Mason Heads Down To Richmond

Your 21-3 and 9-2 George Mason Patriots are taking on the 13-11 and 3-8 Richmond Spiders in Henrico.

The Spiders are coached by Chris Mooney, who has been with them since the 2005-06 season. He has an overall record of 389-313, and 371-301 with Richmond. In A10 play, Mooney has a record of 184-162.

Among players in the rotation, the Spider had Aiden Argabright listed as out, and Will Harper as questionable in their game against Rhode Island. Both ended up missing.

Richmond By The Numbers

Richmond is the 145^th ranked team on KenPom, with the 122^nd offense and 199^th defense. In conference play, they have the 8^th offense and 14^th defense. If count from only conference play on, Richmond is the 209^th ranked team, with the 125^th offense and 295^th defense.

Mooney has his guys playing at a pretty moderate tempo, 66 possessions per game, 9^th fastest, with that more coming on the defensive end, with the average possession being 18.3 seconds, 11^th shortest.

Richmond really likes to play their bench, with 44.5% of minutes coming from there. That’s the sixth most in the country.

Offense

The offense is a mixed bag. 8^th eFG%, lowest turnover rate, lowest offensive rebound rate, and 8^th free throw rate. I guess the turnover rate and offensive rebounding cancel each other out, and you’re left with two main factors at 8^th. Every Mooney team is built like that, with the eFG% pretty much being the only number that can slide up and down.

Richmond is lights out from three, making 39.4% of their shots, second. The problem is that they only take 39.3% of their shots from back there, 9^th. That wouldn’t be such a problem if the Spiders made their twos, but they don’t, hitting only 46.6%, 13^th. You need to move the two-three balance in some direction there.

That is so many midranges while having so much blue. The rim is fine, not great, not bad, but needs to be higher volume. Straight on three is scary, I’m guessing that is a lot of Walz being left open.

Richmond runs the Princeton offense, and you would think that would mean it is an analytical one. Nope, they have the longest two-point distance in the conference at 8.2 feet, with D1 average being 6 feet, although the A10 average is lower. Second to last is 6.6 feet, so a full 1.6 feet. You can do weird things when they work, not when you have the second lowest two-point make rate.

The Spiders have a bit of a three-headed monster in AJ Lopez, Will Johnston, and freshman Aiden Argabright, their three double-figure scorers.

Lopez averages 13.3 points, 2 rebounds, and 1.2 assists. He’s been an electric scorer, with the seventh highest true shooting at 62.2%, which comes from making half of his 30 threes, third, and 86% of his free throws, while having the 13^th best free throw rate. That elite true shooting from a 6’5 wing is very impressive.

Will Johnston averages 11 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 2.3 assists. The combo guard has a true shooting of 50.3%, which isn’t too good, but has fine secondary playmaking numbers with a 14.9% assist rate, and a low 7.4% turnover rate. Johnston makes 36.8% of his threes, but is only making 34% of his 50 two attempts. This would be a much more dangerous player if the twos were a real threat.

Local freshman Argabright averages 10.3 points, 1.5 rebounds, and 2.2 assists. He has a 57% true shooting rate, which comes from his 40% from deep,  41.3% from two, and 87.5% from the line on high volume, with a free throw rate of 56.3. His 4.9 fouls drawn per 40 get him at 14^th. The 5’11 PG also brings come secondary playmaking, with a 17.5% assist rate but only a 6% turnover rate, which is the lowest in the conference. Usually that goes to a guy who does nothing except catch and shoot, like a Zach Anderson or Koby Brea, not a guy who truly runs the offense at time.

Jaden Daughtry is the guy that I am most afraid of. Mason has gotten beaten by the stocky wing/forward, as nobody besides Dola Adebayo really matches up too well with them, who has been in and out of the rotation. Dola did play his best minutes of the year, so this could be nullified.

Anyways, just in case, Daughtry averages 7.5 points and 2.3 rebounds in only 16.2 minutes per game. He is their leader in shot percentage, although not playing too often. The former Indiana State Sycamore has a 57.9% true shooting, which comes from 52.8% from two and 6-12 from three.

Mike Walz is a four-year player who has taken a bit of a back seat on offense. The assist rate is down, turnover rate up. He is pretty much a Davidson shooting center now, making 46.9% of threes, fifth. The offensive rebound rate is decent, at 8.4%, 17^th.

Other than the guys already mentioned, the shooters are Mikkel Tyne at 40.7% on 27 and David Thomas at 40% on 20. Most of their guys that are main parts of the offense get their value from outside.

Jonathan Beagle is their backup center, and has a 25.5% assist rate compared to a 17.9% turnover rate. The true shooting is 54.3%, which is fine. He is 0-1 from three, making 60% of his twos, and only 40% of his free throws. Not great.

Defense

The defense is atrocious. 117.7 points per 100 possessions. That is BAD. It makes sense though, having the 11^th eFG% given up, 12^th turnover rate, worst offensive rebounding percentage given up, and fourth lowest free throw rate.

The biggest problem is rebounding, since not only are opponents getting pretty good shots, they are getting more of them since Richmond can’t finish possessions.

The bad eFG%, 53.9%, comes from 35.8% from three, and 54.1% from two, 10^th and 11^th. Teams take 43.9% of their shots from beyond the arc, which is 4^th most.

With that being said, St. Bonaventure’s defense was this bad when Mason played them, and that took a miracle to pull that win out.

The rim isn’t too bad, I would not have guessed this is the worst defense just based on the shot chart, but I guess when teams get so many extra chances it will be bad.

Richmond’s two main centers are Mike Walz and Jonathan Beagle. Per CBBShotCharts.com, teams shoot 62% at the rim with Walz on the court, and 61% with Beagle. Team’s have an eFG% of 52.4% with Walz on, and 48.5% with Beagle.

Richmond guards are generally known for getting a ton of steals, and while they are getting some, it isn’t like it used to be. Argabright is at 2.7%, and 5’11 Mikkel Tyne is at 2.2%. Other playmakers include Daughtry at a 3% steal rate, AJ Lopez and a 2.9% and 2.5% block and steal rate, Mike Walz at a 4.5% block rate, 11^th, Beagle at 2.3% for both, and David Thomas at 2% for steals.

Beagle commits 5.7 fouls per 40, and freshmen Will Harper and Jaylen Robinson commit 5.4 and 8.1. That explains why Robinson is pretty efficient on offense but plays very limited minutes.

Richmond Scouting Report (First 10 Minutes vs. Rhode Island)

Offense

As usual, there are lots of cuts after screening actions, just a ton of off-ball movement. Something I did not expect to see was a decent bit of perimeter one-on-one play, mostly from Will Johnston.

If the Spiders get an open midrange, they take it.

Walz has a pretty good post move set, along with being a threat from three when trailing.

Johnston is a pretty good off-ball mover. Jaden Daughtry is pretty careless with the ball, which matches his 20% turnover rate.

Defense

Richmond plays a mostly man defense with helping and rotating principles, especially on screens. Walz was playing a lot of drop coverage. A decent bit of shooter were lost when there was off-ball movement far from the ball. The Spiders also struggled a bit more in transition than I expected. I guess they are known for limiting transition, not defending it well.

Walz was staying in the paint when Rhody’s non-shooting center was on the perimeter with the ball, which leaves some space for ball-screens. He’s a pretty stout post defender, and generally doesn’t get backed down. If Allenspach gets the ball far from the rim, it will be hard to move closer.

What Does This Mean For Mason?

This is a must win for Mason. The Patriots probably need to go 4-3 in their last seven to cement a double bye and not have to worry about other teams, and a loss to this 3-8 Richmond team, even on the road, cannot be in that three with road GW and VCU games, and a home SLU game on the schedule.

The at-large hopes were probably ended with the Duquesne loss, since if you have to think about whether a mid-major could get an at-large bid, the answer is probably no, it will go to a 6-12 SEC or Big 10/12 team.

I predict a 75-60 victory for the Patriots. The offense will be able to do what they want against Richmond, and the Spiders might be missing an offensive spark from Argabright. I also am assuming that Dola Adebayo continues his good play.