Disclaimer: I’m not a gambler. I’ve dabbled in it a little in the past but it’s really hard. Vegas is good at what they do and lines are sharp! But given I watch so much A10 basketball, and all the cool kids pick games against the spread, I figured I’d try my hand at it. Here goes nothin’.
Game 1: UMass – VCU (-7)
Gambling is hard because these lines that make no sense at all are often spot on. VCU lost by 8 at UMass a few weeks ago. That game wasn’t a fluke. UMass is learning how to play around Tre Mitchell and VCU is absolutely reeling. Marcus Evans isn’t 100%. Corey Douglas and Vince Williams have been out. De’Riante Jenkins isn’t coming back. VCU has personnel problems and there’s not much reason to expect they’ll solve them today. This one makes me nervous because UMass has a tendency to fall apart under pressure, but the lack of crowd in Barclay’s today probably helps them since VCU travels really well. Pick is UMass +7
Game 2: St. Bonaventure (-3.5) vs Mason
If you’ve listened to the most recent Hey10, you know I hate this matchup for Mason. We don’t shoot the 3 well and need to get into the paint to score. Bona has Osun Ossuniyi, the best rim protector in the A10. Mason scored 0.74 points per possession in game 1 and 0.97 in game 2 – but in game 2 we had Jamal Hartwell shoot 4 of 8 from 3. He’s likely unavailable today. Pick is St. Bonaventure -3.5.
Game 3: Davidson (-8.5) vs La Salle
Not much to say here other than Davidson nukes bad teams. They beat La Salle by 25 two weeks ago while only shooting 6-19 from 3. They have 30 point victories against Bonaventure, Fordham, and UMass since February started. I think they win this one easily (like up 20 at halftime easily) and become a very sexy pick to make it to the final. Pick is Davidson -8.5.
Game 4: Duquesne (-9.5) vs Fordham
I was skeptical of Fordham as a bad matchup for GW going into yesterday, but yikes. They looked not terrible. Potentially bad news for Duquesne, who went to overtime against Fordham at home and only won by 5 on the road after trailing late. For all the jokes we make about how terrible Fordham is, they don’t get blown out much (10 of 16 conference losses by single digits) and they have a defense that cuts off the paint really well. If Duquesne isn’t hitting from 3 (always a highly volatile team) Fordham will hang around. This feels like too many points. Pick is Fordham +9.5.
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