Your 21-5 and 7-5 George Mason Patriots are taking on the 16-9 and 7-5 four seed Dayton Flyers. This game could (will) be massive for the double bye race.
Mason will have a two-day rest advantage, along with being the home team. That isn’t really fair to Dayton, but I guess so.
The Flyers are coached by Anthony Grant. Grant got his start at VCU (CAA), moved onto Alabama, and then to the A10 with Dayton. He has an overall record of 381-202, 188-92 with Dayton, and a conference record of 107-47. That is a great record, the problem is that generally his teams will lose some games they can’t on sleepy nights. Skinn is 2-0 against Dayton, and Kim English went 2-1.
Some Dayton fans want Anthony Grant fired, and that is pretty reasonable. He seems like a great guy, but a team in the top tier of funding, if not the top team, probably should not settle for always having the 8th best coach in the conference. It seems like everyone can succeed at Dayton, as, although in a different environment, Archie Miller had Dayton as a perennial tournament team.
I say this every time a coach firing is mentioned, but this isn’t just firing Anthony Grant, it is likely firing all of the assistants, and having all of those people and their families uprooted from their lives. Most importantly, kids being pulled from their schools to go somewhere else.
#AG4Life
Malcolm Thomas has had some flashes, but has possibly been pushed out of the rotation, with three minutes and a DNP in their last two games. Jacob Conner had been playing some big minutes at center, but only played 11 minutes after starting their second to last game, and got a healthy DNP against Davidson. I will not be discussing Conner in the following sections, as if I do not have anything nice to say, I shouldn’t say anything at all.
Dayton got a spring semester pickup in Belgian guard Sean Pouedet, but he hasn’t really been in the rotation. It is really hard to play real minutes so soon.
Dayton By The Numbers
Dayton is the 92nd ranked team on KenPom, with the 154th offense and 49th defense. In A10 play, they have the 11th offense and 3rd defense. On Torvik, if you filter from December 30th on (conference play), Dayton is the 150th team, with the 244th offense and 81st defense. Mason is 149th.
Surprisingly, the Flyers play decently fast, which is something Grant doesn’t do. 68.2 possessions per game in A10 play, which is 4th, with it coming more on the defensive end, having an average possession length of 17.3 seconds on defense.
Offense
The offense is pretty bad outside of free throw rate, where they are second. Dayton is 11th, 13th, and 12th in eFG%, turnover rate, and offensive rebound rate. So they get fewer shots than their opponents, and do less with each shot.
The Flyers get it done at the free throw line, with the aforementioned high free throw rate, and they make 78.5% of their attempts, first in the A10. 27.2% of their points come from the stripe, which also leads the conference.
That low eFG% comes from hitting 33.2% of their threes, 9th, and 48.8% of their twos, 12th. Only 37.3% of their shots come from behind the arc, which is 11th most in the A10.
The rim was red in December, but has been going down since, with them only making 44.3% of their twos in February. Not great. Their average two-point distance has been 5.2 feet which is 6th best, but that hasn’t been enough it seems.
The shooting has been really bad for Dayton. Only two players, Javon Bennett and De’Shayne Montgomery, are taking threes with real volume, and they are shooting 30.5% and 31.9%. Nobody else on the team makes one three per game.
Their top options are Bennett and Montgomery, with Derkack being the only other in double digit points per game.
It is not really Bennett’s fault, as he should not be tasked with being a team’s number one option, but the 5’10 guard has a true shooting of 46.9% while taking 29.1% of the shots, which is fourth highest in the conference. This comes from him making 30.5% of his threes, 36% of his twos, and 87.5% of his free throws. The former Merrimack guard is a very good playmaker, with a 21.9% assist rate and 10.8% turnover rate. If that is your third or fourth best offensive player, you are elated. Javon averages 14.9 points, 3.5 assists, and 2.8 rebounds per game. He also plays 36.6 minutes per game. Their season rests on his shoulders, which is not fair to him.
Their second option is Montgomery, who has been much more efficient, taking 26.1% of the shots and having a true shooting of 58.5%, 15th best. This comes from making 31.9% of his threes, 58.7% of twos, and 87.1% from the line. His shots come a little easier than Bennett’s, as he is a playmaker on the defensive end and gets a lot in transition. The former Mount St. Mary’s standout is averaging 14.5 points, 1.7 assists, and 2.9 rebounds. His biggest weakness is probably the 18.6% turnover rate, which is pretty high for someone who isn’t really in a major playmaking role.
Jordan Derkack is an anomaly. 42.4 eFG%, 55% true shooting. He goes from useless to impactful with his foul drawing, which is 7.3 per 40, with a free throw rate of 93.5 attempts per 100 shots. The former and current Javon Bennett teammate makes 33.3% of his threes, 40.5% of his twos, and 79.1% of his free throws. He is a sneaky playmaker, with a 14.7% assist rate compared to a 13.3% turnover rate. 47.1% of his points come from the line. Derkack averages 10.4 points, 1.6 assists, and 5.3 rebounds in 23.1 minutes per game.
Preseason, I expected to be able to do a big section on how impactful Amael L’Etang was, but he is averaging 8.5 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 2.9 turnover per game on 46.7% eFG, but 56% true shooting. It is fine when Derkack does it, but L’Etang was supposed to be the guy. Also, a 31% turnover rate is pretty absurd. The bright spot is the foul drawing, at 5.9 per 40, and a 67.4 free throw rate, but shooting 56.7% from two, 18.8% from three, and 80.6% from the line is a little disappointing for a mobile 7’1 returner. He showed flashes last season, and I honestly thought we were going to be questioning if he was going to declare for the 2026 draft. Amael L’Etang may be French for Christ Essandoko.
Keonte Jones was a late offseason pickup due to legal issues that were reportedly cleared, and has been a low volume but very impactful pickup. Athletic slasher, 59.8% true shooting, but only 13% of the shots. His foul rate is eighth in the conference at 52.3. I really do not understand how you have a struggling offense and don’t give this guy a heavier workload.
So many fouls are drawn. Derkack at 7.3 per 40, Malcolm Thomas at 6, L’Etang at 5.9, Jaiun Simon at 5.1, and Bryce Heard at 4.6.
Jaiun Simon has the body type, a stocky 6’6, that has been killing Mason, but I do not believe he has the on-ball juice to really take advantage. He gets his value from being a hustle guy and play finisher.
Defense
The defense is a lot better, but still a mixed bag. Dayton has the 5th best eFG% and 2nd best turnover rate, but the 12th best rebound rate and 11th best free throw rate. The biggest bright spot is that they lead the conference in steal rate at 12.6%, which likely contributes to the offense some.
Their eFG% comes from opponents making 33.9% of threes, sixth, and 52.7% of their twos, seventh. That kind of shows how bad their offense is.
That rim was sick in December and January, but has fallen a little bit in February. At least the three-point defense got better, but teams making 55.8% of their twos isn’t conducive to winning basketball.
Derkack is really a glue guy, as he is their best per-chance defensive rebounder at 19.6%. L’Etang and Jaiun Simon aren’t far behind at 18.1% and 17.7%.
Not too many guys get in major foul trouble, but the problem is that the two guys are who I would consider their top two centers in L’Etang at 5.3 per 40 and Malcolm Thomas at 7.3. Maybe that’s why Thomas is getting DNPs.
The Flyers have a lot of defensive playmakers, with De’Shayne Montgomery leading the conference in steal rate at 4.8%, and having a great block rate of 3.3%, 14th. Malcolm Thomas has a 10.8% block rate and 2% steal rate, but I discount that with the fouling. L’Etang has a 7.4% block rate, Derkack with a 2.9% steal rate, Bennett with a 2.8% steal rate, Jaiun Simon with a 4.4% block rate, Damon Friery with a 5.1% block and 2.3% steal rate, Keonte Jones with 2 and 2, and Jacob Conner at a 2.6% steal rate.
Dayton Scouting Report (First 10 Minutes vs. Davidson)
Offense
L’Etang post possessions may end with him throwing it nowhere. Very loose dribble, any ball pressure and it is over. A lot of him fumbling the ball and falling over.
It is so hard for Bennett to drive since he is at least 8 inches shorter than anyone else in the paint, and it isn’t a great vertical athlete. If you force him to take the shot instead of letting him pass it out, it probably works.
Montgomery will make cross-court passes if he sees someone open. They work pretty well. He will also be a home run pass away from a transition dunk very often.
Keonte Jones is a great closeout attacker.
Defense
Bennett can be a defensive liability because of his size. A lot of the defense is predicated on him staying on the smallest man. I could see a lineup where Mason plays Long without Mincy working very well. At least Javon knows he is small and will try to draw charges.
It is a pretty man defense but they will switch when they need to. If we are on a scale from pure man to matchup zone, it is 75 towards man. They try to make sure that Bennett isn’t switched off of their smallest player. Dayton also doubles in the post a decent bit.
What Does This Mean For Mason?
Every game until @ VCU is must win. Dayton is struggling harder than Mason, and someone has to win this game. A Patriot victory could spark something.
70-65 Mason, book it.
