Your first place George Mason Patriots, at 16-5 and 7-1, are taking on the 13-7 and 3-4 Davidson Wildcats for the second time this season.
I covered a lot of this stuff when Mason played them in the conference opener, so I would read that first, if you haven’t already.
The Wildcats are still missing Sean Logan, who is out for the season. That doesn’t change much for Mason fans, as he was out during the first matchup.
When these teams matched up in late December, a 69-57 Patriot victory, Bailey was most of their offense, but was a volume scorer, with 20 points on 20 possessions. Against Mason, that is fine, since most teams do not hit the 1 point per possession mark. The Wildcats only scored 9 points in the last ten minutes of that game. Haynes also got whatever he wanted, shooting 6-6 from two.
Davidson By The Numbers
Davidson is the 117th team on KenPom, with the 69th offense and 228th defense.
We’ll be using conference numbers since Mason has already played them, and we are far enough into A10 play to where they are somewhat real.
The Wildcats have the 4th ranked offense at 108.9 points per 100 possessions, and the 15th ranked defense at 111.5 per 100. Mason will be playing the last ranked defense in back-to-back games. Hopefully the offense plays better against this one than the last.
Offense
Davidson’s offense is running so well because they have the 2nd highest eFG at 54%, and the lowest turnover rate at 12.7%. The only things really holding them back are the low offensive rebound rate at 19.4%, 14th, and only drawing 26.8 free throws per 100 shots, 13th. The last two are somewhat stylistic choices more than anything.
The Wildcats are hitting 35.4% of their threes, 4th, and 54.6% of their twos, 2nd. “Only” 40.4% of their shots are coming from behind the arc, which is 9th.
In conference play, Reed Bailey is red hot from three, albeit on a low volume, 7-12, 58.3%. That is an odd percentage and volume combination. He is also drawing an astounding 7.1 fouls per 40, which is the highest in the A10. Bailey has the second highest shot percentage, a true shooting of 64.2%, and the 5th highest assist rate at 29.1%. Those are A10 Player of the Year type numbers. If they end up being a top four seed, which is unlikely, I think he gets it.
Bobby Durkin is the biggest outside threat, shooting 40.7% on his 54 attempts through conference play.
Connor Kochera has only taken 21 threes, and has only hit 23.8% of them. His role has certainly changed between last season and now.
Zach Laput, their D2 transfer, has been efficient from two, at 58.6%, and not good from three, 29.2%.
Robert Blums has been pretty much just a shooter in A10 play, shooting 6-17 from three, 35.3%, and only taking five twos.
Mike Loughnane has only shot 29.4% on 17 attempts in conference play, but that seems like a bad sample, as for the season, he is still shooting 41.7%.
This is their shot chart from January, so A10 play minus the Mason game. You can see Reed Bailey on the right side of the paint, and the left corner is very hot. I am seeing more midranges than I expected.
Defense
The Wildcats’ last ranked defense comes with the 14th eFG allowed at 55%, the 3rd lowest turnover rate forced at 14.2%, the 3rd worst three-defense at 35.8%, and the worst two-defense at 55.9%.
On the bright side, Davidson has the 2nd best opponent offensive rebound rate at 25%, and their opponents only shoot 25.3 free throws per 100 shots, 4th.
They have some defensive playmakers, but a lot of their guys have 0% in block rate, steal rate, or both.
Reed Bailey has a 3% block rate, and a 1% steal rate. Kochera has a 2.3% steal rate.
Freshman Manie Joses has a 2.8% block rate, and a 2.9% steal rate, who has recently been in the rotation. I do not know who this is, but it looks like he is the third option at the three. At 6’7, that is some decent size.
That is a little less than ideal in the paint, but you’re okay with it. The right wing is pretty open, along with the corners.
Davidson Scouting Report (First 10 Minutes vs. Saint Joseph’s)
This game didn’t have a score bug (scoreboard) at the bottom, but you could see the clock and physical scoreboard from most angles anyway.
Since I already did this once, I will only put new things I notice.
Offense
Denying Bailey the ball inside 15 feet from the basket is still a great strategy, but that is easier said than done. If he gets it at the free throw line, the chances of a basket are pretty low.
Davidson has some midranges built into the offense, it seems. They took a decent amount of one-dribble midranges.
Mile Loughnane played on-ball more often that I expected to see.
Defense
The Wildcats were going under screens against Joe’s, which is not a good idea.
The defense falls apart if Bailey gets out of the paint. That isn’t saying Reed is an elite defender, as he is late/absent from helping more often than you would like.
I did see Manie Jones come in, I’m not sure he’s 6’7, and he did not stand out on either end. If he stood out, it would not take him until January to get into the rotation. It looks like they do view him as more of a defender.
What Does This Mean For Mason?
This seems like a good game for Haynes to have himself a day. As long as Davidson doesn’t get hot from three, Mason should have this. The Patriots have done a much better job guarding off-ball shooters this season than last, so I trust that perimeter shooting will not be the difference in this game.
I predict a 70-60 win for the Patriots. It will be a bit tougher than the first matchup since it is in Belk, and Davidson has had more time to figure out what to do with Sean Logan out.
A win would put Mason up three games on the four seed.
