Mason Crosses the Potomac For a GW Rematch

By
Palmer Johnson
-
95
1265
Photo Credit to @ByGeorgeGMU on Twitter/X

Your George Mason Patriots (first place!), at 17-5 and 8-1, are taking on the George Washington Revolutionaries, at 15-7 and 4-5, across the Potomac in the Charles Entertainment Smith Center in a rematch of the double-overtime thriller we had in mid-January.

In the first game, Mason won 80-77 after 50 minutes. Jared Billups got the KenPom MVP, with 8 points, 16 rebounds, and 3 steals. Haynes was pretty overwhelmed by the GW pressure, ending up with 5 turnovers. The Patriots held Christian Jones to 5-19 shooting, and Gerald Drumgoole to 0-10 from three, along with fouling Rafael Castro out.

I wrote a preview for the first game with a lot more information than this one will have, so go read that one first.

It seems like Caputo wants to run seven deep, as in their last game, seven guys had 20 or more minutes, and the only guy outside that subbed in for a guy who ended up with four fouls.

George Washington By The Numbers

George Washington is the 125th ranked team on KenPom, with the 171st offense and 119th defense.

Once again, since Mason has already played them, and we are halfway through conference play, I will be primarily using stats just from A10 play.

GW has the 11th ranked offense at 101.7 points per 100 possessions, and the 5th ranked defense at 100.4 per 100.

Caputo has his guys playing at a very average pace, 67 possessions per game, 8th in the A10. They played their slowest game of the season in their most recent against La Salle at 61 possessions. GW really struggles when they are not forcing turnovers, which speeds up the game and gives them “free” offense. When they have to work for it in the half-court, it gets rough.

Offense

The Revs struggle to put the ball in the hoop, with a 47.7% eFG, 12th, and turn it over a bit more than you’d like, 18.4%, 10th, but make up for it a bit with an offensive rebound rate of 32.8%, 4th, and getting to the line 5th most, at 34.2 free throws per 100 shots.

GW is dead last in three-point shooting in conference play, 29.8%, which is very…not good. On the bright side…well not for them…they take the 5th most threes in the conference at 42.9%.

The Revolutionaries have the highest assist percentage at 60.9%. That can either be interpreted as the offense having a lot of ball movement, or the offense lacking a self-creator. Based on GW’s second half vs. Mason, I would say it is more leaning toward the latter.

I don’t know what this means scheme-wise, but GW has the highest offensive block rate in the conference. That is certainly something, although I don’t know what.

It seems like the Revs don’t shoot themselves in the foot, having the 3rd lowest non-steal turnover rate, but do get careless with the ball, having the 2nd highest offensive steal rate. This is actually better for Mason, since live-ball turnovers can turn into offense better than non-steal, which are typically dead-ball (fouls, travels, throwing it out of bounds).

Chart credit to CBBAnalytics

As you can see, at the start of conference play, they got cold from outside. February is just their loss against La Salle. The offense is just not running how it normally does under Caputo, which is convenient since the defense just started playing well. You can tell GW hates midranges, which is good for efficiency.

Gerald Drumgoole had taken over the number one scoring option when Buchanan was out, and was doing a decent job, but went on a 2-35 from three stretch starting with their Rhody game and ending with Saint Louis. This is awesome for Mason, but it is a bit worrying that he has shot 5-11 and 4-11 in their last two games. Hopefully that trend does not continue against the Patriots. In conference play altogether, the sixth year senior is shooting 28% from deep, while still taking 29.7% of the shots, and with over 2/3 of his shots coming from behind the arc.

In A10 play, Trey Autry is shooting 39% on 41 attempts from three, Christian Jones 34.4% on 32, Jacoi Hutchinson 15% on 20, Sean Hansen 26.3% on 19, and Trey Moss 20% on 15.

Rafael Castro is leading the conference in eFG% at 70.5%, which is the exact same as his two-point percentage. He also leads in free throw rate, which makes sense, considering the Providence transfer is only shooting 51.7% from the line. Along with all that, he leads the conference in offensive rebound rate at 15.9%.

Christian Jones is second in the A10 in assist rate at 32.2%. He was somewhat of a shot-chucker against Mason, hopefully that happens again.

Defense

GW is above average at defensive eFG% at 47%, 5th, and forcing turnovers at an 18.2% rate, 4th.

Their major problem is defensive rebounding, with them having the worst offensive rebounding rate given up at 34.6%. This could be a massive benefit for Mason, as when they last played, it was up to 34.9%, and that was with Jalen Haynes fouling out.

Chart credit to CBBAnalytics

The interior defense has gotten better as the season has gone, especially if you consider that they have been playing significantly better teams in January than December.

Castro has the 8th highest block rate at 6.5%, while also having a respectable 1.9% steal rate. Christian Jones has a 1.7% block rate, but is 2nd in steal rate at 4.1%. Sean Hansen is more well-rounded in the defensive playmaking department, with a 4% block rate, 21st, and a 3.5% steal rate, 6th.

Nobody on the team is really a foul machine, with their leader being freshman guard Ty Bevins at 4.3 per 40. Castro is at 2.6 per 40, which is pretty insane for someone with such a high block rate.

George Washington Scouting Report (First 10 Minutes vs. Saint Louis)

Once again, I’ll be doing less since I have already done them, and will only put down new things I noticed.

Offense

Caputo ran a two-big lineup with Castro and Hansen that was kind of clunky offensively, but would probably work pretty well if Hansen was hitting threes.

Castro’s post game looks more extensive than I remembered.

Christian Jones will throw no-lookers.

Trey Autry is trying to get fouled on threes.

Hansen has an odd-looking, low angled post hook.

Defense

If the ball gets dribbled into the corner, GW is going to double.

Gibson Jimerson was getting lost with off-ball screens, maybe Maddox or Anderson can do something with that.

Casto struggles on the perimeter, but was doing a great job inside on Robbie Avila.

Drumgoole can get blown by, Buchanan can get beat backdoor, and Hansen lacks the lateral quickness to guard outside the paint.

What Does This Mean For Mason?

I think Mason wins this one a little more convincingly than they did before. With that being said, I am still worried, since crazy things happen in Foggy Bottom. Mason 65, GW 60. Defense will prevail.

Someone is going to have to step up and do something not already accounted for. You need Jared Billups to get double digit rebounds, or Zach Anderson to hit 3+ threes, something like that.

Mason is bussing students into the game. I’m glad they are playing the same game GW does every year at EBA.

Get the brooms ready.

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