Your 22-8 and 10-7 George Mason Patriots are taking on the 27-3 and 15-2 AP #23 ranked Saint Louis Billikens. This game is meaningless for standings for Mason, as they are locked into the five seed.
The Billikens are coached by Josh Schertz, who was previously at Indiana State with Robbie Avila. He has a 112-58 overall record, and is 46-18 with SLU. His record in A10 play is 26-9.
Saint Louis is extremely likely to be an at-large team, with them being projected as an 8 seed in Joe Lunardi’s latest bracket.
Saint Louis By The Numbers
The Saint Louis Billikens are the 30th ranked team, with the 40th offense and 36th defense on KenPom. In conference play, they have the first offense and defense.
If you filter Torvik to when A10 play started, SLU is the 32nd best team with the 35th offense and 49th defense. If you filter to the day they lost their first conference game, February 17th, and onward, they are the 138th ranked team with the 100th offense and 206th defense. They are beatable.
All below numbers are conference play unless specified otherwise.
Schertz has his guys playing very fast, as they have the fastest pace in the conference at 70.3 possessions per game, with that coming completely on the offensive end, as they have the lowest possession time of 15.7 seconds. Their defense actually slows opponents down to 18.4 seconds, which is third longest.
Offense
The Billikens offense is insane. They have the best eFG% at 61.9%. SLU has the second best in the country at 60.7% on the season. They were first until very recently.
Saint Louis is actually average at the other three main factors, being 7th in turnover rate, 12th in offensive rebounding rate, and 8th in free throw rate. Pretty much, they’re amazing when they take shots, but are average at the stats that determine shot amount.
That eFG% comes from being 1st in both two and three point percentage at 57.3% and 44.9%. 44.9% is just INSANE from three. They have the three best individual shooters in the conference.
SLU has the shortest two-point distance at 3.8 feet, which is SUPER short. That isn’t just in conference play, they’re first in the country.
The Billikens have the highest assist rate, which really checks out when you watch them. They force a lot of teams to help, and punish said help.
Saint Louis gets the most points from three in the A10 at 42%. They get the least from twos at 42.4% and second least from the line at 15.6%.
Somewhat surprisingly, the Billikens have only the fourth highest percentage of their shots from behind the arc at 45.7%.
SLU hasn’t been as amazing around the rim as you would think, but their two-point percentage is still sky high because being below average at the rim is still better than taking midranges. Per CBBShotCharts, 6% of their shots are “long mid-ranges” (what you would consider a normal midrange), which is extremely, extremely low.
SLU is a one-headed monster with six swinging arms. Robbie Avila leads the way at 13.4 points per game, along with 4.6 assists and 4.8 rebounds. This is on a conference leading 66.3% true shooting (among qualified). That is insane.
What I think is most insane is that nobody takes over 25% of the shots when they are on the court. Considering 20% is the average (100% split among 5), there really is never a go-to guy. Everybody eats.
Speaking of everybody eating, this is what I mean by the monster. Trey Green averages 10.9 points, Kellen Thames averages 10.2, and Amari McCottry, Dion Brown, Ishan Sharma, and Quentin Jones all average exactly 9.5. That is pretty wild.
Paul Otieno is a great rebounder, grabbing 14.8% of offensive rebounding opportunities. That is great. He is their version of Kanga. Thames and Dion Brown are pretty good as well, as they are 20th and 25th among qualified.
Alright shooting. It will be sorted by volume. Trey Green has made 49% of his 100 threes, Ishan Sharma 48.5% of his 97, Robbie Avila 41.5% of his 82, Brady Dunlap 50% of his 50, Quentin Jones 45.2% of his 42, Amari McCottry 30.6% of his 36, and Dion Brown 40% of his 30. For percentage rankings in A10 play, Dunlap is first, Green second, Sharma third, and Quentin Jones sixth.
The two-pointer exists too! Thames makes 66%, first, Avila makes 62.9%, fourth, Dion Brown makes 60.6%, 10th, and Amari McCottry makes 58.5%, 16th. What can you do.
This team has a ton of playmaking. Avila leads the way at a 28.5% assist rate, fifth, and McCottry is not far behind him at 21.4%, 12th. And because Kellen Thames is wild, he is at 20.6%, 16th.
And there is some foul-drawing. Thames is at 5 per 40, 14th, McCottry is at 4.5, 19th, and Otieno is at 4.1.
One more thing, Ishan Sharma, Trey Green, and Robbie Avila are the top three players in terms of offensive rating, which is crazy.
Defense
The defense is also insane. They lead the country in eFG% at 44% and lead the A10 at 44.7%. That comes from allowing 30.3% from three and 44.2% from two, both first in the conference.
Saint Louis does a little better with shot-allowing on this end, being second in rebound rate, although they are 11th in turnover rate and 12th in free throw rate.
SLU’s opponents score 23.9% of their points from the line, first, but I imagine that is more showing how crazy their shot defense is than an indictment on their fouling.
That rim defense is absurd. January is insane with everything. You can see why this team leads in eFG% on both offense and defense. March is just one game but Loyola was kind of going crazy. Maybe it happens again, although it probably won’t.
Some SLU players get in a bit of foul trouble, with Dion Brown and Paul Otieno at 5.4 and 5.8 fouls per 40, but they have so many great players that it kind of just doesn’t matter.
Kellen Thames has a steal rate of 3.4%, seventh highest, along with Amari McCotttry at 2.5%. Robbie Avila has a block rate of 2.2%, 22nd, Otieno is at 6.5%, and surprisingly, 6’5 Quentin Jones is at 4.8%, tenth highest.
McCottry and Thames are very good rebounders on this end, at 19% and 19.4%, nineth and eighth respectively.
Thames could be considered for DPOY.
Saint Louis Scouting Report (First 10 Minutes of Saint Louis vs Duquesne)
Duquesne played SLU well in both of their matchups.
Offense
The offense is built on a lot of off-ball movement with screens. They all really understand spacing and where they can go to get open. There were so many off-ball screens with guys going toward the rim and flying around the perimeter. Some of them are going to lead to big threes and alley-oops.
I do like how off-ball movers know to move to the dunker spot when their man helps too far. A 90+% two is better than a wide open three…I think?
In the half-court, I would consider the offense a rim pressure factory that creates open threes and wide open looks at the rim. Defenders are scared to leave their 45% shooters.
SLU really will take the first open three they see, which goes in quite a bit.
Duquesne was playing super pressure and it was bothering SLU. I don’t know if Mason will be able to do that with their personnel, especially with assuming that Fatt Hill is out.
Ishan Sharma, Brady Dunlap, and Trey Green will take threes moving very fast. Sharma has an absurdly fast release that can have a guy covering him inside his jersey and still got his shot off pretty open before the guy realizes he has the ball.
Trey Green creates rim pressure purely to pass it out for someone for a three, although he mostly just shoots it. Green also has logo range and will take them.
Avila gets the ball on the perimeter a bit and looks to pass. If left open, he will let it fly without hesitation.
Thames can’t shoot, but if he catches the ball with momentum going toward the rim, it is very hard to stay in front of him. A10 Giannis.
McCottry was left wide open in the corner and airballed a three. Mason might decide to leave him open, even if he makes around 30% of his threes. You cannot defend everything.
Defense
A lot of switching on screens, but guys can get some separation off-ball. Mason will have to take and make shots against late closeouts. SLU was going under a decent amount of screens too.
Duquesne was doing a little give and go to David Dixon in the midrange corner, and then the guard who got him the ball set a mini screen on Avila, and Dixon got enough downhill speed that Avila had to foul. Maybe Ellington can do that?
Thames jumps everything and gets a lot of fast breaks with it. Also will foul a bit. He is a crazy enough athlete that he can recover.
Otieno just kind of does everything on this end of the court.
What Does This Mean For Mason?
This is going to be a game where Mason plays perfectly. There cannot be any insane unforced errors. No chucking the ball 15 feet out of bounds. No stepping out of bounds in the corner. No traveling on the drive.
Prediction: This game is about as hard as the road VCU game, and Mason almost won that. 81-80, book it. This is how Mason can get the fans excited about Pittsburgh.
