Your 9-0 George Mason Patriots are taking on the 7-2 Virginia Tech Hokies in Blacksburg, Mason’s first and only true road game of the non-conference season. Tech is ranked 68th on NET, so this is a Quad 1 game.
Virginia Tech is coached by Mike Young, who has been with the team since the 2019-20 season, has an overall record of 411-331, 112-87 with Virginia Tech, and 53-60 record in ACC play. Young had been with Wofford since 2002-03 before going to Blacksburg.
It sounds as though the Hokies will be without former VCU forward Tobi Lawal. Lawal is a high jumper who gets a lot of rebounds and has developed immensely since getting to Blacksburg. They have been missing him sorely. Their only two losses of the season have come with him out of the lineup.
Torvik has a feature when you can see rankings during a time period. If you start the period when Tobi Lawal went out, Tech is playing like the 141st ranked team. It is a small sample size of three games, but that is what we have.
Virginia Tech By The Numbers
Virginia Tech is the 73rd ranked team on KenPom, with the 72nd offense and 83rd defense. They have dropped 19 spots since the Lawal injury.
The Hokies have been playing a bit fast, with them having the 125th highest pace, and their offensive possessions being 111th fastest, and defensive being 249th fastest.
Offense
Tech has somewhat average numbers across the board, except in one spot. They have the second lowest turnover rate in the country at 12.2%.
The only other notable stat is that they are only shooting 36.9% of their shots from behind the arc, which is 230th most. This is a far cry from what Mike Young’s past teams did.
That difference between the left and right side of the court is pretty odd, especially on the interior.
Virginia Tech’s number one option is Amani Hansberry, a 6’8 forward who takes 25.7% of the shots, and has a true shooting of 54%. The three ball hasn’t been dropping for him, only 22.6% on 31 shots, but has made 56.5% of his twos, draws 5.2 fouls per 40, and has a free throw rate of 43 free throws per 100 shots. He also grabs 11.3% of offensive rebound opportunities, 193rd best. Hansberry is averaging 16.3 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 2.6 assists.
Their two main guys running point are future NBA first round pick 6’9 Neoklis Avdalas, and former Kim English target 5’11 Ben Hammond.
Avdalas is taking 23.4% of the shots, has a 52.7% true shooting, a 29.1% assist rate, and a 13.2% turnover rate. The big Greek PG is shooting 34.1% from three, 50% from two, and a surprisingly low 64.5% from the line. That won’t really matter for Mason, but NBA draft people will not be big fans of that for his future shooting development. Neoklis is averaging 13.7 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 5 assists.
Hammond is less of a scorer, taking less shots and with a 48.4% true shooting, a 25.8% assist rate, and 13% turnover rate. His turnover numbers shot up recently, with him having 4 each in the last two games. I don’t have the exact numbers, but it was around 5% before that stretch. The 5’11 guard is shooting 29.4% from three.
Their other guy taking a lot of shots is Jailen Bedford at 22.9%, a 6’4 wing with a 22.9% true shooting, making 40% of his threes on 30 attempts.
6’5 wing Jaden Schutt has been an absolute shooter, making 43.4% of his threes on 53 attempts.
Freshman Christian Gurdak has been grabbing 20.4% of offensive rebound opportunities, albeit in only 9.4 minutes per game.
Defense
Virginia Tech is slightly above average at eFG% at 135, turnover percentage at 157th, and defensive rebounding at 141st. Their biggest advantages have been at keeping guys off the free throw line and having them miss their threes, with only 29 free throw attempts per 100 shots, 55th lowest, and opponents shooting only 29.7% from three, 67th.
Those corners are pretty well defended. Luckily for Mason, they are generally hitting more from straight on and the wings.
The Hokies have some defensive playmakers, with Amani Hansberry having a 4.1% block and 2.3% steal rate, Ben Hammond having a 4.6% steal rate, Izaiah Pasha having a 3.9% steal rate, and Tyler Johnson having a 2.1% and 2.5% block and steal rate.
Antonio Dorn, a seven-footer freshman getting limited playing time, although he started and played 30 minutes against South Carolina, who is committing 6.8 fouls per game. In his 30 minutes against SC, Dorn committed 4 fouls.
Virginia Tech Scouting Report (First Half vs South Carolina)
This game was on SEC Network so I had to listen to the announcers talk about how amazing the SEC is. Their main point was that South Carolina went 2-0 in the ACC/SEC challenge against 164th ranked Virginia Tech and 181st Boston College last season, and then proceeded to go 2-16 in SEC play. The SEC is the only conference where you get applauded for losing.
Offense
The offense likes to take advantage of fast breaks, hence the fast pace.
There are lots of clogged up paints. You see guys go to shoot floaters and there are 5 players combined in the paint with nobody open on the perimeter.
Avdalas doesn’t make as much separation as you would think. He will make cross-court passes and hit anybody who’s open. It’s kind of funny that he is going against South Carolina and former Dayton Flyer Mike Sharavjamts, as they are similar archetypes of player, just Avdalas is actually working out early in his career.
Neoklis’ passing is very impressive, as the ball always seems to go to the right place at the right time.
Hammond can get to the rim pretty easily but doesn’t finish at the rate you would want. He is small.
Hansberry is the roller in a lot of PnR plays.
Defense
Virginia Tech’s defense seemed like a pretty normal “switch when convenient” man look. They would briefly doubly on ball screens to stop the momentum of the handler. The Hokies could get beat by dribble drive penetration pretty badly.
Avdalas is a pretty good perimeter defender, but could be a mismatch problem if he has to go against a quick guard. The oversized PG can get beat in the post pretty badly.
Bedford is a really good perimeter defender.
What Does This Mean For Mason?
This is the game that could and should really put Mason on the map.
Mason will need Dola Adebayo to play up to the preseason hype he had built up. Someone needs to guard Avdalas and Hansberry, and Adebayo should be able to take one of those two.
Mincy and Jahari Long were both shooting over 5’9 Kareem Rozier when Mason played Winthrop, I could see something similar happening with 5’11 Ben Hammond, who is likely listed as higher than his height. If someone was actually 5’11, they would be listed at 6’0 for sure.
I predict a 71-65 victory for the Patriots. The Hokies have been pretty down ever since the Lawal injury, and Mason has been up.
This is a game that could either be really important when advocating for an at-large bid, or could be part of an unravelling Virginia Tech season that ends up not really mattering. Hopefully it is closer to the first scenario, except Mason is cutting down the nets in Pittsburgh.
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