Your George Mason Patriots fought their hearts out in the A10 finals against VCU. They did not beat themselves, and did not crumble under VCU’s pressure. Do not let this game ruin a great season.
Zach Anderson had his best game a long time in terms of a combination of scoring, rebounding, and defense, and had a good look to tie it up. You can’t get mad at him for not going 3-4 from three. Thank you, Zach.
The 26-8 A10 Runner-Ups George Mason Patriots are taking on the 22-10 Samford Bulldogs out of the SoCon. The Bulldogs tied for third in their conference with a 12-6 record.
Samford is coached by Bucky McMillan, who has been there since the 2020-21 season. McMillan has a 99-51 overall record, and a 44-29 record in conference play.
Bucky was born in Birmingham, went to high school in Mountain Brook High School, in a Birmingham suburb, played D3 basketball at Birmingham-Southern, coached at his high school alma-mater from 2006-2020, and is now at Samford, which is, as you may guess, in Birmingham.
While their coach has been there, the Bulldogs won the regular season title twice, and made the tournament last season as a 13-seed, finishing 81st on KenPom.
As of March 17th at 2:30pm, none of Samford’s players have publicly entered the portal.
Samford has a player whose name will be familiar to those who closely follow recruiting. Hamed (formerly known as Larry) Olayinka, a 6’9 forward playing center. Olayinka had a visit with Mason in Skinn’s first offseason, and last offseason, Steve Curran visited him. For comedic purposes, I hope I see Mason on a list of teams contacting him.
If Curran gets a head coaching job, I hope Olayinka is still eligible so he can get his guy.
Samford By The Numbers
Samford is the 116th ranked team on KenPom, with the 77th offense, and 206th defense.
McMillan has his guys running and gunning, with the 25th fastest tempo in the country at 70.9 per game, with it coming more on the offensive end, as the average possession length on that end is 15.7 seconds, 18th fastest. Defense is a very average 17.6 seconds, 177th.
It seems like they do play worse if the pace is slowed down, but it is not an auto-loss.
Samford is not going to be a gimme game. It will be four months ago exactly, but this team went and played a great game at Michigan State, who is a two-seed in the tournament, and only lost by eight.
Offense
This team plays how you imagine the early Erik Reynolds Saint Joseph’s teams played, screaming up and down the court and chucking up threes.
When you look at their metrics, they make a lot of sense. For starters, the Bulldogs take 46.7% of their shots from behind the arc, which is 34th most. 39.7% of their points come from there, which is 17th. As you would hope, they are actually making a lot of them, at 36.9%, which is 38th.
The three opens up the two, as Samford hits 54% of their shots inside the arc, which is 70th. Together, that gives them an eFG% of 54.6%, 44th in the nation. Along with that, the Bulldogs grab 34.6% of offensive rebound opportunities, also 44th.
How are the Samford Bulldogs good, but not an elite offense? They turn it over a lot, and do not get to the line often, being ranked 259th and 293rd in those.
A lot of these turnovers seem to be forced, as Samford has the 74th lowest non-steal turnover rate at 6.6%, but a bottom 20 offensive steal rate, which is really bad, since you can turn steals into fast breaks.
Chart from CBBAnalytics
The first chart is the entire season, and the second and third are February and March, to get a more inclusive view.
As you can see, the left and right wing are red hot from three, and you still cannot leave the corners open. The rim is a mixed bag, with them doing fine overall on the season, struggling in February, and getting back on track somewhat in their two March games.
6’9 big Jaden Brownell, 33, is taking a ton of shots, at 32.5% of them when he is on the floor, which is 31st in the country. Brownell is doing very well in his 20-ish minutes per game, with a true shooting of 60.2%. The UIC transfer has made 36.4% of his 129 threes, and 60.1% of his 173 twos, along with making 80% of his 65 free throws.
6’4 wing Trey Fort, 3, is not too far behind him at 29.7% of shots in more minutes, with a true shooting of 58.9%. He’s making 38.9% of his 193 threes, and 54.9% of his 153 twos.
6’11 big Riley Allenspach, 35, is the backup center, but has decent volume and is efficient when in the game, taking 24.2% of the shots, with a true shooting of 62.8%. This comes from making 55% of his 20 three, and 58% of his 131 twos. He also has a 12.2% offensive rebound rate.
Speaking of offensive rebound rate, 6’9 forward, 11, Hamed Olayinka’s is 13.9%, which is very high. He also makes 63.5% of his twos.
6’0 guard Rylan Jones, 21, is the point guard, with an assist rate of 29.8%, along with a turnover rate of 23.1%. Jones doesn’t have incredible volume, but has a true shooting of 61.4%, making 41.1% of his 175 threes and 54.4% of his 79 twos. SOMETHING is happening when he touches the ball.
With the rest, regarding shooting, 6’1 guard Julian Brown, 13, is making 35.4% of his 96 threes. 6’6 wing Collin Holloway, 5, 32.1% of his 78. 6’5 wing Lukas Walls, 2, 38.9% of his 72. 6’2 guard Josh Holloway, 1, 30.5% of his 59.
I do not believe the Holloways are related, as they do not look similar, and have different hometowns listed. Nothing is mentioned on their biography pages.
Defense
The defense is a lot less interesting than the offense. Samford is pretty bad at everything except forcing turnovers, which they are elite at, at 21.8%, 15th highest.
The Bulldogs give up an eFG% of 53.2%, 290th, give up 33.5% of offensive rebound opportunities, 329th, and foul a lot, at 41.8 free throws per 100 shots, which is 346th (the last one will make sense later).
The turnovers come from getting a lot of steals, at 13.4%, ninth highest, while also having teams have non-steal turnovers at a pretty good rate as well at 8.4%, which is 77th.
The eFG% comes from giving up 35% from outside the arc, 252nd, and 53.8% from inside the arc, 294th. Teams take a lot of threes against the Bulldogs, at 43.8% of attempts, 320th lowest.
Chart from CBBAnalytics
On the season, they are definitely not winning the paint battle, as the rim is kind of blue, but a lot of that is very red. The right corner seems to be a major problem, with the right wing not being defended too well either. Defense was not played whatsoever in their two March games.
Hamed Olayinka fouls a ton. However much you think is a ton, it is more. The two-time Mason portal target commits 10 (ten!!!) fouls per 40 minutes. That means on average, the Juco product fouls out every 20 minutes. This is absurd. Just to name a couple games, Hamed got 4 fouls in 6 minutes in the UNC Greensboro game that I will use later, and fouled out in 7 minutes against The Citadel. Olayinka has not played 20 minutes in a game this season.
At least his fouling isn’t empty, considering he has a 14.8% and 4.2% block and steal rate. It does make the blocks a decent amount less meaningful.
Olayinka is not alone in his fouling, with Jaden Brownell committing 4.3 per 40, Riley Allenspatch at 4.9, and Isaiah West at 4.7.
Collin Holloway is statistically their best defensive rebounder, getting 18.1% of them.
They have some defensive playmakers outside of Olayinka, with Jaden Brownell at a 5.5% block and 2.4% steal rate, Rylan Jones with a 3.2% steal rate, Collin Holloway at 2.4% and 1.6%, Josh Holloway at a 3.3% steal rate, Allenspatch with a 2.5% block rate, Lukas Walls at a 3% steal rate, and Isaiah west with a 5.3% steal rate.
Samford Scouting Report (First Half vs. UNC Greensboro)
Yes, this is a UNC Greensboro team with Ronald Polite and Malik Henry. I wish they got into the tournament.
Offense
Samford will shoot the first semi-open three they see. There’s lots of drive-and-kicking, and they will run in transition when possible. The offense looks similar to VCU if they played Jack Clark at the 5. Most shots are at the rim or threes.
The Bulldogs will make risky passes if it could lead to a good shot.
Covering the popper in the pick-and-pop is extremely important if it is not Olayinka.
Samford went against a 3-2 zone for a possession and got bailed out by a bad foul.
Brownell will pull from three, you cannot forget about him on screens.
Both Collin and Josh Holloway will create their own shots. Josh can play in the post.
Olayinka is pretty limited on offense, but can finish plays.
Fort will pull threes in a defender’s face.
Defense
Samford might full-court man press the entire game. It will be tough to inbound, and they will often double-team the ball-handler. This is off both makes and rebounds, it never stops.
If you can beat the press, the chances of getting a foul or open shot at the rim is high. Ronald Polite did this a lot.
In the half-court, it was a mix of matchup zone and man.
Generally wings will collapse decently hard on the paint. The defense struggles when guards penetrate.
On screens, the Bulldogs will briefly double sometimes. If they do not double, they generally go under.
There were a lot of late closeouts and gambling for steals.
Samford is very aggressive, probably too much. They foul shooters too often, and pick up a decent amount in the press.
Teammates will occasionally knock rebounds out of their own team’s hands.
Defensive miscommunications, which were not rare, can leave guys lost.
Olayinka will foul pretty often if someone breaks the press and there is a breakaway.
What Does This Mean for Mason?
With a Mason victory, I believe they would host the next NIT game as well. That would be a lot of fun.
There is no inside knowledge with this take, Tony Skinn would likely have left instead of taking the NIT bid already.
My prediction for the score is a 70-65 victory for the Patriots. This is a bit higher than the usual Mason game, but the Patriots have not played a team built like this.
