Your first place (yippee) George Mason Patriots, at 19-5 and 10-1, are taking on the bounce-back (kinda) Saint Louis Billikens, who are 14-10 and 7-4.
SLU was supposed to be a shoe-in top four team, and then had an incredibly disappointing non-con. Now they’re third in the conference, and likely to get a double bye, where everyone expected them to be.
The Billikens are coached by Josh Schertz (Schertz vs. Skinn). This is his first season at SLU, with his previous time coming at Indiana State and Lincoln Memorial, where he turned them into a D2 powerhouse. Schertz has a record of 80-50 at the D1 level. His last team at Indiana State was considered a tournament snub.
Gibson Jimerson was listed as a game-time decision, but it seems as though he has participated in shootaround today. The Vegas line has moved toward him playing. Kellen Thames is also out of the lineup, but I am not sure whether he fell out or is injured. They also lost Larry Hughes Jr. earlier in the season.
Saint Louis By The Numbers
Saint Louis has is the 114th ranked team on KenPom, with the 140th offense and 120th defense. Nobody in their right mind would have predicted that this team’s defense would outperform the offense. In conference play, they are ranked 10th and 4th.
Schertz has them playing at a moderately fast 67.9 possessions per game, 6th in the conference.
The first-year HC loves to play his starters, with Gibson Jimerson and Isaiah Swope getting 94.4% and 91.7%, 3rd and 10th in the country, of the minutes. They are 2nd and 4th in minutes in conference play. SLU is last in the country in bench minutes, which makes sense with their injuries and loss of Larry Hughes.
Offense
The offense has struggled in conference play since they lead the A10 in turnover rate at 20.9%, while also having the 2nd lowest offensive rebound rate at 21.6%. The only reason they are 10th and not 15th is because the Billikens have the best eFG% in A10 play.
SLU is shooting 63.4% from two, the highest in the conference, but 30.9% from three, and take the most threes in the league, 48.2%.
Chart credit to CBBAnalytics
As you can see, the paint has been big and red all season. I do like how they do not shoot midranges.
Robbie Avila is their star, and has a True Shooting of 61%, 7th in the conference, with a 21.6% assist rate and 25.4% turnover rate. He draws 5.1 fouls per 40, 8th, and has the third highest free throw rate, free throws per 100 shots, at 57.1.
SLU’s shooting is struggling since all three of Avila, Jimerson, and Isaiah Swope are shooting below average from three at 32.4%, 30.6%, and 32.3%. Outside of them, the only other player who shoots threes at more than one a game is Kobe Johnson, who has hit 44.4% of his 27 attempts and leads the conference in both eFG and TS at 71.9% and 74.1%.
Jimerson, a sixth year senior, is at least making 63.8% of his twos, so it is not all bad. Swope is making 62.2% of his. They will also be taking most of the shots on the floor, assuming Jimerson plays.
Maybeee they should be taking more twos, but that is just me. More twos might make their efficiency go down, but with the 10th offense in the conference, you might want to try something different. Then again, their problem isn’t eFG%, it’s turnovers and rebounding.
Defense
The Billikens once again dominate in eFG%, but struggle with turnovers and rebounding. On this end, the struggle isn’t as bad, being 13th and 10th in forcing turning and defensive rebounding. They also have kept their opponents off the line, having the second lowest defensive free throw rate at 23.9.
The defense is helped greatly by their league-best 25.2% three-point defense. They don’t lack from two, as opponents are only shooting 47.1%, 5th.
Chart credit to CBBAnalytics
That is crazy defense in January. It is not bad in February, but January looks like an elite team.
Nobody except Amari McCottry and Killian Brockhoff get into foul trouble often, at 5 and 4.4 fouls per 40, but they do not play major minutes.
Robbie Avila, Kalu Anya, Amari McCottry, Kobe Johnson, and Max Pikaar are defensive playmakers to some extent, with Avila having a 3.3% block rate and 2.1% steal rate, Anya 5.3 and 1.9, McCottry 1.6 and 5.5, Johnson 1.7 and 2.4, and Pikaar at 9.2 and 1.3
Saint Louis Scouting Report (First Half vs. Dayton)
Offense
There was a rough patch where they scored 2 points in 8+ minutes, which is bound to happen when you shoot so many threes. They were not good threes, a lot of them would have been fine if you shot them with 10 or less on the shot clock.
The offense looks like it really wants to throw entry passes to Avila a lot. Avila was pretty disappointing, since he got locked up by 6’0 Malachi Smith on multiple possessions in the post.
There are a lot of threes as you may guess, and they are looking to shoot them in transition
A lot of possessions end with Swope isoball, who seems like an upgraded Devin Dinkins, a sub 6’0 guard who is not a true point guard.
Jimerson is the college version of Corey Kipsert. Dayton was forcing Gibson to create with the ball in his hands on the perimeter and it was not going well for the super super senior.
On offense, Dylan Warlick is truly an old-fashioned “small forward”.
Defense
The defense seemed like a mostly man system. It was collapsing pretty hard on drives and they were struggling to get back to the shooters.
The Billikens dropped into a 3-2 zone for the last possession of the half and Dayton got a good shot at the rim.
SLU tries to make sure that Avila does not have to cover guards.
Jimerson can get caught on screens off-ball and get lost, but he does not need a screen to get lost.
Kalu Anya is a very good defender, and Swope is a decent one.
Avila was not doing an awful job on Zed Key.
What Does This Mean for Mason?
This is probably the best team Mason has played so far, and it will be on the road, so even harder. The Patriots did well on the road against Dayton and the Bonnies, so I have pretty decent confidence that they will perform up to the standard.
I am predicting a 65-60 victory for Mason. I think the offense will do okay, and the defense will perform very well.
This could be one of those games where Jalen Haynes goes 8-10.
