The Revolutionary Rivalry Continues in a Big One

Your first place 13-5, 4-1 George Mason Patriots are heading home to take on the 13-4, 2-2 George Washington Revolutionaries.

The last three seasons, GW won the early matchup (MLK Day) and Mason won the second. Let’s hope that it is different this year. If this game was in DC, I would give the Patriots sub-50% chance to win.

The Revolutionaries are coached by former Mason assistant Chris Caputo, who is in his third season at the helm. Caputo has a 44-37 record in his first stint as a head coach, with a 16-24 record in conference play.

Caputo’s name has been thrown around by national guys for the Miami job, which makes a little bit of sense with him being the top guy on the bench there for so long. I don’t think that happens with anything they could do this season, but especially without a top 100 finish. They finished 203^rd and 217^th the last two seasons.  

Darren Buchanan missed their games against Dayton and Rhode Island, both of which had them as the underdog. It is not impossible that GW is a better team without Buchanan.

Trey Moss has missed their last two games with an ankle injury, but was listed as questionable for their last one, so there is a decent chance he will play.

George Washington By The Numbers

George Washington is the 116^th ranked team on KenPom, with the 158^th offense and 117^th defense. Somewhat shockingly, GW has the 11^th offense and 1^st defense in conference play. They’ve played the 8^th hardest schedule in A10 play, so it is real to some extent.

If you told me that the defense would be ranked ahead of the offense in mid-January, I would not have believed you, considering their defenses finished 322^nd and 264^th in Caputo’s first two seasons.

GW teams have been known to have insanely easy OOC schedules, and this season is no different, with them having the second weakest non-con in the country. All of these numbers should be taken with a grain of salt, even if they have mostly held up into conference play.

The Revolutionaries have played pretty fast at 69.3 possessions per game, 109^th, lining up with past seasons.

Former Mason official visitor freshman guard/wing Ty Bevins has broken into the rotation for GW, averaging 12.6 minutes in their last five games.

Offense

Offensively, GW has made it work by being above average in the overall offensive stats, and being excellent at getting to the line. Their eFG%, turnover rate, and offensive rebound rate are all above average, and their free throw rate is at 42.7 per 100 shots, which is 24^th.

The Revs also excel inside, with them hitting 54.1% of their twos, which 91^st. Unfortunately for them, shooting 31.7% from three, 259^th, while taking 43.8% of their shots from back there, 78^th highest, kind of neutralizes that.

GW does tend to get their shots blocked, 12.1% of the time, which is 326^th.

Gerald Drumgoole has taken over as the number one option on offense, which is pretty surprising, taking 29.2% of the shots when he’s on the court. Purely based on baseline stats, he is more efficient than

Buchanan has taken a small back seat, still taking 23% of the shots during his minutes. His eFG is only 44.7%, with a true shooting of 51.6%. Both are below average. He hasn’t evolved as the shooting threat he could possibly be, hitting 5 of his 30 attempts. On the bright side, his physicality is helping him draw 5.8 fouls per 40.

Christian Jones, a freshman, has taken the starting PG job, and has done a little bit of a better job than Jacoi Hutchinson, with a similar assist rate, but 5% lower turnover rate. Jones is shooting 37.2% from three, which is very good.

Trey Autry is a shooter off the bench who has recently taken the starting job, hitting 43.1% of his threes. He has the highest offensive rating on the team, and it is easy to see why.

Rafael Castro doesn’t take many shots, but when he does, he gets fouled, having a free throw rate of 78.1, which is 11^th highest. Castro only draws 4.6 fouls per 40, so that is somewhat low volume for such a high free throw rate.

Sean Hansen has played exclusively center in the past, but has been getting minutes at the four alongside Castro since Buchanan’s injury and move to the bench. I imagine Buchanan comes back to the starting lineup though. Hansen is out there for his shooting and passing, being somewhat of a Princeton big, shooting 38.1% from three and having a assist rate of 23.1%, the highest on the team. He also has a turnover rate of 27.3%, so maybe they should try something else.

That’s some Moreyball right there. It looks so much less clunky now that James Bishop is gone.

Defense

GW is very good at pretty much everything except rebounding, giving up 32.7% of offensive rebound opportunities, which is 291^st.

The Revs give up an eFG of 46.1%, 31^st, force turnover 19.5% of the time, 74^th, and don’t let opponents get to the line a lot, only 28.3 free throws per 100 shots, 76^th.

With the eFG, opponents are shooting 29.7% from three, 29^th, and 47.1% from two, 56^th. That is a good combination.

Along with that, GW is getting a steal on 13.4% of their defensive possessions, 16^th highest.

Christian Jones and Sean Hansen have steal rates at 4.1% and 4.3%, both being high. Castro has a block rate of 5.8%, and Hansen’s is 4%.

Nobody on the team really fouls very much except Ty Bevins at 4.7, which is not crazy high for a freshman.

The right side of the court is really locked up, it is weird seeing a good shot chart from GW. Castro is a better rim protector than I expected.

George Washington Scouting Report (1^st Half vs. Duquesne)

This was their first game with Darren Buchanan back, although he came off the bench.

Offense

The offense honestly looks more clunky with Buchanan out there. If you watch the Wizards, think of the difference between when Kyle Kuzma is in vs. out. Buchanan likes fadeaway midranges, and once he thinks about shooting, he is shooting.

There are lots of curling actions in their offense, it seems like they are trying to make it more Princeton with Hansen.

GW struggled in the one zone possession Duquesne threw at them at the end of the first half.

Christian Jones can make some good passes, but it seems like his decisions are predetermined. He’s willing to make cross-court passes, but on other possessions, will get tunnel vision and dribble around for 28 seconds. I guess Jones is the next James Bishop.

Rafael Castro is a major lob threat, and has a little more extensive post game than I thought, although he has a pretty loose handle.

Sean Hansen will attempt some daring backdoor cut passes. He does struggle in the post unless he gets a smaller guy switched onto him.

Gerald Drumgoole is a bit of an underwhelming athlete, which shows up with his speed with the ball.

Defense

GW opened up in a matchup zone, and stayed in it for most of what I saw. They would sometimes run a soft man press.

Everyone gets in the passing lanes, trying to get deflections and cause chaos. Jones was very aggressive at going for steals, both on-ball and in passing lanes.

The team overall struggles with ball-screens heading toward the basket.

GW covers non-shooters close no matter where they are.

Hansen is good at getting in position for rebounding, and is a decent rim protector, but is not very good 1-on-1.

Trey Autry can get blown by and lost off when he is off the ball.

What Does This Mean for Mason?

Brayden O’Connor cannot get pickpocketed by Christian Jones. That just cannot happen. Guys jumping in the passing lanes makes me a bit worried. Mason is going to have to throw careful passes.

I think Mason wins this one since it is at EBA, let’s say 70-60. I’m not sure I believe in GW’s defense, even if they are ranked highly, due to how bad they have been in the past with Caputo.

This is the first game with students back on campus, kinda, so hopefully there will be good attendance.