Your George Mason Patriots, 12-5 and 3-1, are heading west to take on the 11-5 and 1-2 Dayton Flyers.
Just a warning, I was running up the word count for whatever reason. It was not a conscious decision, it just kind of happened.
The Flyers were looking like a surefire at-large team until their last two games against GW and UMass on the road. You can lose one of those, not both. Strange things happen in the Charles Entertainment Smith Center, sure, but UMass? Cmon.
Dayton is coached by Anthony Grant, who has been with the team since 2017-18, in his second stint in the conference, with the first being at VCU. Grant has an overall record of 353-187, 160-77 with Dayton, and an 89-38 conference record during his time with the Flyers.
Grant finally broke through last season and got his Flyers the NCAA tournament appearance he deserved, with the 2020 potential one-seed being taken from him with the cancellation of the tourney, and them being the first team out in 2022 with a bid-stealing Richmond.
Bench center Isaac Jack did not play in their most recent game against UMass, but his minutes have been extremely inconsistent, and unless he has had multiple injured stretches, Jack is more out of the rotation than injured. Since he did get a DNP last game after playing minutes (few) in three straight games, I had to point it out, although I suspect he was available to play.
If Jack is not available to play, that puts a lot of pressure on standout freshman center Amael L’Etang, who has done a decent job staying out of foul trouble, averaging a reasonable 4.3 fouls per 40. It is not out of the realm of possibility that 7’1 L’Etang is putting his name into the draft after his sophomore season.
It was not uncommon to see Hamad Mousa, a 6’8 freshman wing out of Qatar, in the first round of preseason NBA mock drafts. Unfortunately, it seems like he has pretty much fallen out of the rotation, and it would be pretty tough to maintain one-and-done status like that.
Redshirt freshman Jaiun Simon played very sparingly during non-conference play, but seems to have cracked the rotation as the backup four.
Dayton By The Numbers
The Dayton Flyers are the 54th ranked team on KenPom, with the 36th offense and 89th defense. Most, including me, thought their offensive and defensive rankings would be swapped.
The Flyers have played the 60th hardest schedule in the country, scheduling the 48th hardest non-conference section, so you should take that into account with their stats.
Grant has Dayton playing uncharacteristically not incredibly slow, at 66 possessions per game, which is the fastest since their 2020 season when they were a theoretical one seed with Obi Toppin. Since 2020, their rankings have been 305th, 344th, 354th, and 334th in terms of pace. Good on Grant for getting out of his comfort zone for the betterment of the team.
Their pace has been the highest in conference play, but I believe that is more of a product of who they have played, more than the way they would like to play. In the past, Dayton has struggled when forced to speed up, and it seems like this season is similar.
Their games at 68 possessions or above are a 30 point win against 325th ranked Saint Francis (71), a 5 point win against 55th Northwestern (69), an 8 point win against 236th Ball State (71), a 2 point loss against 29th UNC (78), a 5 point loss against 4th Iowa State (69, this one is good considering the pace/talent), a 14 point win against 170th La Salle (78), a 20 point loss to 105th GW (68), and a 4 point loss to 206th UMass (70).
There is at least correlation between relatively high pace and Dayton struggling, but it is up to you to think whether or not it is causation.
This is an incredibly old team, with the average D1 experience being 3.05 years, which is 8th highest. This makes sense, since their starting lineup consists of a redshirt junior, junior, 5th year senior, senior, and another 5th year senior. There are not any sophomores on this team.
They may be old, but they are not big. Dayton’s average height is 6’4, which is 339th in the country. Their starting lineup is 6’0, 5’10, 6’3, 6’7, and 6’8. That can cause mismatches in either direction with Mason’s size.
Grant has been running about 8-9 deep with his rotations during conference play.
Offense
The Flyers have an eFG of 54.7%, 78th highest, and a turnover rate of 14.4%, 20th lowest. This is a good combination for good offense.
Dayton shoots 34.1% from three, which is slightly above average, but during conference play, that has dropped to 26.6%, 13th in the A10.
As has been pointed out by Joe Szymanski, Dayton has not shot over 30% from three in their last 6 games, with December 7th against Lehigh having them shoot 63.6% (???) from three. During the six-game stretch, they shot 25.4% from deep.
The shooting seemed a little fake, as there were preseason concerns about how much DaRon Holmes’ gravity affected their shooting, along with them losing Koby Brea.
During The Maui Invitational, which was against UNC, Iowa State, and UConn, they shot 43.3% from deep. Maui is known for having soft rims, whether that is the design of the rims they use, or a product of the humid air, but it really seems like it is real and gave Dayton a Mickey Mouse shooting run against some great teams and UNC.
The Flyers do a great job at getting to the line, shooting 40.6 free throw per 100 shots, which is 36th highest. This has held up in conference play, elevating to 45.1%, 2nd. That stat is helped by Zed Key drawing 6.3 fouls per 40 minutes, 65th highest, Malachi Smith and Nate Santos each drawing 4.5, and Amael L’Etang with 4.4.
Nobody is safe. That’s two centers, a PG, and a big wing/forward each drawing a lot of fouls. Anyone and everyone can be in foul trouble.
The Flyers have 61.9% of their made shots assisted, 17th highest, a lot of which is due to their point guard. Most of the time that is in line with three-point attempt rate, but there is no correlation here.
The offense runs through Malachi Smith, who’s 42.3% assist rate is putting him in the same stratosphere as former SLU PG Yuri Collins, who peaked at 49.1%. Smith has been one of the biggest wildcards over the past couple of seasons, as he has dealt with problems staying healthy.
Now that Malachi is having a full season, he is likely making All-A10 First Team, and if Dayton ends up being the 1 seed, probably gets a decent amount of A10 Player of the Year votes. Along with all that passing, Smith is averaging 10.9 points and shooting 42.1% from deep.
Another reason Dayton has fallen off a little bit is Enoch Cheeks coming back down to Earth. Cheeks started the season off looking like a surefire All-A10 1st Team player, and has gone back to being a high-level glue guy/role player. Think of going from Vince Williams (VCU) to Ticket Gaines. You’re definitely still happy with the production. The former Robert Morris Colonial is shooting 35.8% from three on the year, but has gone 0-7 in conference play.
Zed Key was one of the biggest A10 transfers, as he was a four-year contributor at Ohio State, and has lived up to the hype. Key has a true shooting of 67.9%, which is just crazy. He’s .7% minutes below the threshold, but that would put him at 23rd, and .2% ahead of Saint Joseph’s future top 40 NBA draft pick Rasheer Fleming. His free throw rate is 86 attempts per 100 shots, which puts him at 4th in the country, if he had played 4.48 more minutes (19 seconds per game) throughout the season.
Nate Santos is a very solid big wing/forward, who starts at the four for Dayton. The former Pitt Panther is shooting 38.8% from three, and has a true shooting of 57.4%.
5’10 Javon Bennett is the true definition of shooting guard. Bennett shoots 36.8% from three, and has a barely positive assist-turnover ratio.
That right corner, along with a decent amount of the wing, is crazy red. In my mind, that is where Nate Santos and Malachi Smith shoot a lot from, which makes sense. Straight on and the left wing are rough. I guess Zed Key’s gravity is bringing the wing defenders in.
The Flyers get a lot of their points from the line, 21.8%, 53rd most. This is good, as it stresses defenses and their personnel, but can really stink if the refs decide to “let the boys play” during any given play (the Mason-UMass refs did not do this).
Defense
On defense, Dayton is pretty unspectacular. They don’t force too many turnovers, 16.5%, 244th, and opponents make 76.9% of their free throws against them 348th lowest.
I think the free throw number is a combination of them playing against a lot of P5s, who have centers who can hit their free throws, along with maybe fouling guards at the rim a lot? Nobody on the team besides Isaac Jack (7.2 per 40) has an exploitable foul rate.
Posh Alexander, Enoch Cheeks, and Javon Bennett are all steal guys, with 3.6, 3.4, and 3.2% rates. This is where Posh, a four-year starter in the Big East, gets his minutes.
This is before doing the scouting section, but Jaiun Simon has got to be a good defender. None of his stats stand out besides defensive rebounding, and he isn’t on the floor to *just* grab rebounds and do cardio.
You can really see them missing DaRon Holmes with the right side of the paint being so red. They really struggle with corner threes. It makes sense on the left side, since it looks like that guy helps down into the paint, but the right side is too red to have the paint also be red.
Dayton Scouting Report (First Half vs. UMass)
Offense
The offense relies heavily on Malachi Smith’s rim pressure, as it gets Zed Key open shots at the rim, while also getting shooters open. If someone is open, Smith will find them.
The Flyers will randomly go into a fast break off of a made basket, but kind of struggle in that type of offense since they have so many little guys.
Zed Key is very solid around the rim, but can travel on his post spin move.
Javon Bennett is pretty good in the pick-and-roll, and will hit open threes.
L’Etang is a pick-and-popper, and is a pretty good passer both from the perimeter and in the post. He does not play like the typical 7-foot A10 freshman.
Nate Santos will hit threes and attack closeouts.
Defense
Dayton does not switch too much, trying to play true man on the perimeter. They dropped into a 1-2-2 zone and UMass struggled to move the ball. The Flyers will also play ambiguous zone, where they’ll switch from 1-3-1 to 2-2-1 to 1-2-2 within the same possession. As you might guess, Dayton will also run some matchup zone, but the vast majority of possessions are man.
The Flyers will leave bad shooters open until they are proven otherwise.
UMass went on a mini-run by having their big man seal off Zed Key, which caused their other four to have to foul if they got beat. That is a side effect of having a non-rim protecting wing playing the four. The sealing off also worked against L’Etang.
It seems like Grant noticed this very quickly, as Mousa, Simon, and Jacob Conner all went into the game one after the other trying to help with the defense problem, but all it did was take away from the offense. I also did not notice that defense problem change significantly with any of them, but Simon was probably the best.
If Grant is worried about it, I hope Mason will attempt to take advantage.
Zed Key will help on ball-handlers in the paint, but he is also a good one-on-one defender. Bennett is a very good defender for being 5’10.
Santos will roam and help down from the corner on entry passes, and will also attempt to draw charges.
Posh Alexander was less impressive on defense than I expected, but he is a bit of a disrupter with his constant poking at the ball when someone dribbles near him.
L’Etang plays good drop coverage, but struggles when guards get to the rim. He’s also a good post defender, so there could be trouble there with Haynes.
What Does This Mean for Mason?
This is yet another example of Mason playing a team that doesn’t offensively rebound well, nor force turnovers at a particularly high rate. They aren’t actively opposed to it like Richmond was, but this is still a favorable matchup for the Patriots, in terms of playstyle.
I am putting a lot of stock into Dayton’s center being sealed off hurting their defense, and I hope Mason will at least attempt to take advantage of that. This could be a Woody Newton driving game.
I think that teams “owning” other teams across regimes/play styles generally is more chance than causation, but Kim English and Tony Skinn Mason teams are 3-1 against Dayton. Dayton has not lost a home game since the Ronald Polite steal game in late February of 2023. This would be a really funny stat to pull up in the 2026-27 season if Mason wins.
It is more reasonable to pick Mason to win than it was 2 weeks ago, so I’m gonna say a 70-65 victory for the Patriots. Why? It would be really funny for Dayton to go a full conference cycle and have Mason be on both ends of their home winning streak.
