terrance Hargrove was the kind of wildly athletic but raw freshman that makes a great candidate for a sophomore leap. The offense will likely be a work in progress for a while, but to navigate this absurd season I’d rather have SLU’s defense night in and night out than any other unit in the A10.
What to look for:
- Offensive efficiency, or more specifically, how well do Perkins and Jimerson work on the floor together? They were Kenpom 111th last year (best of the Ford era) and they could get a whole lot better. With apologies to Jimmy Bell, I think their best lineup will be Collins, Goodwin, Jimerson, Perkins, and French, so I’ll be paying close attention to how they deploy those five and if it looks like a lineup that clicks. If it does, this SLU team will be good on a national scale.
