No Love Lost: VCU Comes to EBA

This is the game.

Your 15-1 and 3-0 George Mason Patriots are taking on the 11-5 and 2-1 VCU Rams. This is the biggest game at EBA since at least the Dayton game, if not the entire Skinn and Kim English tenures.

VCU is coming off a home loss to Saint Louis, the favorite in the conference. They were down 15 in the second half and came back to take the lead, but deflated at that point.

The Rams are coached by Phil Martelli Jr., the son of Saint Joseph’s wins leader Phil Martelli. Martelli Jr. was the head coach of Bryant the last two seasons, being an interim and then named full-time when their original coach got into some trouble. He has a record of 54-30, making the NCAA tournament with Bryant last season. Funnily enough, Martelli Jr.’s Bryant was Isaiah Skinn’s other D1 offer besides Mason.

Barry Evans and Keyshawn Mitchell followed Martelli Jr. from Bryant.

Christian Fermin was listed as out for their game against SLU, and has not played since their November 17^th game against NC State. I hope he either comes back at some point or gets a medical redshirt, as this is his third VCU coach in four years. It’s a similar situation to Ronald Polite and Malik Henry.

Tyrell Ward isn’t on the injury report, but has not played since December 22^nd, and has not gotten more than three minutes since his 12 minutes against Samford on December 5^th. There are rumors that he will not be playing again.

Terrence Hill, Brandon Jennings, and Michael Belle are returners, so they should sound familiar to most, and Barry Evans of St. Bonaventure and Jadrian Tracy of Saint Joseph’s are former A10 players, more notably Barry Evans.

VCU By The Numbers

The VCU Rams are the 45^th ranked team on KenPom, with the 54^th offense and 58th defense. Pretty well-rounded. Against the fifth hardest conference schedule so far, the Rams are ranked fifth and seventh in offensive and defensive efficiency.

Martelli has a history of running a pretty fast offense, and has continued that in Richmond. They have the 77^th fastest pace at 70.5 possessions per game, with a lot of that coming on the offensive end, where their average possession is only 15.9 seconds long, 47^th shortest, compared to their defensive length of 17.5 seconds, 236^th.

The Rams only went seven and eight deep against St. Bonaventure and Saint Louis.

Offense

Their offense is very good. 62^nd in eFG%, 123^rd in turnover rate, 85^th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 29^th in free throw rate. There really isn’t a weakness.

The Rams make 36.8% of their threes, 46^th, and 54.5% of their twos, 94^th. A lot of their shots are threes, as you may guess, at 45%, which is 72^nd, and 5.2 percentage points above average.

That is fine for the paint, but what is astounding is how much is actually coming at the rim. It is ok to be average at the rim if you are taking a million of them. This is supported by them having an average two-point distance of 4.5 feet, 1.5 feet below average and 10^th best in the country. In conference play, it has dropped all the way down to 3.9 feet, which is somehow second behind Saint Louis at 3.8 feet.

Terrence Hill has been utterly insane on the offensive end, with the 19^th highest offensive rating in the country at 139.8. He takes 29% of their shots, the highest on the team by a fair margin when considering guys in the rotation, has a 70.2% true shooting, a 22.8%-11.2% assist-turnover rate ratio, draws 5.2 fouls per 40, makes 43.3% of his threes, 65.2% of his twos, and 92.6% of his free throws. Hill is efficient at everything, being the team’s leading scorer at 14.2 points per game while only averaging 19.4 minutes.

Forward Lazar Djokovic is considered their best player by some, averaging 13.1 points and 5.6 rebounds, with a true shooting of 65.4%, 70^th in the country. He draws a massive 6.8 fouls per 40 and shoots 91.1 free throws per 100 shots, which is 6^th. Lazar makes 36% of his threes, 60.9% of his twos, and 75.5% of his free throws.

This team has some shooters, with Jadrian Tracey at 40% on 75 shots, Ahmad Nowell at 41.7% on 36, and Michael Belle at 52.6% on 19. Barry Evans and Brandon Jennings have been somewhat disappointing from three.

Defense

The defense is also very good, although a bit more penetrable in theory. Opponents have an eFG of 48.4%, 82^nd. They force turnovers a bit above average at 18.2%, 127^th, and have average rebounding and free throw numbers.

I will say, the free throw rate being average is very impressive, considering that VCU opponents only take 31.5% of shots from outside the arc, which is 9^th lowest. That is 8.3 percentage points below average, and you would really expect for free throw rate to have an inverse correlation to three-point attempt rate.

The Rams only give up 46.5% from two, which is 40^th, but opponents make 35% of their threes, which puts them at 241^st. Of course, this is on a very low volume of outside shots, so it isn’t too consequential generally.

Straight on from three is pretty red, and nothing else really is. That paint is super blue, which I am guessing has something to do with them playing a lot of drop coverage, as I mention later in the scouting section. Teams do take a lot of shots at the rim against them, with a two-point distance of 5.5 feet, 269^th, .5 higher than average, but they still hold very strong against it.

Nobody really sticks out as a rebounder, but they have a decent amount of playmakers. Lazar has a 4.6% block rate, Tracey is at a 2.4% steal rate, Barry Evans is at 2.4% and 2%, freshman Nyk Lewis is at a 3.2% steal rate, Michael Belle is at a 2.5% block rate, Keyshawn Mitchell is at a 3.2% block rate, and Brandon Jennings is at 3.3% and 4%. That is pretty much their entire rotation, which speaks to how much disruption goes on.

Nobody in the rotation really gets in foul trouble, with guards Ahamd Nowell and Brandon Jennings both averaging 4.8 fouls per 40. Lazar Djokovic, Keyshawn Mitchell, and Michael Belle are at 2.8, 3.4, and 3.3, so there isn’t really a big-man target there. You live with your guards taking the fouls instead of your bigs.

VCU Scouting Report (First Half vs. St. Bonaventure)

I wanted to do their loss against Saint Louis, but the game was on TV instead of ESPN+ and I forgot to record it.

Offense

The Rams like to run in transition if they see a mismatch. That includes if someone is lost on the perimeter and there’s an open three. I hope we don’t see any turnovers turned into magnet-ball transition threes.

The offense struggled mightily when Bonny went into a zone, but it was near the end of the half so I did not get to see if there was future success. The Bonnies lost so assuming Schmidt didn’t stop doing something that was working, VCU broke it.

Barry Evans showed his versatility, with a bit of perimeter driving, although he pushes off and they do not call it, and is dangerous in the fast break. Evans was predicted to be an option at point guard, but has played a different role while still doing a decent bit of playmaking.

Lazar is a post threat, but will pass out of it when it fits. He will attack closeouts, but let it fly if left open.

Terrence Hill will also let it fly if he is left open, with any daylight. But he will also let it fly if he isn’t open, and it might go in anyway. Hill is their top scorer but will come off the bench and sub in around the U16 timeout.

Defense

VCU’s defense is pretty man-based with some switching, but it leans more into man than matchup zone. Of course guys will dig over and poke at the ball, but sometimes they go too far and leave threes open, if you can get it to your man.

Lazar played a lot of drop coverage, which explains the rim defense, but he can also get overextended and out of position.

The Rams go over screens a lot, which would explain the rim attempts and lack of outside shots given up.

Frank Mitchell was giving them fits, but I am not sure Mason has this type of guy. Maybe Kanga down the road?

Barry Evans can guard one through five.

What Does This Mean For Mason?

This is the game that can prove that Mason is a real contender for being a top team. The Patriots are on the border of being a double-bye team, and with a win against VCU, the entire conference would have to respect them as a top four team until proven otherwise.

I predict a 75-70 victory for Mason.

Tony Skinn has not lost a conference home game since a Keyshawn Hall-less game against Duquesne near the end of the 2023-24 season, which, by the way, the Dukes were so confident he was not playing, despite him not having a public injury, that they practiced as though Darius Maddox and Baraka Okojie were the top two options…but that is for another day.

Mason has had trouble finishing at the rim, usually giving up some bunnies every game. That cannot happen against this VCU team, as you will not get many opportunities. Kory Mincy is going to need to bail the Patriots out on some possessions and get himself a bucket, whether it be a self-created three or a midrange. Every shot will be important, and so will every stop.

I don’t think we see a major defensive struggle like the last time VCU came to EagleBank, although that would be fun to see, assuming Mason won.

This is the most important home game of the year. Be there, be loud, and be proud.