Mason Heads Up To Fordham

Your 14-1 and 2-0 George Mason Patriots are taking on the 9-6 and 0-2 Fordham Rams.

The Rams are coached by Mike Magpayo, who was previously at UC Riverside for five seasons before heading east, with an overall record of 98-69. This is a pretty good fit because UC Riverside is a pretty awful program outside of his tenure, so he knows how to get it done at the doormat of a conference.

The Rams were missing Ryan Pettis, Abass Bodija, and Roor Akhuar in their game against Dayton. Pettis has been out with what is reportedly a concussion since late November, Akhuar only missed their last game, and Bodija has missed their last two games.

I will be acting like the latter two are playing, although they were listed as out, not questionable. Fordham only had eight players check into their most recent game against Richmond, which could mean Mason can run up and down and have their players more fresh.

Jack Whitbourn has only played the last three games, but has played 15, 29, and 29 minutes in them.

Rikus Schulte was out of the rotation as a freshman for Davidson, but got playing time at UC Riverside last season with Magpayo.

Fordham By The Numbers

The Fordham Rams are the 196^th ranked team on KenPom, with the 243^rd offense and 148^th defense.

Ever since an atrocious loss to 326^th ranked Holy Cross at home, Fordham has been playing like the 135^th best team, per Torvik. In the same stretch, Mason has been 179^th.

Magpayo has his guys running at a pretty slow pace, 64.4 possessions per game, 348^th, with it coming mostly on the offensive end, with their average possession being 18.9 seconds long, 333^rd.

Offense

The eFG% and turnover rate are pretty average, but their calling card is offensive rebounding at 34^th in the country, grabbing 37.1% of offensive rebound opportunities. Their offense’s main drawback is only getting 23.3 free throws per 100 shots, which is 362^nd. For context, that is their defense’s calling card, and has the exact same number, and is ninth best.

The outside shooting is pretty bad, making 28.7% of threes, 336^th. That is somewhat counteracted by them making 55.7% of their twos, 75^th.

The Rams get 58.6% of their points from twos, which is 8^th in the country. That might sound impressive, but it is mainly because they don’t get any points off of free throws.

The paint is pretty decent, and outside is really bad. That is what the numbers say, so it makes sense. The medium two is also really good.

Fordham has a number one option in Dejour Reaves, and a 2A and 2B in Christian Henry and Rikus Schulte.

Dejour Reaves is a shot taker, at 29.6% of shots. He only makes 26.5% of threes, but a somewhat good 54.3% of his twos, and has a true shooting of 52.4%. Reaves averages 16.6 points, 4.4 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 2.6 turnovers per game. James Bishop.

The former Iona guard is somewhat of an iron man, playing 32.2 minutes per game, which is necessary since only him and Christian Henry are the two points guards listed as getting time. Nobody else has an assist rate over 11.2%.

Christian Henry is also an offensive engine, but is a pretty inefficient scorer. His averages are 12.3 points, 3.9 rebounds, 5.5 assists, and 2.4 turnovers, but the assist number is deceptively low, as he has a 38.8% assist rate, 14^th highest. It’s hard to get assists when nobody is making shots. He is their best shooter with real volume at 34% on 53 attempts, which is pretty crazy to have as your top guy. Henry also draws 5.2 fouls per 40, which is pretty good.

Rikus Schulte takes a lot fewer shots than Henry at 17.7%, but only scores .2 less than him at 12.1 points and 10.1 rebounds. Besides a lack of an outside shot, which is made up for by making 65.5% of his twos, his only flaw is having a decently high turnover rate of 19.3%. His biggest strength is offensive rebounding, at 15.6%, which is 33^rd in the country.

Jack Whitbourn has the chance to be a sneaky weapon, with a 68.8% true shooting, although on only 15.7% of shots.

Reaves, Akira Jacobs, and Marcus Greene all take a decent number of threes, 49, 48, and 49 on the season, but are all disappointingly low at 26.5%, as mentioned earlier, 33.3%, and 28.6%.

Defense

Fordham’s defense is strong at everything besides forcing turnovers. Teams have an eFG% of 47.9%, 67^th, offensive rebound rate of 24.9%, 16^th, and shoot 23.3 free throws per 100 shots, 9^th. You will take only forcing turnovers on 15.5% of possessions, 286^th, if it means being elite in the two other extra shot categories.

The Rams are giving up 34.6% from three, 234^th, but 45.3% from two, 22^nd. Teams aren’t able to lean on the three, as opponents are taking 39.6%, .2 percentage points below average of their shots from behind the arc.

An interesting Fordham stat is their opponents’ average two-point distance is 6.8 feet, .8 feet above the average, 47^th best. That shows pretty good rim deterrence. It is the best in the A10 right now.

That is a really good paint that backs up the rim deterrence stat. Those mid-paint dots are bigger than usual. The three point defense is not that great, except from the left corner for whatever reason.

Rikus Schulte is also a great rebounder on this end, grabbing 22.9% of opportunities. Jack Whitbourn has only played in three games, but has grabbed 29.1%, which is so, so many.

Schulte makes plays everywhere, with a 3.1% and 3% block and steal rate. Having two in both is considered active, so that is very good.

Abass Bodija, a freshman big who may not play, has a 4.1% block rate and only commits 1.9 fouls per 40.

There isn’t really anyone to take advantage of in terms of fouls, as Schulte commits 3.7 per 40 and Whitbourn 2.2.

Fordham Scouting Report (First Half vs. Dayton)

This is against a Dayton team missing both of their centers, so Jacob Conner and Jaiun Simon were running the five out there.

Offense

The offense was pretty ball-screen heavy. A lot of the possessions ended with Christian Henry or Dejour Reaves doing their thing. Reaves would take ok to bad shots if he saw one of his bigs in good offensive rebounding positioning.

Fordham really struggled against Dayton’s pressure defense, especially the zone press. Louis Lesmond made the worst pass I have ever seen when he got panicked by the press.

The offense was best when the guards would drive and kick, but sometimes they wanted to take tough shots instead. Reaves would sometimes have some predetermined passes, which could be something Mason could take advantage of.

Schulte is very good at tipping balls towards his guys. Everyone on the team does it, gets them extra shots.

A lot of possessions ended in contested threes.

Defense

Fordham played an absurd amount of zone, it felt like at some point they went into and never went out. It was a hybrid 2-3 3-2 zone. I don’t know if the zone was normal or if it was because of the no-center lineups Dayton had to run. The announcers made it sound like it was normal.

Before they dropped into the zone, they would try not to switch on screens. They were struggling with heavy ball-movement, which explains why they dropped into the zone.

The Rams had late closeouts on threes, and will struggle against decisive shooters. The late closeouts also mean they struggled on baseline out-of-bounds defense.

What Does This Mean for Mason?

This is a very losable game, especially with the VCU game a couple days later. Mason will have to play their best to win. This team is built similarly to Rhody, but I think the defense leans harder, but the offense is even more one-dimensional. If you stop Dejour Reaves, you win.

The game will likely be decided by whether or not Mason gets shut down by the zone. I don’t know if any of the bigs can be zone breakers, which is a bit worrying.

I predict a 60-55 win for Mason, which is the same score I had for Rhody. The defenses will thrive in this game, and you just have to hope that someone between Mincy, Long, Allenspach, or Troutman has themselves a game.