Your 27-8 George Mason Patriots are taking on the also 27-8 Bradley Braves of the Missouri Valley Conference, Loyola Chicago’s old conference, in the second round of the NIT.
The Braves are coached by Brian Wardle, who previously coached at Green Bay of the Horizon League. Wardle has been at Bradley since the 2015-16 season, with a 185-146 record at Bradley, and a 280-211 record overall, and took his Braves to the tournament twice, if you count the COVID year that got canceled, where they had already won their conference tournament.
Both Zek Montgomery, who played two years at Bradley, a year at Rhode Island, and then another year at Rhode Island, and Darius Hannah were sitting out of the NIT, but Hannah has decided to play.
Freshman forward Timoty van der Knaap was out of the rotation, but started and played 20 minutes against North Alabama.
Montgomery was their starting wing, playing 72% of minutes, and taking 24.9% of shots, so that is one player you do not have to scout for, most likely.
Bradley’s biggest win of the season was going on the road and taking out 51st ranked Drake, who beat Missouri in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
In the first round of the NIT, the Braves beat 110th ranked North Alabama 71-62 at home.
Bradley By The Numbers
Bradley is the 92nd ranked team on KenPom, with the 92nd offense and 109th defense.
Wardle has his guys playing pretty slow, at 65.8 possessions per game, which is 269th, but that seems to come on the defensive end, with opponent possessions lasting an average of 18.6 seconds, 347th fastest.
Offense
Bradley makes their money with their efficient shooting, with an eFG% of 56.5%, which is 12th, along with 39.6% from three, which is third. That is a very high number. Their 54.3% from two, 62nd, doesn’t hurt either.
They shoot it a decent bit from three, 42% of shots, which is 105th, so high but not extreme.
The Braves struggle with offensive rebounding, having only a 26.2% ORB rate, which is 284th.
Chart from CBBAnalytics
The paint is still red, but they have been cold from three in their four March games. Their shot chart on the season is nuts, especially from three.
5’8 Duke Deen will likely be Bradley’s top option, as he was their 1A to Zek Montgomery’s, who is sitting out, 1B. Deen takes 25.3% of shots, has a 56.2% true shooting, and an assist rate of 22.3%. He takes a ton of threes, making 38.5% of his 257 attempts.
Freshman 5’11 PG JaQuan Johnson has a 55.9% true shooting, and a 24.9% assist rate, along with drawing 5.6 fouls per 40 minutes. He is shooting 36.6% from three on his 41 attempts.
The Braves have a ton of shooters. Disregarding the guys mentioned, Almar Atlason is shooting 38.5% on 109 attempts, Christian Davis 44.9% on 98, Darius Hannah 35.6% on 59, Connor Dillon 45.7% on 35, and Corey Thomas 34.3% on 35.
Davis has crazy efficiency, with a 66.3% true shooting, 21st in the country, making 58.8% of his twos and the aforementioned three eliteness.
Defense
Bradley is also good at the eFG% on this end, giving up 47.1%, which is 41st. They also get a lot of rebounds, only letting up 28.2%, which is 97th. The Braves struggle with forcing turnovers, only 15.8% of the time, and send opponents to the line a lot, with 35.6 free throws per 100 shots, 248th.
Teams are making 32.3% of threes, and 47% from twos, which is 90th and 40th, and are taking 42.6% of their shots from beyond the arc, which is top 60 most.
Charts from CBBAnalytics
The rim defense is pretty good, and has been good all season.
The Braves have some playmakers, with Darius Hannah having a 3.8% and 2.1% block and steal rate, Christian Davis 3.3% and 1.7%, Jaquan Johnson with a 5.3% steal rate, sixth nationally, and Ahmet Jonovic, Corey Thomas, and Almar Atlason having 5.4%, 5.2%, and 3.2% block rates.
Jonovic, Atlason, and Thomas foul a decent bit, at 5.5, 5.3, and 6 fouls per 40 minutes. At 7’1, 6’8, and 6’10, that kind of makes sense.
Bradley Scouting Report (First Half vs. North Alabama)
Bradley ran some big subs, where 3-5 players are swapping.
Offense
Think of this offense similarly to a toned-down Davidson, and a lot less Princeton-y with the bigs. There is a lot of off-ball movement to get shooters open. They will use the ball-handler as the screener a decent bit.
The Braves will run in transition but mostly pull back unless there is a good opportunity, it doesn’t line up with the tempo numbers as much as I thought. The guards may pull from three.
Bradley chooses to run in defensive transition rather than crashing the offensive glass.
Mason needs to watch for pick-and-pops and cannot go under screens.
Jonovic can be dominant in the post with a non-big on him.
Deen is shifty, but of course he is, he is 5’8.
Defense
It seems like they play man and try not to switch. They are reliant on lowering shot quality, rather than gambling for turnovers.
The big man comes out to the perimeter pretty far on screens.
The wings will help pretty far.
Pick-and-roll defense can struggle with the in-between game, but that is better than struggling on the perimeter or at the rim.
Jonovic seems like a pretty solid 1 on 1 defender.
Deen is a little guy, someone could post hm up.
What Does This Mean For Mason?
I predict that Mason wins 75-70, since the offense played pretty well against Samford, albeit a weak defense, and the defense struggles with the shooting a bit more than you would like. I think this will be a much tougher game than the first round of the NIT.
A win would send Mason to the quarterfinals, which would be the winner of Dayton and Chattanooga. I think if Dayton wins, the game is in UD Arena, but would hosted by the winner of this game with the Chattanooga victory.
