Mason Hosts ODU in a 20th Final Four Anniversary

By
Palmer Johnson
-
36
419

Your 9-1 George Mason Patriots are taking on the 3-7 Old Dominion Monarchs in EBA.

The Monarchs have two players that should be familiar to some deeper Mason fans, in Robert Davis and Caelum Swanton-Rodger. Davis was with UMass as a freshman, and he was in a viral picture of Frank Martin screaming in his face during a game. Swanton-Rodger was with Skinn at Maryland, and had an official visit during the 2024 transfer portal offseason.

Mike Jones is in his second season at the helm of ODU, with an 18-27 record, which includes 8-10 in conference play. It is his first stint being a head coach at the college level, with his last stint being at Maryland as an assistant, missing Tony Skinn by one season. He was running it in the WCAC with DeMatha from 2002-2021 as their head coach.

Old Dominion By The Numbers

Old Dominion is the 220th ranked team on KenPom, with the 182nd offense and 264th defense. The pace is also about dead average at 187th, with them almost exactly equal on offense and defense.

Their stats below look worse than they actually are, as ODU has the 49th best strength of schedule when looking only at games played so far.

Offense

The Monarchs are below average at eFG% at 226th, offensive rebound rate at 282nd, and free throws given up per 100 shots at 261st. Their redeeming quality is only being 143rd in turnover rate, so at least they aren’t letting their meh offense contribute to bad defense.

Old Dominion gets a lot of their shots blocked, with a block rate of 12.7%, 331st. This contributes to their 264th ranked two-point percentage at 48.6%.

A lot of ODU’s tendencies are strangely average, like three-point rate and pace. Personally, that is not what I would do as a below average team in the Sun Belt. You specialize in something that will take advantage of some teams on any given night, not playing straight-up.

The right side of the paint and the corner are both much more red than their left counterpart. It looks like they take and miss a lot of free throw midranges in that zone busting spot.

Their number one option is KC Shaw, who missed four games in a row before returning for their last one. Shaw is a 6’4 wing with a 27.3% shot rate, and a 46.3% true shooting. He draws 5.9 fouls per 40, hits 42% of his twos, and is 0-7 from three. KC averages 14.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 2 assists. He only shot 9-43 from deep last season.

ODU has two more high usage players in Robert Davis and Drew McKenna, with McKenna being a much more effective option in less playing time. Davis has a 25.8% shot rate, and McKenna is 25.4. Davis has a true shooting of 46.1%, and McKenna is all the way up at 57.3%. Davis is pretty much just chucking up threes and only making 34% of them, while being bad from two at 10-30. McKenna is 60% from two, but only plays 12 minutes per game compared to Davis’ 27.3.

The two scary players are LJ Thomas and Jordan Battle, as they take a pedestrian amount of shots, but are both pretty efficient at 55.6% and 56.9% true shootings. Thomas adds onto that with a 24% assist rate compared to a 17.2% turnover rate. Battle adds 4.9 fouls drawn per 40 and 36.8% from three on decent volume.

LJ Thomas averages 13.3 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 3.5 assists. Battle averages 12.8 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 2.9 assists.

6’8 Jared Turner is the only plus shooting threat, at 41.2% from deep on 34 attempts. He isn’t a threat from anywhere else, being 3-7 from two. Turner was a teammate of Masai Troutman during two college seasons at Northeastern, being in the same freshman class but redshirting after his sophomore year.

Caleum Swanton-Rodger is a decent offensive rebounder, and is moderately efficient for a seven-footer at a 53.9% true shooting.

Defense

The Monarchs are below average in literally every KenPom metric except three-point defense at 32%, 135th, on this end. They have the 220th eFG% given up, the 345th turnover forced rate, 274th offensive rebound give-up rate, and 298th free throw rate. Opponents make 54.4% of their twos, and they are only taking 36.8% of shots from behind the arc, which is 95th least, so a lot of twos.

Their defensive shot chart is eerily similar to their offensive. I had to check twice to make sure it was defensive. They don’t really specialize in anything, but the two-point defense is pretty bad.

Caelum Swanton-Rodger gets a lot of blocks at 6.7%, 129th best, but commits 6.2 fouls per 40. His teammate, Donovan Raymond, has a 6% block rate, but an astounding 12.6 fouls per 40. Jared Turner also commits 5.6 fouls per 40, so it could get shallow with their bigs pretty fast.

Old Dominion Scouting Report (First Half vs. Villanova)

I wanted to use the Richmond game, but unfortunately it wasn’t on ESPN+ or anything else as a VOD. Villanova will be a tough evaluation but any other game was either CAA and on Flo Sports or too old.

There was one point in the game where the teams shot threes back and forth and made 5 combined in a row. It is also worth noting that they really held their own against Villanova in the first half, only being down four.

Offense

The team overall was taking a lot of midranges, and were definitely getting sped up by Villanova’s press. Mason could take advantage of that.

Caelum Swanton-Rodger has a decent post game, and ends a lot of possessions in the paint, which somewhat explains his offensive rebounding.

Robert Davis can struggle with pressure.

Jordan Battle is a good driver. He was getting past everyone on Villanova.

LJ Thomas can turn into a shot chucker.

Defense

The team overall struggles with rotations, with a guy being open after the first help. “Help the helper” is coming slow. They also struggle with offenses running downhill, I saw a lot of bad offense that turned into slow getting back combinations.

There was a lot of matchup zone.

Scottie Hubbard is a good perimeter defender, probably their best. Robert Davis was having a tough time out there, but it was also a high recruit in freshman Acaden Lewis.

CSR is a decent defender on the perimeter for a seven-footer playing in the Sun Belt. Big Ben Nacey is very lumbering, while only 6’8, and looks like he has bricks on his feet.

What Does This Mean For Mason?

This could be a game where Allenspach has to mirror Caelum Swanton-Rodger’s minutes, since I am not sure how 6’7 Ellington will deal with him. Maybe there’s a leverage advantage, but it is certainly something ODU could try to take advantage of.

Mincy could have a field day with how often Villanova’s guards were flying past ODU on the perimeter.

I would predict a comfortable 75-60 Mason victory. I think the defense will be pretty good, and the offense with Mincy will be extremely tough to stop.

This is the Final Four 20th anniversary game, so it is very important that Mason wins this game against an old CAA foe.

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