Mason Hosts Jacksonville In An MTE Game

By
Palmer Johnson
-
36
368

Your 4-0 George Mason Patriots are taking on the 2-2 Jacksonville Dolphins of the Atlantic Sun Conference.

As of now, Jacksonville is projected to be middle of the pack in their conference.

The Dolphins are coached by Jordan Mincy, who has been running the show since the 2021-22 season. Mincy was an assistant coach under Mike White, now at Georgia, at Louisiana Tech and Florida. Jordan has an overall record of 71-59, and a 34-34 record in conference play. His teams are generally better on the defensive end, with that trend continuing so far this season.

Jacksonville By The Numbers

The Jacksonville Dolphins are the 245th ranked team in the country per KenPom, with the 289th offense and 175th defense.

This team isn’t too big, with their average height being about 6’4.9. For comparison, Mason’s is 6’6 on the nose. Average is 6’5.4.

Mincy has his guys playing pretty slow, with their tempo being 284th fastest, and their offensive possessions being 18.3 seconds long on average, 297th. That is a bit surprising, as three-point shooting teams tend to be flying down and taking the first ok three they see.

In their game against a non-D1, they had 85 possessions and won 132-45.

Offense

One look at their KenPom page explains why they struggle on offense, having a slightly above-average eFG% at 51.7%, 154th, but a 22.5% turnover rate, 329th, 28.8% offensive rebound rate, 227th, and only 23.1 free throws per 100 shots, which is 340th. So Jacksonville is ok at scoring on a per-shot basis, but they are doing all the things that get them extra chances very poorly.

Not a single player on their team has double digit free throws attempts across their three games against D1 teams.

The Dolphins shoot 31.4% from three, with 32.9% being average, but they take 49.7% of their shots from behind the arc, 31st most. That is always scary, because there is always a chance of a random spike game.

Jacksonville makes 56.3% of their twos, 87th highest, but the high volume of threes makes it so that they get an average amount of points from two.

As you can see, that paint is pretty red. I am guessing their post man likes to sit on the left side of the paint.

Chris Arias, a hometown kid, is their number one option, taking 30.9% of the shots during his minutes with a 64.6% true shooting, which is very good. A lot of that is based on him shooting 14-27 from three, which is somewhat real, as he shot 43.6% on 110 attempts last season. This is the guy who could cause an upset, as he shot 8-12 from three against VMI.

Jaylen Jones is another scorer with volume, taking 21.7% of the shots and having a 66% true shooting, with most of it coming from two. The problem with him is the 31.8% turnover rate while not being a significant handler, with a 16.8% assist rate.

Evan Sterck has a 37.4% assist rate compared to a 26.7% turnover rate. SOMETHING is happening with him on the court.

Their second option is Chris Lockett, who only plays 17 minutes a game, but takes up 26.7% of the shots during that time, with a 22.5% eFG. And he has 0 assists on the season. No comment.

6’9 big Donovan Rivers seems to be a pretty good offensive rebounder, with an 18.5% OR rate, which is 31st in the country.

Defense

Two of their three D1 games have been against teams in the Mason stratosphere in ranking, so the numbers won’t be too skewed one way or another.

The Dolphins are below average at eFG% given up, forcing turnovers, and sending teams to the line, being 236th, 253rd, and 308th ranked in those categories respectively.

Teams take a lot of twos against them, with only 35.5% of shots coming from behind the line, 101st least. That isn’t too good for them, as teams are making 56.1% of their twos, 272nd best.

Jacksonville’s best attribute is their defensive rebounding, as teams only grab 29% of offensive rebound opportunities against them, which is 135th best.

That paint is super red, except on the right side. I am not sure what that means, maybe they have a good wing help defender on that side.

Donovan Rivers is a really good rebounder, grabbing 18.4% of defensive rebounding opportunities, but commits 7.9 fouls per 40. He is getting that ball. Rivers is the most balanced in terms of defensive playmaking, with a 2% block rate and 3.1% steal rate.

A lot of Dolphins have 0 blocks on the season. 6’6 Hayden Wood and 6’7 Jason Thirdkill are the only ones with high block rates, at 5.1% and 5%.

Along with his struggles on offense, Chris Lockett commits 6.2 fouls per 40. Enrico Borio commits 5.3, Allen Udemadu commits 8.3, Jaylen Jordon commits 10.3. That makes sense with the volume of twos team take, while also making a lot of them.

Jacksonville Scouting Report (First Half vs. High Point)

High Point is a good barometer for how they will do against Mason since it’s a road game against a team close to Mason in the rankings.

Offense

There is a lot of quick perimeter ball movement to probe the defense. There were also a lot of post-to-cutter passes.

Jaylon Jones really likes to drive to the hoop, but can be careless with the ball.

Sterck is a drive and kick machine who can get past his man but also create separation on the perimeter.

Jacksonville had an early lead because of Rivers’ offensive rebounding, who can also find the open man if doubled.

Thirdkill is a lob threat.

The Dolphins struggled against High Point’s 1-3-1 zone.

Defense

Jones struggles to stay in front of his man.

If the center is out of the paint, the defense is rough.

Jacksonville doubled on ball screens a lot, will occasionally lose trailing shooters, and like to drop into a 1-3-1 zone, although they struggle to close passing lanes.

What Does This Mean For Mason?

This should be a game where Allenspach, Kanga, and Ellington eat. Jacksonville has a lot of bigs, but they have a lot of bigs who foul a ton. I would not be surprised if they drew 15 fouls between the three.

I expect an 80-60 victory, as I really do not think that the Dolphins will be able to stop Mason from getting inside, nor forcing them to miss.

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