Bucket Hat Game: The Ramblers Come to Fairfax

Your first place George Mason Patriots are taking on the 12-7 and 3-3 Loyola Chicago Ramblers.

The newest member of the A10 is coached by Drew Valentine, who has been running the show since the 2021-22 season, but came over to be an assistant before the 2017-18 season. Valentine has an overall record of 70-46 and an A10 record of 22-20.

The Ramblers were a preseason double-bye team, but have dealt with injuries. They have gotten mostly healthy, but will be missing their starting PG, Justin Moore, for the rest of the season. Point guard is very important in LoyChi’s offense, and now they are having to go with some non-traditional options.

Loyola Chicago is running Jalen Quinn and Des Watson at point. Jalen Quinn makes sense, although you would much rather have him as a secondary playmaker. Des Watson is a natural wing, but has been a much better playmaker since he got to Chicago. This would be like having KD Johnson and Darius Maddox as your two PGs. They are good players, but maybe not in that exact role.

Loyola Chicago By The Numbers

Loyola Chicago is the 150^th ranked team on KenPom, with the 160^th offense and 158^th defense. In conference play, the offense has held up…the defense has not. 8^th offense, 15^th defense. This is very strange, since LoyChi’s identity is their defense.

Their A10 defense is giving up an average of 115.1 points per 100 possessions. Mason’s worst defensive game was 112 per 100 against Marquette.

Valentine has them playing at an average pace, 66.9 possessions per game, 196^th.

Offense

The Ramblers have done a good job at putting the ball in the hoop, with a 52.9% eFG, 88^th, and have also gotten to the line a decent bit, at 35.4 free throws per 100 shots, 121^st. They shoot 34.1% from three, slightly above average, but hit 54% of their twos, 82^nd.

In A10 play, that shooting has risen to 37.1%, 2^nd in the conference.

A big part of Loyola Chicago’s offense is having a lot of baskets assisted. They have 59% of made shots coming with assists, which is 43^rd.

Their two guys playing point, Jalen Quinn and Des Watson, have assist rates of 16.3 and 20.9, but turnover rates of 14.8 and 22.9. That is ok from Des Watson, but Quinn having a worse ratio than a wing is kind of crazy.

Des Watson, Jayden Dawson, and Sheldon Edwards are the main shot takers, with shot percentages of 24.8%, 25.1%, and 25.1%.

Watson’s shooting has regressed down to the mean, with him now having a true shooting of 47.9%, and his three-point shooting going down to 33.7%, and his two rate all the way down at 38.4%. Jayden Dawson has a true shooting of 53.4%, which is pretty good, but is only making 32.9% of his threes.

Sheldon Edwards is the guy everyone is scared of, since he went off against Mason last year. This season, Edwards has a true shooting of 61.7%, which is awesome, and is hitting 62.9% of his twos and 39.4% of his threes. This is probably the Jared Billups assignment.

Jalen Quinn doesn’t really take threes, shooting 3-16, but does make his twos at a good rate, 52.5%. Along with making twos, he draws fouls, at 4.6 per 40.

Francis Nwaokorie is their last shooter, making 38.2% of his 34 attempts.

I guess their centers are left-handed. I don’t really get how else you could have such a big discrepancy in the paint.

Defense

The Ramblers were doing well on defense because they were giving a slightly below-average eFG of 51.2%, but opponents were turning it over at the 83^rd highest rate, and only grabbing 28% of offensive rebounds, 87^th best. The turnovers have stood, but the eFG has risen to 55.7%, last in the conference, the ORBs let up have risen to 34.5%, second to last.

With the eFG rise also comes the rise in threes and twos given up. Overall, teams have made 35.8% of their threes, 289^th, and 49.5% of their twos, 145^th. In A10 play, those numbers have risen to 37.9% and 54.8%, both 14^th.

Miles Rubin is their big name defensively, with a block rate of 10.8%, 13^th in the country. He was the preseason DPOY favorite, but I’m not sure you can even be on the all-defensive team if the team defense stays last.

Jayden Dawson, Jalen Deloach, and Kymany Houinsou are decent defensive playmakers, with block rates of 2.7%, 4.2%, and 1.6%, and steals rates of 2%, 2.5%, and 3.1%.

The Ramblers have some guys who can get in foul trouble, with Jalen Quinn at 5.1 per 40, Jalen DeLoach at 5.2, Miles Rubin at 4.8, and freshman Daniil Glazkov at 4.5. The last three make sense since they are bigs or a freshman, but your PG at 5.1 per 40 is kind of strange.

The left wing is crazy. That is so red and so big. At least you can kind of see Miles Rubin in the paint.

Loyola Chicago Scouting Report (First Half vs. Fordham)

I wanted to use their game against Dayton, but I guess that is lost media since it was on CBS Sports Network.

Offense

There is lots of ball movement, with guys getting passes leading them to the rim a lot. There are shades of a Princeton system if you squint.

The Ramblers do pretty well against zones since they move the ball so much anyways. LoyChi knows the angles that will get their ball where they want it. They saw a 2-1-2 zone from Fordham, Watson got an open three, and then Nawokorie got an offensive rebound. That might be more of Fordham being in a different tier of bad than the Ramblers breaking it.

When Fordham ran a zone press, LoyChi also got through that easily.

Surprisingly, entry passes can get careless against any form of defense.

Regarding the guys besides Jalen Quinn, they mostly will back out of fast breaks if there is no advantage.

Jayden Dawson runs around off the ball, but sometimes makes jump passes, which is something may be able to use to get a steal or two during the game. He is dangerous to both teams.

Mason cannot leave Sheldon Edwards open, as he can get hot and change the game. Edwards moves off-ball less than I thought he would, but is still scary, especially when the former Valpo transfer can get his shot off with one dribble or less.

Edwards can cut backdoor, DeLoach can get it to him.

Jalen Quinn wants contact and will get fouled on a couple takes. That comes at a price, as sometimes he will get tunnel vision and jump into triple coverage.

Des Watson can take advantage of switches, but struggles to create for himself against guys who are the same speed.

Miles Rubin is still pretty limited on offense, not doing much scoring-wise away from the rim, but is still a monster lob threat. He is very good at sealing his man off to open up the paint.

Glasgov looks like he will be good in the next couple of years, but is raw right now. The process is there, but not the results.

Defense

I saw it less than I remember, but Loyola Chicago still does the no-middle strategy when they handle ball screens, making sure the ball handler can do anything besides going toward the center of the court. The baseline will be open.

There was lots of matchup zone, but there were open threes between switches sometimes.

I saw a lot of good initial help on the perimeter, but nobody helped the helper after the opposing team passed it the second time.

I also saw a little bit of man press, but nothing really came of it. They dopped into a 3-2 zone that turned into a 1-3-1 a couple times, and Fordham had no clue what to do.

DeLoach is a great one-on-one defender.

Rubin is still a great rim protector, with guys being scared to shoot around him. He is also a good one-on-one defender.

Dawson can get lost off-ball.

Des Watson can struggle guarding guards, his lateral quickness is not impressive on either end.

Nwaokorie moves like he should be a switchable defender, but struggles against guards.

What Does This Mean for Mason?

The Patriots are going to have to keep Sheldon Edwards in check, as he is kind of THE offense for Loyola Chicago right now. Jared Billups, please.

Even though their defense is playing horribly, they do not have a bad defender as a big, so this is a game where Mason might have to score without Haynes or Emejuru producing too much.

Woody Newton will probably have Francis Nwaokorie on him, and he may be able to drive past him.

My prediction is that Mason wins this one 70-58. I think Mason’s offense is ok, but LoyChi’s defense is playing awful. Mason’s defense should outclass Loyola’s offense by a decent bit.

This is a game that is possible to lose, as Loyola Chicago has been the Patriot’s kryptonite since joining the A10, sweeping them last season. Don’t let them ruin the first-place run.

This is the game that the athletics department has been promoting hard, making it the bucket hat game. You cannot lose this one.