Your first place (woo) George Mason Patriots, at 18-5, 9-1, are taking on the 15-7 and 4-6 Rhode Island Rams. Rhody is the only team to beat Mason in conference play. Don’t give them a sweep.
This is Mason’s homecoming game, and should have the highest attendance of the season. You do not want a letdown in a game like this.
A lot of information can be found in the article I wrote about their first matchup, so read that first.
Speaking of the first matchup, Mason lost a heartbreaker 62-59. The Patriots had a 12-point lead and then the offense really struggled, with Haynes scoring 6 points on 10 possessions, and nobody else really stepping up. The team overall shot 2-17 from three, which is going to be tough to win with.
On the bright side, nobody outside of Sebastian Thomas had any real impact on the offensive end, besides Javonte Brown’s six offensive rebounds.
Senior wing Quentin Diboundje hit a massive shot in his sparing minutes against Mason, and did not play last game after getting seven minutes in the previous one. Either he is out of the rotation, or is injured. I cannot find anything about an injury from him on Twitter.
Rhode Island By The Numbers
The Rhode Island Rams are the 122nd ranked team on KenPom, with the 165th offense and 118th defense.
I will be purely using conference numbers since we are so deep in A10 play and Mason played them already.
Archie Miller has his guys playing extremely fast, 2nd in the conference at 70 possessions per game. Most of that comes on offense, as they have the second shortest possession length on that end, with the 9th shortest on defense.
Sebastian Thomas plays 93.8% of minutes, which is third highest. This makes sense, since there really are not any other go-to guys on offense.
Something that is pretty surprising to me is that Tyonne Farrell is near the end of the rotation. He was looking like a high-end glue guy at the turn of non-con into A10 play, but has now only played 21% of minutes. He has missed five games, but even then, 42% of minutes seems pretty low. Farrell missed the previous 5 games before Fordham, getting 8 in that one.
David Fuchs seems to be the best rebounder in the conference, with the highest offensive and defensive rebound rates, at 14.9% and 25.8%. I said this in the first article, I hope he stays at Rhody. He is the type of guy you want to play at your program for four years.
Rhody kind of gets owned at the rim on both ends, with the 2nd highest block rate on offense, and 2nd lowest block rate on defense. That might say something about this team.
Offense
The Rhody Rams have the 12th ranked offense in conference play. That is pretty rough. It makes sense when you consider they have the 10th best eFG%, 12th lowest turnover rate, and the 9th best offensive rebound rate. Their only positive attribute on this end is that the Rams get to the line a lot, at 39 free throws per 100 shots, 2nd highest.
Chart credit to CBBAnalytics.
That is really not good…anywhere…left corner? You cannot have a big blue blob at the rim and expect to have your offense play well, especially if the perimeter is not bright and big red.
Sebastian Thomas’ efficiency has been a little lower than you would like for a guy taking 28.2% of the shots, with an eFG of 50%, with a better TS of 54.4%. Thomas has made 30% of his 60 threes, but only 67.9% of his free throws, which is kind of low for a guard. As you would expect from him, he has the 5th highest assist rate at 27.6%, and a pretty low turnover rate at 12.5%. Along with all of that, Bassy is drawing 6.4 fouls per 40, 2nd highest, and is shooting 54 free throws per 100 shots, 6th highest.
Jaden House and Cam Estevez have struggled to shoot from outside, both at 25% on 24 attempts.
Jamarques Lawrence has been fine, making 31.4% of his 51 shots, but, as expected, David Green has been lights out, albeit at a bit lower volume than you’d think, making 44.4%, 4th, of his 27 attempts. He’s missed three games, but even then, that is low.
House has a turnover rate of 20.1%, and Lawrence is at 26%. You can do something with that.
Javonte Brown, David Fuchs, and House are drawing 4.1, 4.1, and 4.7 fouls per 40. The first two make sense, since they play the 5, but a guard doing that is pretty good, especially since he makes 81.8% of them.
Defense
The Rams have the 9th ranked defense, and the numbers show it at about average. They have the 7th best eFG% given up, 10th best turnovers forced rate, and 7th best defensive rebounding rate. Their bright spot is that teams are only making 27.8% of threes, the trade-off is that those teams are making 53.9% of their twos, 12th lowest.
Chart credit to CBBAnalytics.
As you can see, Rhody kinda struggles on the interior, which is a bit surprising with a seven-footer. Until February, they definitely guarded the perimeter very well.
Rhody has some defensive playmakers, with Thomas having the 9th highest steal rate at 3.3%, and Javonte Brown having the 8th highest block rate at 8.2%.
Rhode Island Scouting Report (First Ten Minutes vs. Fordham)
I’m only going to cover the first ten minutes, and only new stuff I see since I have already watched them and wrote about it.
Offense
This team thrives with Sebastian Thomas running in transition, but they are not forcing the turnovers for that to be a sustainable form of offense.
It seems like they let Jaden House, who is dangerous to both teams, take the ball up in the half-court and Thomas in the fast break.
Javonte Brown can get bad tunnel vision in the post and shoot from crazy angles.
Defense
The Rams got beat right off the start with a lob, and then Javonte Brown got beat again on it shortly thereafter, which forced Archie to put in Fuchs a bit earlier than he wanted. Mason has some guys in Woody Newton, Jared Billups, and Gio Emejuru who could take advantage of that.
Jamarques Lawrence got eaten alive by a screen.
What Does This Mean For Mason?
This will be a big test for Jalen Haynes, as Javonte Brown gave him the most trouble he’s had ever since becoming a plus player at the end of November. If Haynes wins the big matchup, it is hard to imagine Mason losing.
I think Mason wins this one 65-55. The defense combined with Rhody’s rough offense should make it difficult for the Rams to score near a point per possession. Mason’s offense should get around the 1 ppp mark.
This is a huge game for the Patriots, as VCU is still just a game behind, and you do not want to disappoint your fans for homecoming.
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