Your George Mason Patriots will be taking on the 5th AP ranked Duke Blue Devils in Cameron Indoor.
This will likely be the highest ranked team Mason plays all season, and a win, while highly unlikely, could get them into at-large conversations. It would at least undo the Central Michigan and ECU losses.
Duke is coached by Jon Scheyer, who is in his third season at Duke, with this group looking to be his best. Scheyer has a record of 62-20.
The Blue Devils have some names that are likely familiar to some, including Patrick Ngongba and Darren Harris, both of whom went to Paul VI. They also have Cooper Flagg, who is the consensus number one pick in the 2025 draft. Lastly, they have Sion James, who was a player that Mason went against with Tulane.
Mason has some guys who are familiar with Duke, as Darius Maddox has significant time, with Woody Newton playing at Duke once with Syracuse as a freshman, and Jalen Haynes being on a Virginia Tech team who played the Blue Devils twice, once in Cameron.
Maliq Brown was a possible inactive, but will be playing per Jon Rothstein. I was going to say they might rest him for conference play, but Mason is Duke’s hardest opponent until January 4th. The ACC is sneakily bad.
Duke By The Numbers
Duke is the 3rd ranked team, with the 12th ranked offense, and 2nd ranked defense.
They’re crazy good at pretty much everything, so I won’t mention most of that. They have a 6’5 guy, and then everyone else in their rotation is 6’6 or taller. Their most common lineup is 6’5 – 6’6 – 6’6 – 6’9 – 6’9. Big. And even with that center being 6’9, the backup is 7’2.
Duke is the tallest team in the country, with an average height of 6’7.6”. That is including a 5’8 walk-on who has played 2.2% of minutes.
The Blue Devils’ biggest weaknesses come at the line. On the offensive end, they shoot only 29.2 free throws per 100 shots, which is 279th. This is likely because they shoot 48.1% of their shots from behind the arc, which is 28th highest.
Red in the paint, and red most everywhere on the perimeter. At least they aren’t too good from straight on.
Cooper Flagg, who is 6’9 and hopefully a Wizard in June, is pretty much their point guard. There are no other true point guards on the roster, and he has the highest assist rate on the team. The 6’9 wing/forward is second in the KenPom Player of the Year race.
Maliq Brown and 7’2 Khaman Maluach, have offensive rebounding rates of 13.3 and 13.5%, which are both top 100 nationally.
A lot of the Blue Devils are theoretically great shooters, with Flagg, Caleb Foster, Kon Knueppel, and Mason Gillis shooting 22.2%, 31.4%, 34.5%, and 26.9%. Some of those percentages are not bad, but you would expect it to be higher for a team that shoots so many threes.
Tyrese Proctor and Isaiah Evans are actually great shooters, shooting 41.5% and 50% from three. A little caveat, Evans has not had any okay shooting games, he is either shooting 6-8 or 0-3.
On the defensive end, opponents are hitting 77.8% of their free throws, which is 346th lowest. This could be a product of them playing a pretty tough schedule, so players are already more likely to hit their free throws, but I am guessing this means either Duke fouls guards a lot, or they REALLY do not foul bigs inside.
Blue everywhere except the left wing. Zach Anderson, please save us.
Opponents shoot a lot of threes, 42.2% of their shots, which is 258th lowest. Teams get 35.1% of their points from beyond the arc, which is 77th.
Cooper Flagg and Khaman Maluach have block rates of 5.6% and 5.5%, both top 200 in the country. Sion James and Maliq Brown have steal rates of 4.2% and 6%, 76th and 6th.
Duke Scouting Report (First Half vs. Incarnate Word)
I was struggling to pick a game, and then I saw that 285th ranked Incarnate Word put up a fight in the first half. They did end up losing 72-46 though.
On offense, Duke was flustered on their first possession when IW played man-to-man defense. When Incarnate Word went into a 1-3-1, which was pretty often, Duke either got open corner threes, or a lob to Maluach. The defense relied on the Blue Devils having an ok shooter missing an open three.
IW was playing man on the perimeter and zone in the paint, which made Duke play the in-between game and take midranges. It was working for a bit.
The Blue Devils often do not play as a team in the fast break, letting whoever has the ball create their own shot. If the ball-handler does decide to pass it out, it is probably for an open three.
If Duke can move the ball around fast with nobody challenging the passing lanes, they are bound to get someone an open shot.
Maluach seals off his man for driving teammates very well, and, as mentioned earlier, is a major lob threat.
Flagg is a great passer. He’s deadly on the short-roll. If someone helped over, the hopefully future Wizard will find the open guy. This isn’t a positive or minus to most people (negative to me), but the 6’9 wing/forward does take a lot of midranges. It feels like his turnaround midrange is going to go in every time he takes it.
Caleb Foster loves the reverse layup.
On defense, Duke has a lot of switchable defenders, so they pretty much switch everything. They opened up the game in more of a true zone, but played a lot of matchup zone, where you play man in your zone and switch when needed.
The Blue Devils occasionally press full-court, but I only saw it being run in man.
Duke will double the ball sometimes, especially if there is a non-shooter on the perimeter. Mason has to hit those, if they leave anyone who can possibly chuck one up.
The Blue Devils can lose shooters in transition, even when the break is over, which makes sense for such a young team. Sometimes someone will just not be able to find their man if the offense plays five-out.
It will be very hard to shoot over 7’2 Maluach. On the bright side, he is very goaltend-happy.
Mason Gillis seems to be a guy that Mason should be able to take advantage of on both ends.
Caleb Foster can get beat back-door.
Tyrese Proctor gets lots of deflections.
Finally, Flagg is a crazy defender. He is pretty good one-on-one, but makes his mark as a helper in the paint. Cooper has no weaknesses on this end.
What Does This Mean For Mason?
This will be the biggest test for if the three-point defense has truly been fixed between last season and this one. It will also be important to see how the defensive rebounding goes.
Woody Newton will be incredibly important in this game, as I think he might be the only guy on the roster with any chance to handle Cooper Flagg. Maybe Jalen Haynes?
Gio Emejuru will probably have to play all of the Khaman Maluach minutes, as 6’8 to 7’2 is too much of a difference for Haynes to handle.
Prediction: No comment. Of course, I want Mason to win, but my goal is for the Patriots to force the Blue Devils to play in a way that they are not comfortable with. If Duke still wins, oh well. At least you tried. Learn something from this game, become a better team after those two hours.
