Your 23-9 and 11-7 George Mason Patriots are hosting the 25-7 and 17-3 Liberty Flames in the first round of the NIT. The winner of this game will take on the winner of Murray State vs. Nevada. If Mason and Nevada win, the Patriots would head out to Reno. If Mason and Murray State win, then Murray State would travel to Fairfax.
The Flames are coached by Ritchie McKay (I am going to assume there is no relation to the Mason McKay family), who was the head guy at Portland State before they were D1, Colorado State, Oregon State, New Mexico, and then Liberty twice. He took over for 2007-08 and left after the 2008-09 season, which was Seth Curry’s freshman season before he transferred. McKay may have sensed what was coming and went to be UVA’s top assistant from the 2009-10 season to 2014-15, and has been running the show at Liberty since.
He has an overall record of 438-270, being 297-141 at Liberty, and 258-113 during his current stint. In three years in the CUSA, they have a 37-17 record.
I have checked Twitter, and have not seen any Liberty Flames enter the portal yet, so I will assume they are full strength.
Liberty By The Numbers
The Liberty Flames are the 125th ranked team on KenPom, with the 58th offense and 268th defense. I like to think of this team like a Saint Louis offensively, but with insanely bad defense. Stylistically, they are built more like Richmond, as you will see later.
If you filter Torvik for just the past month, Liberty is the 228th ranked team, with the 76th offense and 341st defense. Fine offense. You cannot be bottom 25 in defense.
McKay has his guys playing very slow, with the 339th fastest tempo in the country, coming on both ends, having the 295th fastest offense and 340th defense.
Liberty is bottom five in bench minutes and third in D1 experience, which is still a bit underselling since senior JJ Harper is in his first year of D1. They have the 16th highest minute continuity at 52.6%. And lastly, the big one, the Flames have the second lowest average height in the country at 6’3.2. Nobody is 6’10 and their leading minute-getter at the three is 6’3.
Offense
The offense is the good side, by a lot. The Flames have the second highest eFG%, along with the 18th lowest turnover rate. That is great. The reason they aren’t over the top elite is their 19.1% offensive rebound rate, which is last, and free throw rate of 31.3 FTAs per 100 shots, 274th.
So when Liberty takes shots, they will be sick, but will also almost certainly lose the shot amount battle.
That amazing eFG% of 59.8 comes from 39.2% from three, sixth, and 60.8% from two, fifth. Look familiar? As you may guess with such a high-efficiency team, their average two-point distance is 4.8 feet, 20th, 1.2 feet below the D1 average of 6.
Liberty takes 48.6% of their shots from behind the arc, which is 23rd highest, and have 61.4% of their shots assisted, 22nd. They get 40.3% of their points from deep, 14th highest.
They look unstoppable on the year and in February, but in March, that is a pretty normal looking shot chart. It is still very good, but not reaching the heights of what they were doing earlier in the season.
Similarly to Saint Louis, Liberty has a lot of guys who score a lot. Brett Decker, Kaden Metheny, Zach Cleveland, Colin Porter, and JJ Harper are all in double digits.
Decker, a 6’3 wing, is their number one option, averaging 16.8 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 1.1 assists on 66.1% true shooting. When he gets the ball, a shot is going up, with a 5.6% assist rate and 6.9% turnover rate. Bring your own ball. Brett makes 46.9% of his threes on 13.1 threes per 100 possessions, which is very high normally, but not on this team, where he is third in that department, with a fourth guy at 13%.
5’11 guard Kaden Metheny is a little more well-rounded, averaging 13.4 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 3.1 assists on 62.2% true shooting. That comes from 41.2% from three on 13.7 attempts per 100 possessions, and 60.5% from two. Along with that scoring, Metheny brings some secondary playmaking, with a 16.5% assist rate compared to a 12.4% turnover rate.
Well who is getting the assists then? 6’7 forward Zach Cleveland has a 36.6% assist rate, 24th in the country, although he also has a 23.8% turnover rate. Something is happening when this guy touches the ball. Cleveland averages 11.8 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 6.8 assists per game, which leads the CUSA, on 59.8% true shooting. That comes from 62.3% from two, 50.9% from the line, and being 0-4 on threes on the season.
I will say. If you are 5’11, you are listed at 6’0. This is a little guy. I brought this up on Onward To Victory, but Liberty plays two sub six-foot guys on the court a lot of the time, so it is very unlikely the size doesn’t shift the game one way or another. Either Mason will be too big for them to handle, or Liberty will be running circles around Mincy and Jahari Long.
6’5 wing JJ Harper seems to be a monster cutter, making 73.9% of his shots at the rim, with 71.8% of them being assisted. Nobody else on the team has this volume or efficiency of assisted twos. Along with that, Harper makes 36.4% of his threes, so while he isn’t a sniper, you still very much have to respect him out there.
Colin Porter has made 35.1% of his threes, 56.8% of his twos, and 92.1% of his free throws, so he is very much a threat.
Josh Smith is the only guy on the team who really crashes the offensive glass, with a team-high 12.5% offensive rebound rate. Among guys in the rotation, next is JJ Harper at 4.9%. I assume this is more of a stylistic thing like Richmond, where the center plays a lot on the perimeter, and everyone is instructed to get back on defense in most situations.
Defense
This is the bad end. Opponents have an eFG% of 53.1, 271st, and get 32.6% of offensive rebounds, 288th. On the bright side, they force some turnovers, at 17.2%, 136th. Their calling card is their low free throw rate of 26.2, 15th lowest, although with how the defense is getting shredded, maybe you would want to slide the foul slider up a little bit.
That eFG% comes from 38.3% from deep, sixth worst in the country, and 50.5% from two, 117th. Opponents take 37.1% of their shots from behind the arc, with 108th lowest, as average is 39.5%. Only 46.1% of made shots are assisted, 34th lowest, which is generally an indicator of being more 1 on 1 on defense without too much help.
They are getting absolutely shredded from three. That is absurd. The rim is not good enough for all of that to be going on outside the arc, especially later in the season.
With Zach Cleveland on and Josh Smith and Ryan Jones off, meaning Cleveland is playing the 5, opponents shoot 56.3% at the rim with a 52% eFG overall, per CBBShotCharts. With Smith on, opponents shoot 57.2% at the rim, with an eFG of 53.4%.
With Cleveland out, opponents shoot 66.2% at the rim, with a 62.9% eFG. The offensive numbers have a similar swing. He is probably their most important player by a decent margin. Cleveland also has a 22.5% defensive rebound rate compared to Smith’s 17.8%. That doesn’t mean that Liberty gets 4.7% more boards when he is on the court, but it really does not help Smith’s case.
I would also like to point out that the three-point defense is better with Cleveland in by himself than Josh Smith. Rough.
The size seems like it would be an issue with Metheny and Porter in, but opponents only have a 54.1% eFG% with them both in. There could be a confounding variable there, like they are always in with better 3-5 defenders, but it seems like those two combined are less of defensive liabilities than Josh Smith, their backup center.
Zach Cleveland, Josh Smith, Colin Porter, JJ Harper, Zander Yates, and Zander Carter are all decent defensive playmakers. For block and steal rate, Cleveland is at 4.2% and 2.4%, Smith 3.9% and 1.3%, Porter 0.3% and 2.6%, JJ Harper 3.9% and 2.5%, Yates 0.9% and 2.1%, and Carter 0.3% and 3.1%.
Ryan Jones has a 3.6% block rate, which is fine in a vacuum, but not when you have a 9.5 per 40 foul rate.
Josh Smith and Zander Yates have some foul problems at 6.6 and 6.2 fouls committed per 40, but most players are in the safe zone here.
On Torvik, Brett Decker is a minus 3.4 DPBM, so I looked at the on/off numbers. Opponents have an eFG of 52.9% when on the court, and 56.4% when he is off, so the answer isn’t too obvious. There is a decent chance he is always paired with a stronger defender, like Zach Cleveland, him being out would also be Zach Cleveland out, but that is looking too deep for this, since then that could put the whole Josh Smith is a defensive liability thing in jeopardy, although he is a minus 1.5 DPBM.
Liberty Scouting Report (First 10 Minutes vs. Missouri State)
Liberty got dominated by a 6’4 280 pound forward by the name of Michael Osei-Bonsu. 31 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists on 14-16 shooting. Not sure Mason has anyone of that body type.
Offense
Cleveland gets the ball on pretty much every possession. The point forward is surprisingly not great in the short roll because he gets happy feet. You are able to sag off of him on the perimeter if isolated and he will not even act like a shot will be taken. The offense is a lot of Cleveland getting the ball on the perimeter with tons of off-ball movement around him, like Richmond.
There are a decent amount of DHOs, which can turn into ghost handoffs are immediate rolls for Cleveland to get an open shot at the rim. Mason will have to watch for that. The off-ball movers will sense when the big man is driving and get out of the paint to open it up.
The double big lineup of Smith and Cleveland was a lot better at offensive rebounding, as one might expect.
Liberty uses the corners a lot, with there being some vertical off-ball screens for a guy in the corner, or cross court passes there. The little guards will drive and kick a decent bit, which generally opened up those corner shots.
There were a lot of anticipation passes, and that is cool and all when they are on the same page, but when they aren’t, it looks really bad.
Metheny has NBA range.
Defense
This is a very man defense, and they switch a little less than you would probably want. Even if a guy gets destroyed by a screen, they will try not to switch. Liberty hedges their ball screens but sometimes stay and double a little longer than expected if there is a non-shooter.
The Flames started one-on-one with Missouri State’s beast big man, but started doubling after he scored 10 of their first 13. Liberty was not able to hide the open man. Allenspach will need to be able to sense when the double is coming and find the open man, something that has been somewhat of a weakness for him this season. Let’s see some in-season progression.
What Does This Mean For Mason?
The NIT can mean a lot or a little depending on the person. Regardless of how you feel, you get to watch Mason play a little longer. I’m always game for that.
George Mason, 75, Liberty 65. Book it. Liberty has really been struggling, Mason has been somewhat hot lately.
I know the tournament ended poorly, but I want to keep watching this team since I believe there will be a decent amount of returning minutes next season. Who knows in this age?
