Your 9-4 George Mason Patriots are taking on the 10-3 Davidson Wildcats in their conference opener. This is a huge game for both teams, as both teams are considered unknowns by the public.
Davidson was part of the Providence sweep, where the A10 went 3-0 against the Friars.
The Wildcats are coached by Matt McKillop, son of Davidson legend Bob McKillop. Matt is in his third season at the helm, with an overall record of 41-36 and a 13-23 record in conference play.
Davidson may be missing their starting center, Sean Logan, who was their main defensive presence inside. He got a knee injury early into their game against Temple, then missing their games on December 21st and 28th. Per TheBelkReport on Twitter/X, Logan was at the end of the bench in street clothes. That means that he was not in a “he stays out unless we need him” situation.
Since Logan got injured, the Wildcats have been running Reed Bailey at center with Bobby Durkin at the four. They aren’t small, as they were running pretty big before.
Davidson By The Numbers
Davidson is the 108th ranked team on KenPom, with the 77th offense and 172nd defense. This is the highest that the offense has been ranked during the young McKillop’s run as head coach by a sizeable margin.
McKillop has his guys playing at a pretty slow pace, but this is more because they are waiting for a great shot, which can come at any time throughout the shot clock.
The Wildcats go about 9 deep, but have gone 8 deep since Logan went out.
Davidson has 59.2% minute continuity between last year and this year, which is 22nd highest in the country. This is the main reason I was higher on the Wildcats this season.
Another big thing for the former SoCon member is that they have an average height of 6’6.5, which is 23rd tallest.
On offense, the biggest revelation is the three-ball finally going down. In Matt McKillop’s first two seasons, his teams shot 31.9% and 30.7% from three, while being ranked 209th and 107th in three-point attempt rate. They’re taking 42.2% of their shots from behind the arc, and making 37.2% of them, which is 54th.
With that profile, this year’s Davidson smokes last year’s Mason. Luckily Mason’s three-point defense has much better this season, albeit with mostly sub-A10 competition.
The Wildcats have an eFG of 54.7% and turnover rate of 15%, which are 56th and 48th best in the country. Taking and making a lot of shots is a good recipe for success.
Their main offensive weakness is offensive rebounding, as they are ranked 258th at 27.3%, but that is more of a choice, as Davidson plays a lot of five-out.
It seems like their bigs like to set up on the left side of the paint, as those hexagons are bigger in that side. Along with that, the Wildcats are shooting better on the right side of the court from three. I guess the gravity of Reed Bailey gives that side of the court more space.
Reed Bailey, 1, takes up 30.9% of the Wildcats’ possessions, which is 39th in the country. As you may guess, he is also the leading shot taker. The big man draws 7.3 fouls per 40 minutes, which is 17th in the country. When you look at Bailey’s eFG, it is a fine 50.7%. When you add in free throws (true shooting), it shoots up to 57.8%.
The 6’10 forward is 6-12 on his threes this season, which is probably not “real”, but real enough that you do not want to leave him wideee open from deep. I’m not sure if this is related, but Reed has not taken a three since moving from the four to the five. The big man also leads the team in assist rate at 23.8%. Welcome back, Josh Oduro.
Connor Kochera, 23, a 6’5 wing, has been very solid for the Wildcats, hitting 35% of his threes and 64% of his twos. This is college Corey Kispert. The former William & Mary player had made strides as both a playmaker and foul drawer, setting career highs in both assist and free throw rate. Kochera has been the secondary playmaker this team needs.
Bobby Durkin, 2, a 6’7 wing, has truly broken out this season, leading the team in three-point shots at 90, and making 44.4% of them. Bobby Buckets leads the team in minutes and is second in shots.
Mike Loughnane, a 6’4 guard, has been Davidson’s best shooter efficiency wise, hitting 48.4% of his 31 threes this season.
Robert Blums, 45, a 6’4 guard, was on some deep preseason NBA prospect lists, but considering he only has an assist rate of 7.3%, and is only hitting 27.3% of his threes, Blums will not be in one-and-done considerations.
Zach Laput, 20, yet another 6’4 guard, transferred up after four years at D2 Bentley University, and has been decently efficient, with a 52.7% eFG. He’s made 55.3% of his twos and 32.1% of his threes, which is good enough.
On defense, a lot of their weaknesses and strengths are the inverse of their offense.
The Wildcats struggle to force turnovers, with only a 15.5% rate, 295th in the country.
On the bright side, they only allow a 26.9% offensive rebound rate, which is 74th lowest. This is likely due to playing that Bailey-Logan lineup for a while.
Davidson allows teams to shoot 35.6% from deep, which is 264th in the country. It does help that teams are only taking 36.1% of their shots from behind the arc, which is 82nd lowest.
That is pretty good paint protection, but I can tell that whoever is generally in the right corner helps down more often than the guy in the left corner. Also, that left wing three is looking awesome. Zach Anderson, I’m looking at you.
Sean Logan, 15, is possibly out, but if he does play, Logan has a 8.4% block rate. The center also commits 6.2 fouls per 40, so he may be a bit of a block/jump bot.
Joe Hurlburt, 8, a 6’11 center, is getting pretty limited playing time, likely due to his 6.7 fouls per 40.
This is a pretty odd stat, but Bobby Durkin, Zach Laput, and Robnert Blums have zero blocks on the year. Along with that, Blums also doesn’t have a single steal. If you look down the block and steal rates of this team’s players, there is a concerning lack of defensive playmaking.
Davidson Scouting Report (First Half vs. Temple)
I picked this game since it is pretty recent, and I will get to see how Davidson plays with and without Sean Logan.
Logan got hurt very early on, grabbed his knee, went back in, and then came out a bit later and never went back in. It sounds like he was not on crutches or anything at their most recent game, so they may have just been saving him for conference play.
On offense, they’re Davidson, so everyone without the ball is pretty much moving at all times. There are a ton of off-ball screens.
The shot clock essentially does not matter against the Wildcats until it hits 0. They can get the same shot with 5 seconds left that they may have with 25. You have to finish the possession. Davidson can also run multiple concepts within one possession, which can make it very difficult to defend such a variety.
There are lots of curl cuts to the basket, and if that guy gets the pass, if someone helps onto him, he can find the open man.
Occasionally the off-ball movement works against Davidson, as the ball handler can make a move to the basket and a guy will cut right in line with him, causing awful spacing and a traffic-y dribbling environment.
In regard to the center position, there are lots of dribble hand-offs. They play a similar role to the Richmond/Princeton enter. It isn’t exactly the Princeton system, but it is not far from it.
If the Wildcats happen to get an offensive rebound, the chances of them getting an open three are pretty high.
You cannot lose Davidson’s shooters in transition, as they will not hesitate to take open threes. Even if someone is close, Wildcat shooters consider themselves open until a hand is put up. Mason needs to put their hands up. If you go under a screen, Davidson will shoot it.
The Wildcats generally shoot off of two foot at the rim, which gives them better control.
Connor Kochera is a movement shooter, like pretty much everyone on Davidson. He can also post up, if given a smaller defender.
Sean Logan sets lots of ball screens, and does not have the best touch around the rim.
Reed Bailey seeks more contact than I remembered him doing in the past. Bailey is not the best when he gets the ball in the far paint area. If the 6’10 forward is within easy post hook range, it is over. If he is past that, it gets rough. The location of him getting the ball heavily dictates how successful he is. Pretty much, Bailey is not a huge advantage creator, but he takes advantage of whatever the defense gives him. A caveat to this is that the big man does pretty well if he gets the ball on the perimeter with a clear paint, as Bailey can probably beat in his man in a race to the rim.
The Hunter Adam-Reed Bailey pick and roll is deadly. Your 4 and 5 running that can cause some serious problems. Adam, 12, is a 6’7 wing who play the 3 and 4 for them.
Bobby Buckets likes to put defenders in jail, where he gets them stuck behind him.
Laput loves the reverse layup.
On defense, the Wildcats play a pretty man-heavy defense, trying their absolute best to avoid switches.
Davidson went into a 1-3-1 zone out of a timeout and forced an airball three early in the shot clock. Every possession that they ran this, which I saw four of, Temple was shocked and had no clue what to do. I really hope that was more of a Temple problem than the doing of the Wildcats. This is one of the most worrying things I gathered from this.
Kochera is a decent point-of-attack defender, but is not a lockdown guy by any means, especially on slashers.
Bobby Durkin is a decent perimeter guy, but he will likely not be on any of Mason’s self-creators.
Bailey is pretty good in the paint, but struggles a bit if he has to go out to the perimeter.
Blums seems to be a pretty good perimeter defender, although he was never used as a point-of-attack guy.
What Does This Mean for Mason?
I would be much more worried about this game if I didn’t watch a home JMU team shoot 10-40 from deep against Mason. Skinn seems to be able to handle three-point shooting teams with the current configuration.
Mason’s 2-3 or 1-3-1 zone will either work crazy well or crazy awful against Davidson. Either they completely shut down the passing lanes, or they are just giving up open threes to a team that is blazing from deep. I would like to see them try it if the normal defense is not working too well.
Speaking of zone defense, Davidson’s 1-3-1 worries me a little bit. I could see it working well early on in the game, and becoming their main defense.
Davidson’s weaknesses, offensive rebounding and forcing turnovers, line up with what Mason struggles with. If the Patriots don’t turn it and over do win on the defensive glass, it will be tough for them to lose.
My prediction is that Mason wins 71-65. A comfortable win, but not a blowout. This would be a very good start to conference play.
This is a losable game, and it is up to Skinn to make sure his team comes out on top.
