Skinn Looks To Get First Win Over Dukes

Your 20-2 and 8-1 George Mason Patriots, coming off a 14-point comeback victory against the St. Bonaventure Bonnies, are taking on the 12-10 and 4-5 Duquesne Dukes.

The Dukes are coached by Dru Joyce, who took over after Keith Dambrot retired following the Duquesne Round of 32 run. Joyce was the top assistant, and was the clear favorite when the retirement rumors were floating around in January that season. Dru is in his second year at the helm, with a record of 25-29 overall, and an A10 record of 12-15.

No players were listed on the injury report for Duquesne, but Maximus Edwards did not play in their game against Rhode Island. With his colorful background, I don’t know if that is a suspension from the team, or if he was just a DNP for gameplan reasons. Either is pretty plausible.

Brandon Hall has come out of nowhere to randomly start and play 20+ minutes per game over the last three, with him getting single digit minutes and DNPs before that. Previously, the last time he had played 10 minutes against a D1 team was in late November.

Duquesne By The Numbers

The Duquesne Dukes are the 122^nd ranked team on KenPom, with the 133^rd offense and 127^th defense. In A10 play, they have the 8^th and 7^th best offense and defense. Talk about balance. If you go to Torvik and filter by since A10 play started, Duquesne is the 107^th best team, 6^th in the A10, with the 130^th offense and 111^th defense.

These numbers are from conference play unless specified otherwise.

Joyce has his team playing fast, second in the conference at 68.9 possessions per game. They’re 4^th fastest on both offense and defense.

A lot of these players should sound familiar, as their minute continuity is 40.1%, 62^nd. They return David Dixon, Jakub Necas, Cam Crawford, former walk-on turned into a legit scholarship guy Jake DiMichele, Maximus Edwards, along with Alex Williams transferring last season and then having a medical redshirt. Edwards was at GW before Duquesne. Stef van Bussel hasn’t played in A10 play, but spent his freshman year at SLU, during Ford’s last season.

Offense

Duquesne’s overarching metrics aren’t very impressive, 8^th eFG%, 10^th turnover rate, 9^th offensive rebound rate, but 5^th free throw rate.

The Duke’s make 36.3% of threes, 4^th, and take the second most at 47.3% of their shots. What’s most impressive is how you can be so high in the free throw rate department while taking so many threes.

They have the 11^th best two-point percentage at 49.6%, and the worst block rate at 15.4%, so maybe Duquesne just kind of attacks the rim no matter what if they can’t get an open outside shot, and if there is a guy there, they still attack, and miss often, but get fouled.

The low midrange volume is pretty good, it does seem like they love the wing threes over the corners, on both higher volume and efficiency. 60% at the rim isn’t too good, which explains the two-point struggles. At least they’re getting shots at the rim, with their average two-point distance being 5 feet, fifth best in the conference.

I will probably go back to the other one since it does a good job of showing you both the relative volume and efficiency.

Jimmie Williams was their second option until A10 play, and really has taken over the scoring role. He takes 30% of shots, which is third, and increased his assist rate all the way up to 25.4%, 10^th best, and a very low 12.8% turnover rate. Williams averages 18 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 3.4 assists on 57.6% true shooting, very good for the volume. You will take the 37.5% from three for sure.

Tarence Guinyard was their number one scoring option before conference play, and was nails from outside. His points have increased, but Williams has a bunch more. Guinyard’s three pointer is down to 33.8%, which is a big step down from his 44.6% clip in the non-con. Tarence is averaging 16.6 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 5.9 assists on 56.9% true shooting, along with a 35.2% assist rate, second, compared to a low 15.5% turnover rate. The 6’2 PG is also randomly hitting only 62.5% of his free throws, so maybe that 33.8% is closer to his real shooting talents.

John Hugley was the number one option on an ACC team in Pittsburgh, albeit one that was almost sub-200, and it was all the way back in 2021-22. He’s found a more niche role in just being a post hub guy, but Hugley may still have some takeover ability. Unfortunately, the high ceiling has not been met, as he’s sitting at a 46.2% true shooting. Not good. 34.8% from two is bad. On the bright side, John is drawing 6.8 fouls per 40. This could be Christ Essandoko 2.0, with this one being a little more obvious. On the bright side, he brings in 9.1% of offensive rebound opportunities, which is pretty solid.

It is also worth noting that he was suspended for six games, with three of them being A10 games. I don’t know what was going on there. Conspiracy time, VCU’s Tyrell Ward was a healthy scratch for four games and came back the day after Hugley. There’s a chance they are related.

Duquesne has a couple of other plus shooters, albeit some on lower volumes, Alex Williams at 40% on 30, Maximus Edwards at 40% on 20, and Jakub Necas at 53.8% on 13, so probably not real, although still a threat.

Cam Crawford is only shooting 28.6% from three in conference play, and only a bit better on the season, but was the A10 leader in 3PT% at 46.5% last year. It’s kind of crazy because overall, that elite year looks like an outlier, not this sub 30% one.

David Dixon is what you expect on this end, grabbing a lot of offensive boards, 9.8%, and getting fouled a lot for the amount of shots he takes, with a FT rate of 61.4, fifth. The four-year Duke makes 77.8% of his free throws, a major step up from past seasons.

Defense

The defense is pretty good outside of fouling. 5^th best eFG%, 8^th turnover rate, 2^nd best rebounding rate, but 13^th best free throw rate.

That eFG% comes from the 4^th lowest three-point percentage at 33%, and teams taking 42.8% of their shots from back there, fifth most. Opponents do make 52.8% of their shots, which is high for how good their rim defense is.

A sneaky stat is that the Dukes get 2/3 of their turnovers as steals, which is a higher fraction than most. Steals are more valuable since they generally lead to fast break/less organized defensively possessions.

That rim defense is really good. 60% on offense was bad, so 56% on defense is awesome. The short midrange being held to 38.9% is really impressive. Somehow, that is a horrible shot for a lot of teams, though it kind of makes sense, since you get the downsides of a jump shot and also are somewhat close to a rim protector. There’s a reason you aren’t a little bit closer to the rim. The right baseline seems to be pretty well guarded at all distances.

The Dukes do a decent job at rim deterrence, with their average two-point distance at 5.4, 8^th in the A10.

David Dixon leads the conference in block rate at 11.5%, and only commits 5.1 fouls per 40. That is a lot, but is down from the 5.9 he had last year. Also, high-volume shot blockers will usually have that high enough that you have to play them 15 minutes a game, not 25 like in Dixon’s case. On top of that, he has a 2.2% steal rate, and the 6^th best (among qualified) defensive rebound rate 20.7%.

Outside of that, the Dukes have a lot of solid defensive playmakers, with Tarence Guinyard, Jimmie Williams, and Brandon Hall having steal rates of 2.5%, 3%, and 2.6%. Jakub Necas has a block rate of 2%.

Hugley commits 7.2 fouls per 40, which is crazy for a guy with zero blocks in A10 play, but does scoop up 23.5% of board opportunities. Nobody else is really in the foul danger zone.

Duquesne Scouting Report (First 10 Min. of Second Half vs. St. Bonaventure)

The first half was used for the St. Bonaventure section.

Offense

Duquesne likes to push it in transition. The offense is pretty contingent on Guinyard drive and kicking, which is his best skill. He’s awesome at the short drive kickout to a shooter. Truly an open three machine. If you can’t stay in front of him, you must pray. Tarence is also a very good off-ball mover.

Speaking of off-ball movement, they get a lot of open threes off of it. The defense needs to be attentive.

Brandon Hall can drive, will attack closeouts.

Jimmie Williams is also a good drive and kicker.

I saw a lot of double screens with Dixon and Necas, along with double post sets.

Hugley has pretty bad spacing instincts, he would watch a guard blow past his man and drift into his lane.

Defense

It seemed like a matchup zone, with them trying not to switch their small guards. The principles changed enough that I can’t be confident in what Mason will see.

The Dukes would double the post a decent bit, usually delayed. Allenspach will have to watch out for that.

Players will gamble super hard for steals sometimes and turn it into a 4 on 5.

Necas is very switchable.

What Does This Mean For Mason?

This has been Mason’s worst matchup in recent years. The Patriots haven’t beat Duquesne since 2017. I don’t believe in the generational curses with teams when both sides have rotated staffs, but this one makes a little more sense since Joyce was a Dambrot assistant.

With that being said, Mason wins 75-70. Book it.