Your 22-7 and 10-6 George Mason Patriots are taking on the 22-7 and 13-3 VCU Rams. In the first matchup, the Patriots were victorious.
I already did an article on them for the first game, so I will try not to repeat myself.
VCU By The Numbers
VCU is the 45th ranked team on KenPom, with the 47th offense and 69th defense. In A10 play, they have the 2nd ranked offense and 6th defense.
If you look at VCU from the start of conference play to now on Torvik, they are the 55th ranked team, with the 43rd offense and 106th defense. If you filter from the last time they played Mason, the Rams are the 45th best team, with the 41st offense and 80th defense. The defense has gotten much better as the season progressed.
VCU plays at a decently fast tempo of 69.4 possessions per game, 2nd fastest, with it coming on the offensive end, as their average possession length is 16.6 seconds, 2nd shortest.
Offense
The offense is great, with there really being no weaknesses. Third best eFG%, 2nd best turnover rate, fourth best offensive rebound rate, and second best free throw rate. That eFG% comes from 35.1% from three, seventh, and 53.8% from two, third.
They are pretty balanced in their scoring, with 43.6% of their shots coming from behind the arc, 8th most. Their three-two-FT scoring distribution is 9th, 12th, and 2nd, so pretty balanced when you consider that the free throws are probably more with the twos than threes.
The Rams have the second lowest two-point distance average at 4.4 feet, meaning there aren’t a lot of midranges and they have a lot of close shots.
The offense has been petty balanced throughout conference play, but it was on fire in December. 59.1% eFG% is crazy. 52.6% is still pretty good, especially since they generally get more shots than the other team. The rim has been a little down in February, but everywhere else has been fine enough to make up for it.
Terrence Hill was a superstar coming into the first game, but has cooled down a bit. 31.4% on 102 attempts is not where you expected him to be after his hot start.
Tyrell Ward was not active the last time Mason played them, but has played himself into a fine rotation wing spot, making 38.5% of his threes and 75.8% of his twos, with a true shooting of 68.7%.
Defense
This end is more of a mixed bag, but isn’t bad. They give up the third lowest eFG%, force the tenth highest turnover rate, fifth best rebounding rate, and fourth best free throw rate. You want a few more turnovers forced, but luckily they have the sixth highest steal rate, which means their turnovers are a little more impactful than just stopping the opposing offense for a possession.
The eFG% comes from letting up 33% from three, fourth, and 50.6% from two, fifth. Opponents take a very low amount of twos against VCU, at 35.2% of shots coming from behind the arc, which is the lowest.
Also, they give up the lowest assist rate at 47.1%, generally meaning they help the least amount in the conference and really stay on their man.
That rim was awesome in December, meh in January, but they’ve locked back in for February. Their eFG% given up has dropped nearly 10 percentage points between the two months.
What Does This Mean For Mason?
Mason has to win one more game over the next two than Saint Joseph’s to get a top four seed and double bye, so this is pretty much a must-win for that to be possible.
The Patriots will be missing Fatt Hill, so Masai Troutman really needs to step up and continue how he was playing against the Bonnies. This also means Devin Booker probably won’t be a “play in case of emergency” player, but more a part of the normal rotation.
Mason won, so we get score predictions back. George Mason 71, VCU 70. Book it.
