Your George Mason Patriots, at 22-6 and 13-2, are taking on the 12-16 and 7-8 Duquesne Dukes.
The Dukes are coached by Dru Joyce, who is in his first season as a head coach, so his record is Duquesne’s record. He was the top assistant under Keith Dambrot, who retired after their tournament run. It makes sense to promote within and try to run it back, even with them losing their two stars from that team. Joyce may have had the job in early January, when the Dambrot retirement rumors started.
Duquesne By The Numbers
Duquesne is the 143rd ranked team on KenPom, with the 216th offense and 102nd defense. They have become more balanced in conference play, with the seventh offense and sixth defense.
Joyce has his guys playing at a pretty slow pace, 65.4 possessions per game, which is 11th. It seems like this is more of them taking control of games, as they have the 13th shortest offensive possession length, but the fifth shortest defensive possession length.
Offense
The Dukes’ offense is decently balanced, being below-average at everything except offensive rebounding, where they are third at 32.5%. Duquesne is 10th in eFG%, 9th in turnover rate, 11th in free throw rate, 8th in three-point shooting, and 10th in two-point shooting.
They are last in free throw shooting at 65.5%, which can be explained by their top free throw taker being their worst maker. I’ll get to him later.
The most recent conference champions are taking slightly more threes than average at 43.6%, which is sixth. That also lines up with their assist rate ranking.
Chart credits to CBBAnalytics
Duquesne has been pretty bad at the rim all season, which is not a good recipe for success, and have been significantly worse at shooting threes in February than they were in December and January.
The Dukes do not really have a true number one option, having more of 1A and 1B in Tre Dinkins and Jahsean Corbett, at 25.9% and 23% shot rates.
Tre Dinkins has been very efficient, with a 55.6% True Shooting rate, 23rd, shooting 35.9% from three on 103 attempts, and 51.4% from two on 70. He’s also contributed with his passing, with a 23% assist rate, 11th, and a 15.6% turnover rate, which is pretty good for his shot rate.
Jahsean Corbett is probably not ready to be the 1B option, but they may have no other option. Corbett has an true shooting of 42.2%, which means they average .844 points on possessions where he shoots a shot or foul shots. That is not good. It makes more sense when you consider the Chicago State transfer is shooting 3-18 from three, making only 43.5% of his twos, and shooting an awful 46.9% at the line. He has the 20th highest free throw rate in the conference, and it makes sense such an awful free throw conversion rate.
We need to give Maximus Edwards a bit of an apology, and some props to Dru Joyce for sticking with him. Edwards was absurdly bad early in the season, but now has become a plus option when it comes to scoring, with a 63.7% true shooting, making 38.3% of his 47 threes, 13th, and 68.8% of his 32 twos, 4th.
Cam Crawford has been a sniper from three, making 44.8% of his 58 threes, which is third in the conference.
David Dixon has made himself somewhat of an outside threat, shooting 4-13 in conference play, 30.8%. Of course, that sample size is very small, but it seems high enough that you cannot repeatedly forget about him in the corner. Along with that, he is the 11th best offensive rebounder in the conference at 10.4%.
Outside of the previously mentioned guys, they do not have many shooters. Matus Hronsky is hitting 32.1% of his 53 threes, Kareem Rozier 28.6% of his 49, and Jakub Necas 15.8% of his 38.
Necas has been disappointing, as he has taken a step back from his freshman season despite being considered a big breakout candidate.
Defense
The Dukes thrive when forcing turnovers, getting them 19.7% of the time, 3rd. This explains a decent bit of why their defensive possession lengths are so short.
Another explanation for why their defensive possessions are so short is a much worse one. Duquesne sends teams to the line the most in the conference, at 43.3 foul shots per 100 field goal attempts.
Everywhere else, they are okayish, with the eighth best eFG% given up, tenth best offensive rebound rate given up, ninth in three-pointers, and eighth in twos.
Teams are taking only 35.1% of their shots from behind the arc, which is third lowest. Teams have a pretty high assist rate against them, being third highest at 55.4%. Generally, threes and assist rate go hand-in-hand, so they’re giving up a lot of assisted twos. This could be them gambling for steals and getting beat backdoor.
Chart credits to CBBAnalytics
The rim defense was sick in December, but has gotten worse each month. As of February, the defense is pretty balanced, not excelling in any area too much.
Some of their players can definitely be taken advantage of when it comes to drawing fouls, with Eli Wilborn, David Dixon, Chabi Barre, and Jakub Necas averaging 8.1 (???) fouls per 40 minutes, 6.2, 5.4, and 4.8 respectively.
Fun fact, if you click on Eli Wilborn’s KenPom page, the most similar season to his is 2021-22 Malik Henry.
David Dixon is fifth in the conference in block rate at 9.5%, although I am not sure that makes up for the fouls. With that being said, I am still a fan of the hopefully Duquesne-lifer. He is fun to me. Along with that, Dixon is a great defensive rebounder, at 20.1%, 12th in the conference.
Chabi Barre plays very limited minutes, but has a 14.6% block rate in them.
Duquesne has a decent amount of defensive playmakers, with Eli Wilborn having a 6.1% block rate and 2.4% steal rate and Jakub Necas being at 4.7% and 1.8%. Tre Dinkins, Cam Crawford, Jahsean Corbett, Maximus Edwards, Kareem Rozier, and Matus Hronsky all have steal rates at 2% or higher, which is the benchmark for being an active defender.
It needs to be mentioned, somehow Edwards is 5th in the conference in defensive rebound percentage, which is crazy from a 6’5 wing known for his scoring.
Duquesne Scouting Report (Second Half vs. Fordham)
This is their most recent home game.
Offense
There are a lot of ball-screens with Eli Wilborn.
The team is overall pretty good at passing in transition.
The offense looked worse to me with Rozer in. He takes a lot of bad shots and takes up a lot of time dribbling. I do not like his pull-up midranges ten seconds into the possession.
Wilborn is violent in the post, and has lots of efforts on rebounds and putbacks.
David Dixon had a pretty limited post game, but is a good lob threat.
Corbett is a pretty good connective passer, and his post possessions look awesome when they go well.
Tre Dinkins can make outlet passes.
Defense
Duquesne played a lot of matchup zone, along with a decent bit of man press.
David Dixon is dangerous if he can sit at the rim, and is pretty good at drop coverage. I am not sure if it will matter against Jalen Haynes and Gio Emejuru, but Matt Zona was drilling threes when Dixon kept leaving him and closing out late. The Duquesne center is pretty fiery.
Corbett was pretty good at entry denial.
Dinkins can get beat pretty easily if he is too aggressive, which happened a decent bit when he full-court pressed Jackie Johnson.
Wilborn tries to make plays, and is a big effort guy. He is a decent post defender, but can struggle on the perimeter.
Cam Crawford can get beat on the perimeter if he has to cover a guard.
What Does This Mean for Mason?
This is by far the hardest of Mason’s last three games. With that being said, I think Mason wins 65-60. I think it is somewhat of a defensive slugfest, with some bigs probably fouling out. Hopefully they are wearing blue.
Jalen Haynes is a pretty great foul-drawer, at 5.4 per 40, sixth. This lines up with David Dixon and Eli Wilborn, Duquesne’s two centers, committing 6.2 and 8.1 fouls per 40. The third guy who plays center is stretch four Jakub Necas, who still averages 4.8 per 40. The fourth big is Chabi Barre, who commits 5.4 per 40. If Chabi Barre is in the game, it is most likely going well for Mason.
Mason does well when they get fouled, and Duquesne fouls a lot. Jalen Haynes, we need a 8-12 day from you from the line.
A win would put Mason at 14-2, which is unreal.
