The Spiders Come to Fairfax

By
Palmer Johnson
-
87
1363
Photo credits to @ByGeorgeGMU on Twitter/X

Your 10-5 and 1-1 George Mason Patriots are looking to get back in the win column versus the 7-8 and 2-0 Richmond Spiders.

The Patriots are looking to get past a heartbreaking loss, where Mason lead by 12 late in the first half.

The Spiders are coached by Chris Mooney, who has been with the team since the 2005-06 season, and is the longest tenured coach in the conference. Mooney has an overall record of 372-288, and a record of 354-276 at Richmond. That one season’s worth of games was at Air Force. In the A10, he has a record of 177-133. Pretty good.

Richmond was picked middle-of-the-pack before last season, and ended up winning the regular season title. This gave them some benefit of the doubt coming into the year, and they squandered all of that throughout out-of-conference play.

The Spiders have gained some favor back though, going 2-0 in their first two A10 games, albeit in a home game against GW, who just beat Dayton in DC, and a road one against UMass, who many have picked to finish last.

It seems like the infinite transfer rule may hurt Mooney’s style a lot more, as players who go to Richmond, no matter their college experience, generally struggle initially, and then progress rapidly after their first season. With guys leaving and coming in every year, unless you it a home run like Jordan King or slam dunk in Neal Quinn, it will be incredibly tough for Mooney to compete the way he is used to.

Richmond By The Numbers

Richmond is the 218th ranked team on KenPom, with 229th ranked offense, and 211th defense. Through two conference games, against GW and UMass, they have the 7th offense and 3rd defense.

Mooney has his guys playing at a methodical pace, 66.8 possessions per game, which is 257th. They play similar to Davidson, although they are less likely to pull an open three early in the possession.

On offense, I knew the shooting was bad, but I did not realize the extent of it. As a team, the Spiders shoot 28.5% from three, which is 334th. They also 48.5% of their shots from deep, which is 25th highest. That’s already a bad efficiency-volume combo. But the worst part is that they have no shooters.

Their best shooter is Apostolos Roumoglou, the UConn transfer, who is shooting 32.3% on 65 attempts. If you’re taking the 25th highest amount of threes, 32.3% has to be at the end of your shooting totem pole.

While we’re on it, Dusan Neskovic, the Dartmouth transfer, is shooting 26.5% on 68 attempts, DeLonnie Hunt 29.5% on 44, Mikkel Tyne 25.4% on 63, Jason Roche 31.4% on 51, and B Artis White 20.8% on 24. The most surprising ones there are Hunt and Roche, as they were with the team in the past, and each have histories as good shooters in some form, whether it be a decent bit in the past, for Roche, or last season with the team, for Hunt.

Mooney is a smart guy. I do not get why they’re going so hard for threes that are not going in. Are they to the point where the Spiders think their best chance of winning is throwing up a ton of threes and hoping that 1/4 nights you catch fire?

Something that generally happens with Princeton offenses is that they do not grab offensive rebounds, which makes sense since those teams play five-out. The Mooney-coached squad follows this, with a 21.1% offensive rebound rate, which is 352nd in the country. In their two conference play games, it has gone up to 26.3%, which is 8th in the A10. This could be two weird games, or in-season adjustments.

Richmond’s biggest strength is that they don’t turn the ball over, having a 14.3% turnover rate, 21st lowest in the country. In conference play, that number has dropped to 11.4%, which is the lowest in the A10.

Another strength is that the Spiders take and make a lot of free throws, shooting 39.1 per 100 shots, and making 80.2% of them, which is 9th. They actually get the 9th biggest distribution of their points from the line, at 25.2%.

You’ve gotta change something man. There cannot be that much blue from three, where you get a lot of your points. At least that corner looks pretty big and red.

Dusan Neskovic, #7, is a 6’8 forward/big wing, who takes 31.6% of the shots when he is on the court. In conference play, that number has jumped up to 39.5%, which is insane, and as you might guess, is 1st. The Dartmouth transfer kinda doesn’t really do much besides score.

Jonathan Beagle, their 6’10 center, and Mike Walz, a 6’11 center, “only” have assist rates of 24.4% and 23.3%, which is a decent bit lower than they are used to at the center position. Both are juniors, so if they stay, that could be a problem for the 2026 A10, especially Beagle.

DeLonnie Hunt is their best player, doing a lot on both ends. He plays 89.1% of possible minutes, which is 28th highest in the country. Along with that, Hunt gets to the line at the 25th highest rate in the nation. His eFG is only 47.3%, but his true shooting (takes FT into account) is all the way up at 58.2%. I think that is the biggest difference between eFG% and TS% I have ever seen.

On defense, Richmond’s biggest strength is limiting offensive boards to only 25.9%, which is 32nd.

Their biggest weaknesses are fouling a lot and not forcing turnovers, being 299th and 305th in those categories. During the small sample size we have in conference play, the fouling has remained a problem, but forcing turnovers has gotten a lot better, 22%, which is actually the top in the league. It seems like it is actually them and not their opponents, as UMass and GW are 5th and 8th lowest in terms of turnover rate in their two conference games.

Teams shoot a lot of threes against them, 47.3%, which is top 15 most. They make those threes, as 35.4% of them go in, 273rd.

Their defensive point distribution is pretty odd, with them giving up the 21st most from three, and 62nd most from free throws. I guess they foul whenever possible on good twos.

The right side being so much better than the left is odd. Generally, when one side of paint is blue, that side’s corner is more red, but it is pretty similar. Straight on and left wing look like they really are not being defended well. Darius Maddox, this is your get right game.

Richmond Scouting Report (1st Half vs. UMass)

On offense, as you might expect, there are a lot of backdoor cut passes from the center. The backdoor cuts are just endless, and you cannot stop them all.

The Spiders can get through man presses pretty well. If they see an opportunity, they’ll try to turn breaking the press into a fast break.

If you help off your man, Richmond will get it to an open guy. I’m not saying they’ll make you pay, but someone gets an open shot.

The spacing can get clunky when the center goes into the paint without the ball, especially on the strong side of the court. If the center being in the paint is designed, the guards can use him as a sealer/wall.

The Spiders would rather take bad threes than bad twos.

DeLonnie Hunt likes to do a lot of drive and kicking. After he kicks, Hunt might sit in the dunker spot, hoping they forget about him. The former Wagner transfer is shifty and can go from a crossover to a three very quickly.

Mikkel Tyne attempts to shoot when he goes past a ball-screen.

Mike Walz will pull from three late in the shot clock. The center threatens to take threes a lot more than he actually attempts them, but can definitely hit it from behind the arc. Walz will make cross-court passes, with the balls having a lot of velocity on them. Hopefully Mason’s length can stop a couple of these.

Dusan Neskovic takes fadeaway midranges, and is kind of a shot chucker at times.

5’10 B Artis White can get his passes deflected if he tries to throw it over a defender.

Jonathan Beagle is mobile enough that he can do the cutting action.

Roumoglou is a very good passer, enough that I could see him and Beagle switching roles offensively.

On defense, Richmond opened up in a matchup zone, which immediately led to a miscommunication and an open three. They do occasionally run a man press.

The Spiders do not contest guys who they believe are bad shooters. They may leave Woody Newton very open.

There is lots of helping in the Richmond defense. This is especially needed when the Spiders run a lineup with both 5’10 Mikkel Tyne and 5’10 B Artis White, which is rare, but I did see it happen.

The team does a pretty good job of stopping fast breaks, and will try to draw charges. The Spiders do have a decent amount of defensive miscommunications when they do not have the time to get the defense set.

For individual guys, Neskovic is not a very good defender. He struggles in the post, and looks pretty rough on the perimeter. Jason Roche can get blown by pretty easily. Beagle is a decent help defender, but can look pretty rough on the perimeter. Walz is a good defensive rebounder. Hunt is a very good defender. Apostolos Roumoglou is a decent post defender, while being pretty good on the perimeter

What Does This Mean For Mason?

I think if Mason runs a two big lineup, Richmond will either have to have both of their centers out there, or have to deal with Neskovic guarding Jalen Haynes. I can’t find the numbers with both of their centers on the court, but their minutes add up to less than 100%, and none of their 10 most frequent lineups over the last 5 games have them together on KenPom.

My prediction for this game is that Mason wins 75-60. Richmond just does not have the pieces to win, unless they have an insane game from three. There’s too many guys who do nothing except shoot, and are not shooting well this season. And once again, Mason plays against a team that doesn’t offensive rebound or force turnovers.

Besides great shooting, the easiest path for the Spiders to win is to get both Haynes and/or Emejuru in foul trouble early, which is possible, since Neskovic, Hunt, and Beagle combine for 16.7 fouls drawn per 40 minutes.

It is time to put the Rhode Island collapse in the past. A loss here gives the season a chance to unravel.

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