Your once again FIRST PLACE George Mason Patriots are taking on the St. Bonaventure Bonnies, 15-4 and 3-3.
Woody Newton may have a thumb injury, which seems to have reduced his playing time, but not getting him out of the GW game, as he came back near the end.
The Bonnies seem to be missing their starting three, Chance Moore, per @Bonnieshoops on Twitter/X. This is a big deal, as Moore was on pace to be an All-A10 player before conference play started, and is a big presence on the glass. It is hard to tell who will be in his place, as Miles Rose, Duane Thompson, and Noah Bolanga got 20, 17, and 14 minutes in the game where Moore only played 12.
Dasante Bowen has also been out since their December 14th game against Providence, so I do not expect him to play until he is listed as questionable.
St. Bonaventure is coached by Mark Schmidt, who has been with the Bonnies since the 2007-08 season and has a 399-320 record overall, 317-230 with the Bonnies, and a 149-133 record in A10 play.
Steve Curran is 1-0 against the Bonnies with Mason. Make it 2-0.
St. Bonaventure was a big wildcard, with lots of transfers, and Noel Brown being their only returning rotation player. It seems like they have somewhat hit the high end of their possible outcomes.
St. Bonaventure By The Numbers
St. Bonaventure is the 88th ranked team, with the 114th offense and 78th defense per KenPom. In conference play, they have had the 2nd offense and 11th defense, which is a bit backward from OOC.
The Bonnies are a pretty big team, with the average height being 6’6.2, which is 48th highest.
Schmidt has a history of not playing his bench, and that has continued. Bonny only has 18.6% of the minutes coming from his non-starters, which is 362nd most. There are 364 D1 teams.
This makes more sense when you see that he has three starters playing over 80% of the minutes, with Melvin Council getting 89.2%, 24th, Chance Moore (out) playing 84.4%, 104th, and Lajae Jones playing 82.5%, 175th.
Schmidt’s teams generally have a bit of variance over the years with pace, but this has been his slowest team since 2011-12, with a tempo of 63.6 possessions per game, 343rd. In 2012, 63 per game was 269th, because of the 35 second shot clock.
Offense
The Bonnies are slightly above average at pretty much everything, except giving up turnovers, where they are comfortably above average, at only 16.1% of the time, 86th.
St. Bonaventure doesn’t take too many threes, only 34.9% of the time, 281st, and doesn’t have too many assists, only 42.7%, which is 346th.
Melvin Council is their main shot-taker, taking 27.1% of them during his minutes. Council has been somewhat of a volume scorer, with an true shooting of 51.3%, which isn’t incredible, but it gets the job done. The Wagner transfer provides some good not great shooting, at 35.6%.
Jonah Hinton has been a secondary guy, taking 23.1% of the shots, once again with an OK true shooting of 51.5%. He also provides a wee bit of shooting at 35.5%.
Lajae Jones has been an incredible on offense, with a true shooting of 61.7%, 148th best. He’s been hitting 50.7% of his twos, and a blazing 43.5% of his threes, which is 98th highest.
Nobody besides Chance Moore and Dasante Bowen draw too many fouls, both of which are out.
Duane Thompson and Noah Bolanga are the only others who take threes, with Thompson, a redshirt freshman, making 35.3% of his 17 attempts, and Bolanga making 10% of his 20 attempts.
I’m gonna guess that Lajae Jones sets up in the right corner. That paint is also pretty red.
Defense
The Bonnies were doing very well in the non-con, giving up an eFG of 48.6% on the whole season, which is 94th, and forced turnovers 18.8% of the time, 100th. In A10 play, that eFG has risen to 55%, 13th, and the turnover rate has fallen to 14.4%, 12th.
In line with that, Bonny opponents were shooting 32.7% from three and 48.3% from two, which are 143rd and 93rd, but in conference play, that has risen to 37.1%, 13th, and 54.3%, 12th.
Opponents on the season are taking 49% of their shots from behind the arc, which is top 10 most. In conference play, that has risen to 55.2%, which is insane, and is the most. 37.1% from three and a LOT of threes are not a good defensive combo.
What St. Bonaventure is very good at is getting defensive rebounds, 26th best, with opponents only getting 25.8% of ORB opportunities, and keeping opponents off the free throw line, allowing only 23.1 free throws per 100 shots, 9th best.
Nobody in the rotation besides Xander Wedlow, a 6’10 freshman center at 6.2 per 40, seems like they foul too much, which makes sense for a team that plays their starters so much.
They have some defensive playmakers on this team, which isn’t the exact formula for who is effective, but it is the best we can do without watching. Melvin Council has a 3.9% steal rate, which is 70th highest, Chance Moore has a 5.3% block rate, and Lajae Jones has a 3.8% block rate and 2.6% steal rate.
It seems like Noel Brown does a pretty good job defending the rim. That corner is pretty rough though.
St. Bonaventure Scouting Report (First Half vs. Duquesne)
I usually try to get a game at the same venue Mason will be playing them at, but since Chance Moore got injured during this game, it would be better to see them like this.
Offense
A lot of the offense is them trying to get an entry pass to Noel Brown, who will either pass it back out or take a one-on-one shot. Think Kim English with Josh Oduro. When they cannot get the ball to their center, the offense gets pretty rough. If Noel cannot beat his man 1 on 1, it also gets rough.
Brown is a very solid player, but I do not understand how the offense flows through him. It has not worked in this game. It is crazy how much he gets the ball, from what I have seen, and has a 5.8% assist rate. Noel is a bit of a line-stepper when it comes to traveling or staying on that pivot foot.
Duquesne went into a 3-2 zone, and Bonny eventually broke it and got a good three. This was the only zone possession.
The Bonnies would sometimes try to turn semi-fast breaks into real fast breaks.
Melvin Council moves pretty quick, and can get past his man at a decent rate. When he drives, the PG is good at deciding whether to actually shoot or pass is the better option.
Mason cannot leave Lajae Jones open. He can also take stepback threes.
Jonah Hinton can past his man on a drive.
Defense
Bonny played a lot of matchup zone, along with a lot of traditional zones. Sometimes they would put in a soft press. The Bonnies went into a 1-3-1 and 2-3 zone, and Duquesne was loving it, getting open shots on most possessions. They stayed in it for way too long. Their zones also lead to giving up offensive rebounds.
St. Bonaventure really struggled to stay on shooters, especially if there were off-ball screens. There were a lot of slow closeouts. Bonny gave up way too many open threes.
They are also susceptible to cross-court passes.
Lajae Jones is a pretty good defender, along with Council.
What Does This Mean for Mason?
As long as Haynes can handle Noel Brown, and Jared Billups/KD Johnson can stay in front of Melvin Council, there should be a clear path to victory.
If Mason wins this game, that is when they go from a team that I think should be a double-bye, to a team where they could actually compete for the one seed.
I predict that Mason wins this 65-55. I think Mason’s defense outperforms Bonny’s offense, and Mason’s offense and Bonny’s defense cancel each other out.
