Your first place George Mason Patriots, at 21-5 and 12-1, on an 11-game winning streak, third longest in the country, are heading down 95 to Richmond to play the VCU Rams, also at 21-5, but 11-2, in the Siegel Center.
This is essentially the battle for first place, as the winner would have the tiebreaker. In VCU’s case, they would get it with the same record as Mason. In Mason’s case, they would have a two-game lead, plus the tiebreaker, so really 2.5.
The Rams are coached by Ryan Odom, who was the coach of the UMBC team that took down UVA before moving on to Utah State for two seasons. He has an overall record of 194-115, with a 45-19 record at VCU, and a 22-9 record in A10 play.
VCU By The Numbers
VCU is the 32nd ranked team overall, with the 54th offense and 23rd defense, per KenPom. In conference play, they have the first offense, and second defense. We are deep enough into A10 play to use stats from league play.
Odom has his guys playing at an average pace for the A10, at 66.6 possessions per game. The A10 is a slower conference.
The Rams also have two players on the KenPom All-A10 team in Max Shulga and Joe Bamisile, in the top two spots.
Their roster construction from far away looks similar to Mason. Pretty big, bench gets a lot of minutes, and tall. They also have the third highest minutes continuity in the A10 at 52.1%.
50% is significantly above average, what happened to the game I love? NCAA, please re-implement the one-transfer rule.
Offense
Their top offense is a product of being consistently good at pretty much everything. Second in eFG%, fourth in turnover percentage, and first in offensive rebounding percentage at 40.6% (?????, second is 35.7%). Their main weakness is being 14th in getting to the free throw line. That makes sense for a team that shoots so many threes.
So VCU doesn’t miss very often, but when they do, they get the offensive rebound the most. Man. I can see why the Rams have the top ranked offense.
The team out of Richmond is shooting 36.6% from three in conference play, which is first, as you might guess. Along with that, 45.2% of their shots are coming from deep, which is third most.
This will be the hardest stress test for Mason’s defense since the Duke game.
As you can see, they were great inside during December, got kind of cold during January, and got back hot inside during February. The three-point shooting was fine-ish during December and February, but if you look in the bottom left corner for February, they are shooting 42.9% on 119 attempts. I choose to believe that that cannot stand. If it does against Mason, uh oh.
Joe Bamisile is their go to guy, but his stats are oddly not as incredible as they seem on the surface. 30% of the shots, which is fourth, at a true shooting of 57.1%, very good. The problem is that he has a 19.9% turnover rate, which is pretty high if you are taking so many shots. You cannot turn it over if you chuck it up, so turnovers happen pretty often when he doesn’t shoot.
Of course, when Bamisile does shoot it, it goes pretty well. He shoots 35.7% from three on 70 attempts, and 57.8% from to on 83 attempts. Both are very good for the volume.
Max Shugla is the frontrunner for Player of the Year based on any rankings you look at, but has been kind of a disappointing scorer, shooting higher from three, 39.1%, than two, 38.7%. Shooting that well from three is very impressive, but you do not want to be able to get run off the line. Shulga has been playing pseudo-point guard for the Rams, with the highest assist rate at 23.9%, and only an 11% turnover rate.
The former Utah State Aggie is probably my pick for Player of the Year, as since nobody has really separated themselves, the default goes to the offensive juggernaut on the top tier team. It kind of has to be someone from VCU or Mason, and the Patriots’ workload is too spread out.
In regard to shooting, besides the guys we have already gone over, Phillip Russell is shooting 37.8% on 82 attempts, Zeb Jackson 29.4% on 51, seventh year senior Jack Clark 44% on 50, and Alphonzo (Fats) Billups 27.8% on 18. Billups is someone to watch for, as he shot 40.3% on 67 attempts last season.
It is also worth noting that defensive freshman guard Brandon Jennings is 6-10 from three, but that is too low of a sample to believe to be real.
Christian Fermin and Luke Bamgboye are 1st and 8th in offensive rebounding rate at 14.6% and 11.3%.
Defense
Their biggest problem is that teams are getting to the line pretty often, 12th. Of course, you will take being in a wee bit of foul trouble if it means you’re second in the conference in eFG%.
The Rams are 4th in three percentage and first in two-point percentage at 44.6%. They’re also second in turnover rate at 20.4%, being first in steal rate at 13.5%.
They really are dominating the rim at both ends. Their only soft area is that teams are shooting 36.1% from three in February, with the wings looking like the weak areas. Darius Maddox, Zach Anderson, please save us.
Freshman big Luke Bamgboye leads the conference in block rate, at 13.8%, while only committing 3.8 fouls per 40. For a freshman who blocks so many shots, 3.8 is absurdly low. Since they have the second ranked defense, we can assume this is real.
Outside if him, VCU still has a lot of defensive playmakers, with Bamisile having a 3.4% block rate and 2.7% steal rate, Zeb Jackson with a 3.2% steal rate, Terrance Hill with a 2.6% steal rate, Max Shulga with a 3.6% steal rate, Phillips Russell with a 3.3% steal rate, Fats Billups with a 2.6% steal rate, Jack Clark with a 1.8% block rate and 2.1% steal rate, Christian Fermin with an 8% block rate, Michael Belle with a 2.6% block rate and 1.4% steal rate, and Brandon Jennings with a 3% block rate and 2.8% steal rate.
For context, 2% is generally considered an active steal rate.
Christian Fermin’s defensive rebounding has been something I’ve been watching all year. Earlier in the season he had a 6% rebound rate, which was 3rd worst in the county for a guy 6’10 or taller. It has gotten a bit better, at 9.6% now, but I just have to imagine that he is more committing to blocking his man out than actually getting the board, because there is no way VCU would let this happen with their starting center.
VCU Scouting Report (First Half vs. UMass)
Offense
There is a lot of pushing the ball up the court. They RUN in transition.
The Rams are relentless on the boards, which explains why they struggle in defensive transition a bit. Giving up a fast break is worth about 1/3 of the points that an extra offensive rebound is, so I get going for it.
Jack Clark is a good post piece, and will take free-throw mid-ranges to beat zones.
Shulga will pull up from three early.
Bamisile is a good driver, but can get tunnel vision and jump into triple teams. I think the three-time transfer has predetermined that he is shooting once he gets the ball sometimes.
Defense
The Rams run what seems like a man-based defense, and try not to switch if they can. They struggle a bit in the fast break, along with giving up trailing threes from bigs.
VCU ran a lot of full-court press. You have to watch out inbounding the ball, as they will fake jog in transition and then turn around when they think he might be throwing it in.
The Rams double team the ball inside.
Jack Clark is a good inside and perimeter defender.
Their defense was relentless. It is going to be tough for Mason to score.
What Does This Mean for Mason?
Winning this game is incredibly important on two fronts. First, it would give Mason a two-game lead with four games left, plus the tiebreaker. Mason could go 2-2 and still be the one seed. Second, winning this game is the only way the Patriots could possibly be in the at-large conversation. A loss here would truly make it so that they have to win three games in three days in DC.
A matchup that people should keep their eyes on is KD Johnson vs Phillip Russell, as both are known to be hotheads, and when two of them go against each other, you have no clue what is going to happen. Multiple guards have been ejected when they went against Russell, I hope KD is not the next.
