Your 5-0 George Mason Patriots are taking on the 1-4 Ohio Bobcats of the MAC in the Sunshine Slam in Daytona Beach. It has been a rough season for them.
It seems as though the Bobcats will be without center Jalen Breath, who hasn’t played in the last two games, wing Jesse Burris, or wing Elijah Elliott. I am pretty confident Breath and Elliott are injured, but Burris did not play in their first or fourth game, while playing 5 and 17 minutes in their second and third games.
Jeff Boals has a record of 170-122 overall, and 115-80 at his alma mater. The former Ohio Bobcat has a 64-42 record in MAC play, so pretty good. Boals coached at Stony Brook for three seasons before heading to Ohio for the 2019-20 season. His teams played at a moderate pace historically, but spiked up to 43rd fastest in the country last season, and seems to be in that same stratosphere this year.
Ohio By The Numbers
Ohio is the 200th ranked team in the country per KenPom, with the offense being ranked 180th, and the defense being 241st. They came into the season as the 154th ranked team.
The Bobcats play at a decently fast pace, being listed at 71.6 possessions per game, 121st fastest. It seems like more of that pace comes from the defensive end, which is generally very bad if you are not forcing a large amount of turnovers, nor committing a lot.
Offense
This is definitely Ohio’s strong side of the ball, although it still is not great. Their eFG% is 49.2, 217th. They don’t turn it over too much, only 15.6% of the time, which is 102nd best. The offensive rebounding isn’t good, at only 26.1% of opportunities, 290th.
Shooting is definitely their weak point, as the Bobcats only shoot 25.7% from deep, 329th. On the bright side, they do not take too many threes, with only 33.6% of their shots coming from beyond the arc, which is 297th most.
Their strength is two-point shooting, as 54.5% of shots from inside the arc go in, and Ohio takes a lot of them. 58.8% of their points come from two, which is 10.6 percentage points above the average and puts them at 17th. If you stop the two, you stop the Bobcats.
Being red from the midrange is not exactly ideal. At least they are somewhat red in the paint.
Ohio’s number one option was Jalen Breath in the two games he played, but as I mentioned earlier, it does not seem likely he plays.
Their highest shot percentage is pretty close together with Aidan Hadaway at 25.9%, Jackson Paveletzke at 24.7%, and Javan Simmons at 24.6%.
Hadaway is a 6’8 big who is very efficient from two, making 69.2% of them, but is 3-21 from three on the season. He shot in the low 30s last season, so it isn’t like Aidan is in line for massive positive regression. His true shooting comes out to 54.8%, which is fine.
Jackson Paveletzke is their most efficient player by a decent margin, especially among players with volume. The 6’2 point guard has a 65.8% true shooting, and plays 90% of their minutes. He is shooting 47.1% from deep, which isn’t impossible to keep going as a 37.4% shooter. Paveletzke doesn’t live and die by the three, though, shooting 58% from two and drawing 6.6 fouls per 40.
6’7 forward Javan Simmons has potential to be really annoying, but is not efficient. Simmons has a true shooting of 49.9%, and draws 8.2 fouls per 40. Shooting 46.2% from two, 25% from three, and 64% from the line is not a great combo.
There are no other shooters with any volume who shoot at an above average clip, although Dior Conners shot 39.6% from deep on high volume with Appalachian State, and Ajay Sheldon shot 46.8% from three two years ago, but his other three seasons are all sub 30%.
Defense
Ohio’s pace on defense is pretty fast, 16.2 seconds, 104th fastest. That may be them just being shredded early, since they don’t turn it over at a high rate.
The elephant in the room is their three-point defense. 42.4%. 355th. I don’t know how. If you combine the three-point shooting averages of their opponents, it only comes out to 35.5%. They actually held Louisville to a below average shooting night for the Cardinals, which makes this more impressive.
The two-point defense is a decent bit better, with opponents making 53.3% of their twos, 214th. The eFG% is still pretty bad, with it being 57.5%, 326th.
The Bobcats don’t really force turnovers, only 15.9% of the time, 260th, and aren’t a dominant defensive rebounding team, allowing opponents to get 33.3% of OR opportunities, 226th.
The only two areas where Ohio is truly good are keeping opponents off the free throw line, only 34.4 attempts per 100 shots, 144th, and “forcing” non-steal turnovers, 9.8% of the time, 68th highest. It is early enough in the season that you cannot tell if the non-steal turnovers are lucky or truly forced.
Opponents are taking a decent amount of threes, with 41% of their shots coming from behind the arc. Average is 39.8%. I guess it is somewhat an accomplishment that their aren’t letting teams firebomb them from deep on an insane volume to go along with the efficiency.
This is absurd from outside. Just based on the left side of the paint being blue and the right being more red, while the right side also being blue from deep, I am guessing that whoever is on the right side likes to stay on the perimeter rather than help inside.
Nobody who gets major playing time really fouls too much, with their leading foul committer that plays over 40% of minutes being Javan Simmons at 4.3 per 40.
JJ Kelly seems to be their best defensive playmaker in terms of minute volume, with him having a 4.1% block rate in 54.5% of minutes.
Ohio Scouting Report (First Half vs. Bethune Cookman)
I was planning to do the Illinois State game, but then Ohio had to go and lose to Bethune Cookman, putting them in the same tier as the teams that were relegated to traveling for “Campus Games” for the Daytona Beach MTE.
Offense
There was a lot of dribble drive, but it seemed pretty unorganized. The offense looked like something you would see at a summer league game, where nobody really knows how to play with each other so they just take turns doing a simple concept.
Paveletzke can create his own shot. If you stop him, you stop Ohio. Simmons is very clunky. I see the advantage creation flashes but it is too inconsistent.
Defense
Ohio plays mostly man, although not too well. They would set up a 1-2-2 zone press, but it wasn’t real pressure or anything, and then would switch back to a matchup zone. I have never seen a softer press, and all it did was make them scramble around to get back to good matchups. The press did not work once.
The Bobcats would go under a lot of screens, and as you know by their three point percentage given up, they have been paying for it.
It felt like Ohio players wouldn’t really hustle for rebounds, letting it bounce towards them instead of attacking it like a baseball player to a ground ball, and they let up some rebounds where they were most certainly the closest team to the ball.
Simmons seems to be a pretty good post defender because of his size, but nobody else stuck out.
What Does This Mean For Mason?
This was supposed to be a game that would actually challenge Mason somewhat, like the equivalent of going on the road to the 11th best A10 team, but now it is like playing Fordham.
I expect something like a 70-60 win. I think Mason’s offense has a good not great game, and the defense plays pretty well, with Paveletzke getting his.
Mason will play the same result of the Loyola Marymount vs. Florida Atlantic game. I really hope its LMU, as they have a chance to end the season top 100.
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