Mason Looks to Get Back on Track Against Fordham

Your George Mason Patriots, at 21-6 and 12-2, are taking on the 11-16 and 3-11 Fordham Rams, who are in last place in the A10.

The Rams are coached by Keith Urgo, who was suspended for four games for a recruiting violation earlier in the season. The team went 2-2 without him. That means Urgo is 1-9 in the A10 in his third season. His overall record is 49-44, and his A10 record is 19-27. He is possibly on the hot seat.

Fordham had a pretty hyped freshman big man in Jaden Smith. He has not played in conference play, so I do not think that is going well.

Fordham By The Numbers

The Fordham Rams are the 227^th ranked team in the country on KenPom, with the 201^st offense and 244^th defense. In conference play, the Rams have the 8^th ranked offense and 15^th ranked defense. I would have honestly expected those two conference rankings to be flipped.

Urgo has his guys playing at a decently fast pace, 68.2 possessions per game, which is 4^th. That mostly comes from their defense, where they have the lowest average defensive possession length. Considering Fordham’s defense is last, I am going to guess that is based on defensive lapses, not aggressive play.

Offense

If you told me Fordham’s offense was ranked 8^th, I would think they were a very competent team, as offense has been awful in the past with this team.

The Rams’ numbers are kind of boring, but they are 12^th in eFG%, 11^th in turnover %, 5^th in offensive rebound rate, and 6^th in getting to the line. 31.8% of threes and 49.2% of twos go in the hoop, which is 12^th and 11^th.

Fordham is bad, but they are a somewhat well-rounded bad.

Chart from CBBAnalytics

They have gotten better at the rim, but it still is not good.

Jackie Johnson is the centerpiece of their offense, and is very polarizing. Considering they are in last, I think I know the “correct” pole to go to. He has a 36.1% shot percentage, which is first in the conference.

The former UNLV Runnin’ Rebel and Duquesne Duke (on that AWFUL team) has a True Shooting of 53%, an assist rate of 20.4%, and a turnover rate of 16.4%. That is a very high turnover rate for someone taking so many shots. He is kind of a neutral in terms of shooting, making 51.2% of his twos and 33.3% of his threes.

Outside of Johnson, there is not much on offense besides Japhet Medor. Medor has a 56.5% true shooting, 18^th, and has both a better assist and turnover rate, at 27%, 7^th, and 11.7%, 20^th lowest among qualified. He hits 36.8% of his threes, only 41.9% of his twos, but draws five fouls per 40, which is seventh highest, and has the second highest free throw rate (free throws per 100 shots) in the A10 at 54.5. Honestly, I do not know why he doesn’t get the ball more. Whatever you are doing is not working.

With the rest, they have some “shooters” in guys who have to be covered, but nobody you are pulling your hair over if they are left open. Romad Dean is shooting 26.5% on 49 attempts, Matt Zona 30.8% on 39, Josh Rivera 32.4% on 34, Jahmere Tripp 29.6% on 27, and Zach Ruley 26.1% on 23.

One thing a couple of Rams have going for them is drawing fouls, outside of guys already mentioned, Rivera draws 4.7 per 40, 12^th, Zona 4.2, 22^nd, and Tripp at 4.1, 23^rd.

Abdou Tsimbila is a pretty limited offensive player, with no threes, and a nearly 1:10 assist:turnover ratio, but is a very good offensive rebounder, at 12.1%, third in the conference.

Defense

As mentioned earlier, the defense has really struggled. It is kind of odd, but they are a boring type of bad. The Rams are not last in any category that is considered purely positive or negative. They are 12^th, 12^th, 12^th, and 13^th in eFG%, turnover rate, defensive rebound rate, and free throw rate.

Their best attributes are three-point defense, where Fordham is 8^th, and free throw percentage, where they are 5^th.

With the three-defense, opponents are taking the least amount of threes in the conference, at 31.8%.

Along with that, teams have the lowest assist percentage at 43.3%. I do not know what that means since they are so bad.

Chart from CBBAnalytics

The rim defense was fine earlier, but it got pretty rough during February. They’ve been ok from three but pretty bad defending twos.

Abdou Tsimbila blocks a decent amount of shots, at 6.6%, which is 9^th in the conference. Considering they are ranked 15^th, I am guessing this is not real (useful) block production.

Fordham has some other defensive playmakers, with Jackie Johnson having a 2.9% steal rate, Japhet Medor and Jahmere Tripp at 2.7%, Matt Zona with a 3.9% block rate and 1.8% steal rate, and Zach Riley with a 1% and 2.8% block and steal rate.

Matt Zona and Tsimbila foul a decent bit, averaging 5.5 and 5.6 fouls per 40. Japhet Medor is not too far behind, at 4.3.

Tsimbila and Romad Dean are pretty good defensive rebounders, with them being at 19.2% and 18.8%, 16^th and 17^th.

Fordham Scouting Report (First Half vs. Duquesne)

Offense

There were lots of miscommunications on where guys were supposed to be, which led to them chucking it out of bounds.

The Rams were definitely getting sped up by Duquesne’s man press, with the ballhandlers getting themselves out of control. Medor and Johnson will frequently get out of control but get bailed out by fouls.

The team overall struggles to find the open man when the ball is double-teamed. Their passing was weird, as they would throw home-run balls when inbounding, and in the half-court, someone would throw an absolute dart to someone six feet away to have it clank off his hands. Unforced turnovers are bad.

Jackie Johnson is a doozie. He will take deep threes, which could be a zone killer. They might have to cover him right as he crosses half-court because there is no regard for the shot clock. Johnson will sprint off a made basket to try and catch the defense sleeping and get a free basket. He also has a killer hesi. Jackie will get some free baskets in the game at the cost of ruining other possessions. He is A10 Jordan Poole.

Matt Zona is a fine floor spacer but does not offer much inside. The offense did look better when Zona was able to bring is man out to the perimeter and open up the paint.

Japhet Medor is pretty shifty and can take stepback threes.

Josh Rivera struggles to dribble in traffic, but in the open court, that man can move and get himself a basket.

Tsimbila is pretty limited in the post but is a theoretical lob threat and play finisher.

Defense

Fordham struggles with off-ball screens and overall movement on the perimeter. I do not know if this is a choice, but they fouled a lot in transition.

The defense looked pretty matchup-zoney, but went into a pure man at times. They ran a full-court zoney press and Duquesne did not care. There is a decent chance there was a miscommunication on what was being run since it looked like guys had no clue what area or what man they were supposed to cover.

Despite opponents attempting very few threes, the Rams went under some screens on guys for Duquesne who I know are itching to let it fly.

Tsimbila is a pretty good one-on-one defender, but is very jump-happy. He struggles on the perimeter, mostly because the ball-handler can get him in the air. That kind of explains why he gets so many blocks but their defense is so bad.

Matt Zona struggles in pick-and-roll defense. They were hitting him with pick-and-roll lob after lob, and if they did not lob, then he also did not cover the guard well. Zona can get too physical and get a dumb foul or two. He is also better on the perimeter than Tsimbila.

Medor will gamble for steals. He also is a decent post defender, along with Jahmere Tripp.

Jackie Johnson is an aggressive on-ball defender.

What Does This Mean for Mason?

This is probably the easiest conference game on Mason’s schedule, but I would not be surprised if Fordham beats the spread. The Rams have played Mason tough lately, no matter how good or bad they are. I do not believe in teams “owning” other teams across coaching regimes, luckily.

Last season ended with a heartbreaker from Kyle Rose in the Bronx, let’s hope that Jackie Johnson cannot replicate that in Fairfax.

There is a chance that Haynes has a little bit of trouble with Tsimbila, but their team defense is so bad that I do not think it will matter.

I predict a 70-55 Mason victory. The offense will probably have a bounce-back game against the last ranked defense, but it is worth noting that the Patriots have not performed too well against whoever is last ranked when they play them.