By Palmer Johnson
Your George Mason Patriots are looking to get back into the win column with their road game against the 13-9 and 3-6 Davidson Wildcats.
The Wildcats are coached by Matt McKillop, son of Davidson coaching legend Bob McKillop. This is Matt’s second season, with him having a record of 28-25 overall and 11-16 in the conference.
Davidson has recently discovered that starting forward David Skogman will be out for the rest of the season. He injured his foot a couple games ago, but this is probably worst-case scenario for a big man. Luckily, I believe he has a COVID year if he wants it. I hope it doesn’t affect him next season.
The Wildcats are coming off a big road win against Duquesne, where they went on the road and beat them by 13. Hopefully they’re in for a big letdown after a big win.
Davidson By The Numbers
Davidson is the 118th ranked team in the country, ranking 156th in offense and 94th in defense. These metrics are odd for Davidson, as usually they have an incredible offense inside the top 50, and then an ok defense around 100 spots behind the offense.
The Wildcats’ average height is pretty high 6’6.7, which is 10th in the country and first in the A10. They have more of a well-rounded height, since there aren’t many super big or super small guys, just a bunch of 6’7 ones.
McKillop has them playing at a pretty slow pace, 65.6 possessions per game, which is 286th in the country.
In the past, Davidson’s calling card was efficient three-point shooting, but since the younger McKillop has taken over, they’ve struggled from deep, shooting only 31.9% last season. This season, the struggle has remained, as they’re shooting .1% lower.
Davidson historically likes to run a 5-out motion offense, but with the injury to Skogman, this might be a problem, as now they have nobody who can play the 5 that shoots over 50% from three, with 6’11 Reed Bailey shooting 20.6% from three, 7-34, and 6’10 Sean Logan is shooting 4-14 from three this year. There’s a decent chance Mason will be able to completely ignore them on the perimeter.
That big red blob straight-on from three was pretty much David Skogman. It is kind of worrying that they’re good from the corners, as Mason has recently struggled with that when they go into the 1-3-1 zone.
As you might expect, Davidson takes a lot of threes, with 41.7% of their shots coming from behind the arc, 70th in the country. The problem with that is only 32% of their points come from out there, 131st in the country. The rate at which they take threes is not normal for how often they go in, as they average just .954 points per shot from deep. That is probably why their offensive efficiency has been so low this year.
The Wildcats struggle with offensive rebounding, only grabbing 26.6% of opportunities, 269th in the country, which makes sense since they play a lot of 5-out, even with the size advantage.
Davidson doesn’t turn it over often, only 16%, but when they do, it is most likely a steal, with them having a 10.5% offensive steal rate, second worst in the conference.
With Skogman out, now Davidson doesn’t really have any shooters. Their two best guys now are freshman Bobby (Buckets) Durkin at 35.7% and Connor Kochera at 34.2%. Those are nice pieces to have, but they can’t be your best shooters.
Grant Huffman, a senior PG, is now one of their two best offensive players, averaging 14.1 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 5 assists. He’s very good at pretty much everything except perimeter shooting, as he only hits 29.2% of his threes.
The other offensive guy they have is Connor Kochera, a sophomore wing
On the other end, teams are shooting a ton of threes, 43.2%, top 20 most, against Davidson, and hitting them at a slightly below-average rate of 33.1%. Opponents are getting 35.8% of their points from out there, which is 29th most.
The Wildcats don’t foul often, which makes sense since opponents shoot so many threes, but when they do, opponents are only shooting 66.6% from the line, 13th in the country. I imagine this means that they would much rather take the foul than give up a good shot inside, especially if it’s a big man who struggles from the line.
Since conference play started, the Wildcats are the best defensive rebounding team, only giving up 24.5% of chances.
That’s pretty good three-point defense, especially from straight-on. They don’t really have any big weaknesses, except teams hit the mid-range at a decent rate it seems. I don’t like the mid-range shot, but if they’re giving it up and Hall and Maddox are hitting them super well, I’m ok with it.
Davidson Scouting Report (First Half vs. Duquesne)
Davidson’s offense, as the name “Motion” suggests, has a lot of off-ball movement. Most of the time, the four guys without the ball will all be doing something, whether it’s running around, setting a screen, or being a decoy.
The first look on a lot of possessions is the rim-running center. If the center is behind the play, then the point-guard will go straight with the center trailing, hoping the opposing center will come inside as well, and then pass it back to the center.
The Wildcats will try to turn a lot of rebounds into fast breaks, hoping someone will lose their man in transition for an open three, but if something great isn’t there, they’ll slow it down a ton. One of the commentators said something that felt very true, they either score in the first or last ten seconds of the shot clock, almost nothing in the middle.
There are a ton of off-ball screens. If the defense falls asleep for half a second, it’s over. Someone is getting an open shot.
The scariest part about Davidson is that if they pass it around long enough, eventually someone gets separation and an okay three, you just have to hope the shot isn’t falling that game.
The reason the Wildcats’ offense has such a high turnover rate but a low non-steal TO rate is because they make a lot of passes to guys right under the rim, where the pass has a decent chance to get deflected, but if it reaches its destination, it’s a bucket.
Speaking of shots at the rim, Davidson will absolutely pass up okay looks at the rim for open threes.
Reed Bailey, at 6’11, is listed as a guard in some places. After watching him, I can see why. He handles the ball so well for a guy that big, with the skill of a 6’7 wing. Unfortunately for Davidson, it seems he plays like a 6’7 wing on defense too, not really using his size like you’d expect.
Achile Spadone might have the most beautiful jump shot I’ve ever seen, it also didn’t hurt that it went in.
6’4 190lbs Grant Huffman destroyed 5’9 Kareem Rozier in the post. While Polite is five inches taller and listed as 25 pounds heavier than Rozier, I think there’s a chance Huffman will try it if he gets the opportunity.
Davidson played what seemed like pretty normal man defense, with not too many switches. If they went into a soft zone for a possession or too, I didn’t notice.
I kept having to check KenPom to see what players’ numbers were since there’s so many 6’7 wings with brown hair, and they don’t have their names on their jerseys. The reason this is important is because it seemed like Davidson was willing to switch when they needed to, but tried their absolute best not to. There’s a chance that wings were switching throughout the game and I didn’t notice until a center and guard went out of their way to stay on their man.
The big man will occasionally double the ball-handler on the pick and roll, but then rush back to his man if he doesn’t set up a good trap instantly.
Davidson played pretty good defense on the perimeter, but a lot of those possessions were Dae Dae Grant taking a long contested two while fading away, so Duquesne wasn’t making it too hard on them.
David Dixon was giving Davidson’s bigs trouble. It felt like he was getting himself an and-one on every other possession. After the and-ones, they hammered him. This makes sense since he’s a 64.9% free throw shooter. I don’t think they would do this to Amari Kelly since he’s been pretty good from the line this year, but they would think about it against Malik Henry.
Whoever Hunter Adam is guarding is going to have to stay awake, he pokes and pokes and pokes at the ball, but doesn’t foul.
All of the Wildcats dive after loose balls, it wasn’t uncommon to see two guys dive after the same one.
At the end of the first half, 11 players had checked in for Davidson. That’s a lot.
What Does This Mean for Mason?
I think Amari Kelly will get a clean 20 and 10, hopefully they start hacking him early and get some dudes in foul trouble.
If Mason can get the paint open, this could be a field day for Baraka Okojie. He’s too bursty for most of these guys.
Prediction: Mason wins 71-66. I don’t think Davidson will be able to take advantage of Mason’s subpar three-point defense. They have too many guys who don’t shoot well. The style of play doesn’t really match the personnel as much as you would like.
I know they’re in a losing streak, but I am still excited to watch them, and you should be as well. End it at three.
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