Your 11-5 and 2-1 George Mason Patriots are taking on the 6-10 and 1-2 UMass Minutemen, who are coming off a major upset against Dayton, for the last time as conference opponents (excluding the conference tourney) before they head over to the MAC for football reasons.
UMass’ victory over Dayton, combined with the Flyers’ loss in the Charles Entertainment Smith Center vs. George Washington, turned them from an at-large team to an at-large contender. They will have to earn their way back in.
The Minutemen are coached by the polarizing Frank Martin, who has a record of 329-238 overall, a 41-37 record with UMass, and an 18-21 record in the A10 play. Martin made the Final Four in the middle of his South Carolina tenure, but did not make the tournament any other season with the Gamecocks.
UMass lost their two All-A10 First-Team players in Matt Cross and Josh Cohen, who brought big post presences, and the team has not been able to recover offensively since. Their interior gravity gave their shooters better opportunities (still only shot 31.3%), which has been showing this season.
The Minutemen have Shahid Muhammad, who was a Mason visitor last offseason. It seems as though he has somewhat fallen out of the rotation, with his playing time decreasing after fall exams, and getting only five minutes in their victory against Dayton.
I had this team finishing 7th. My bad y’all.
UMass By The Numbers
UMass is the 211th team on KenPom, with the 221st offense and 202nd defense. In conference play, they have the 11th offense and 9th defense. None of their stats deviate much between conference play and the rest of the season.
Martin has his guys playing at a very fast pace, 71.8 possessions per game, 35th most.
They may need to slow down a bit, as the Minutemen have an eFG of 45.5%, 330th, and only hit 25.8% of their threes, 361st. Their best shooter is sophomore PG Jaylen Curry, who has hit 30% of his 60 attempts. At least they don’t take too many, with only 32.5% of their shots coming from behind the arc, 331st.
Rahsool Diggins has shot 129 threes, and only hit 27.9% of them. Diggins is one to watch out for, as he shot 36.8% on 204 attempts last season. I imagine that his decrease in percentage is more related to shot quality than him randomly getting worse from three, so it is important to not leave the former UConn Huskie open.
Other than those two…there really aren’t any shooters. Daniel Rivera has hit 18.8% on 16 attempts, Marqui Worthy 12.5% on 16, Nate Guerengomba 23.1% on 26, Akil Watson 33.3% on 18, Jayden Ndjigue 22.2% on 18, and Daniel Hankins-Sanford 15.4% on 13.
On the bright side, UMass doesn’t turn it over, 69th lowest, gets offensive rebounds, 98th highest rate, and gets to the line a lot, 87th most.
Ewwwwwwwwww.
You have no clue what is going to happen when Marqui Worthy gets the ball. 20.9% shot rate, 22.5% assist rate, 27.2% turnover rate. All of those percentages are comically high.
Jaylen Curry is this team’s silver lining, with him looking like a upper-level starter if the scoring comes around, as he has a 28.2% assist rate to a 10% turnover rate. The thing holding him back the most is shooting 37.9% from two on 116 attempts.
Daniel Rivera is interesting, being a super well-rounded guy, and draws 5.7 fouls per 40.
Rahsool Diggins is probably one of the most disappointing players in the conference, with him winning last season’s most improved player award, and then falling back, or below, to where he was. Diggins takes 28% of the shots when he’s on the court, but only has an eFG of 42.5%.
On defense, the Minutemen’s metrics are kind of boring. They’re slightly above or below average at everything except opponent free throw percentage and block rate.
Above average: eFG%, turnover%, 2pt%, steal%
Below average: rebounding, foul rate, 3pt%
They’re crazy in block rate at 15.4%, which is 13th. Below, you can see who that is.
Opponents are hitting a lot of their free throws, 75.8%, 336th, which I assume means they foul driving guards.
Malek Abdelgowad, their starting center, commits 5.2 fouls per 40, which is pretty high. He committed 4 fouls in his 7 minutes vs. Dayton. That is insane. This guy has the most inconsistent minutes I have ever seen from a starter.
Shahid Muhammad has a block rate of 15.7% in his limited minutes, and only commits 3.5 fouls per 40. I am honestly pretty surprised the block rate has stayed so high and he’s kept the foul rate very reasonable. The Juco transfer is not being kept off the floor for foul reasons, it is mostly likely due to pretty much only being a lob threat.
It would have been really funny if Muhammad came to Mason, since Skinn could run lineups where neither team scores more than once between media timeouts.
UMass being so good on the left perimeter and bad on the right probably means they run a matchup zone and whoever is on the left wing is much better.
UMass Scouting Report (2nd Half vs. Richmond)
I used the first half of this game to look at Richmond, I’ll use the second for UMass.
These guys were definitely playing hard. I can see how they beat Dayton.
On offense, it relies heavily on Jaylen Curry drive-and-kicks. I guess his two percentage is so low since defenders can help off of non-existent shooters. Nobody on UMass really has a post presence besides 6’6 Daniel Rivera. This was their offensive identity last season.
Curry is looking for foul calls going to the rim, hopefully Mason does not bail him out. He also can get tunnel vision and take really bad shots. The sophomore can get himself open, the shot just has a hard time falling.
Diggins takes ill-advised heat checks when he is not hot. He had 0 points at the time. It makes me sad when he gets the ball.
Rivera moves like a guard, so there is mismatch potential. He would rather take contested shots than pass to the perimeter. I do not know what the right choice is there.
Shahid Muhammad does not look natural in the post, and has rough hands. He will seal his man if needed.
Marqui Worthy can make cross-court passes.
Freshman Nate Guerengomba struggles against the press. They were just trying to get the ball out of his hands and Richmond smelled blood and attacked.
Akil Watson sets pretty good screens, but has rough hands.
Jayden Ndjigue can get a bit careless with the ball.
On defense, UMass is generally committed to stopping stuff at the rim. Although, if they do close out on a three, Martin’s guys will do it aggressively once they commit.
The Minutemen will occasionally double ball-handlers. They’ll get a decent bit aggressive, sometimes doing a soft man press, sometimes hard pressing. When UMass hard presses, they can foul a decent bit. If they hard press, Martin lets most of his guys come past half court, with only 1 or 0 guys staying home. The center will follow his guy all the way past half court if the opposing center goes to get the ball in the press.
This team is fun when they’re doing wild stuff on defense, like rotating between zones a bunch on the same possession. They are looking for chaos.
UMass will switch a decent bit on the perimeter, since they have the guys to do it, mostly.
The Minutemen sometimes have trouble corralling rebounds, as they kinda get knocked out of bounds by them pretty often.
Daniel Rivera either has the slowest feet ever on defense, or it is planned in some zones to let guards drive right past him.
Shahid Muhammad can get sealed off by a center in the paint. He’s an athletic rim protector, with his block rate being a bit inflated compared to his impact, and is a little goaltend-happy.
Jayden Ndjigue is feisty. He was a nominee for 3 Bid League’s Glue Guy of the Year award last season.
Akil Watson is a decent defender in the post.
What Does This Mean for Mason?
Mason needs to make sure that they can play their game, and not less UMass speed them up. Dayton let the game get to 70 possessions, 4 above their average. 70 would be Mason’s 2nd fastest D1 game, with the fastest being the loss to Marquette.
I think Mason wins this game 75-65, with it being a bit of a faster game. Mason scores a little over a point per possession, UMass a little under.
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