Your George Mason Patriots will be going up against the AP #18 ranked Marquette Golden Eagles. This will be their first true barometer for how the team could perform in March, if they earn the opportunity.
Marquette is coached by Shaka Smart, a former VCU and Texas head coach. Smart has taken his teams to the tournament 11 times, and has a record of 348-172 overall, and 76-30 with his Big East squad.
The Golden Eagles lost two premier players in the offseason, former Patriot Tyler Kolek, and Oso Ighodaro, to the NBA draft. Unfortunately for Mason, it seems like Kam Jones has stepped it up in the absence of Kolek.
Marquette By The Numbers
Marquette is the 16th ranked team on KenPom, with the 15th offense and 29th defense.
Relative to era, Smart has had his teams playing fast during his time at VCU and Marquette, but not so much at Texas.
Last season, they had 69.1 possessions per game, which was 92nd in the country. That’s fast, but below the 70 possession threshold that is generally considered blazing. In their game against Stony Brook, they had 70 possessions each.
During Smart’s time at Marquette, his offenses have been extremely efficient from two, while also taking a lot of threes.
They play fast on defense, forcing a lot of turnovers, while letting up a lot of offensive rebounds. Teams generally shoot a lot of threes against them, and they go in at about an average rate.
Dominating the offensive boards might be the clearest path for Mason to stay in this game.
The numbers portion is a little more based on the past since a one-game sample size that was against KenPom 270 (now 287) Stony Brook is not the best indicator of how they will actually play, metrics wise.
In their game against Stony Brook, they shot 31-37 from two, and 9-31 from three. Future NBA guard Kam Jones (1) went 10-10 from two, and 4-6 from three, scoring 32. If he does that against Mason, it is simply over. 4-6 from three isn’t what Jones will normally do, but he did shoot 40.6% on 6.5 attempts per game last season. Uh oh.
6’5 wing Chase Ross (2) also went crazy, scoring 23 on 7-8 from two and 2-3 from three. He kind of did everything, also adding 8 rebounds, 5 assists, and a steal. Last year, Ross shot 36% from three on about two attempts per game, so he is definitely a threat.
6’8 forward David Joplin (23) shot 35.5% from three on 5.5 attempts last year, so he is also a threat.
6’11 big Ben Gold (12) shot 36% on 3.2 attempts per game from three. Gold only shot 33 twos all season; he is out there to do one thing, shoot.
On the bright side, it seems like their big men did not have such a great game, so Mason might be able to take their victories there. This is the kind of game where you might have to put a KD-Billups guard duo out there and hope that their defense can make up for the lack of spacing. Make that defense hurt Marquette more than it hurts Mason’s offense.
They ended up scoring 102 on 70 possessions, which comes out to 1.46 points per possession. That is a lot, and I really hope that is more from Stony Brook being awful defensively than Marquette being an offensive juggernaut.
It seems as though their rotation is about nine deep, with a major drop-off coming off after the 9th guy down to 4 minutes.
Marquette Scouting Report (First Half vs. Stony Brook)
On offense, the first thing that I noticed was how shifty Kam Jones. Jones is also a relentless driver, who will attack closeouts. If the defense falls asleep, the future NBA guard can go coast-to-coast off a made basket. When Kam drives, if someone helps over, he will not hesitate to kick it out for an open three. If you squint, Jones is a big Jalen Brunson.
David Joplin isn’t too much of a creator, but is a good spacer. Chase Ross is pretty fast with the ball in his hands, and generally seems to be an all-around great scorer.
The Golden Eagles have good spacing on offense, so you cannot cover two guys at once. Along with that, they have good ball movement, so if there is an open man on the perimeter, he will be found.
Marquette will often try to turn normal misses into fast breaks, which can be a problem if guys aren’t alert.
Shaka Smart loves to use elevator screens on inbounds plays, which can get a guy wide open on the perimeter.
On defense, Marquette plays super aggressively. They pressed off the tip, making contact behind halfcourt. The Golden Eagles will double a lot. They’ll double for a second on screens, but will then find their man after the ball-handler feels pressured. Even in a normal half-court, if an off-ball movement brings them close to the ball, Shaka Smart will have his guy double for a bit.
Smart has them playing in some fun looks, sometimes going into a matchup zone (play man in your zone/switch a lot), and they’ll press full-court in both man and zone. Marquette dropped into a true zone, the look where the guys all spread their arms, and Chase Ross got beat backdoor, where he was the forced to foul. When they pressed, they ran a 1-2-2 zone off a missed free throw, and forced Stony Brook into a timeout.
Smart will sometimes have his guards/wings play help defender inside, but sometimes there may be miscommunication that leads to someone getting wide open under the basket if they try to swap spots with their big man.
With their guards/wings inside and big men going out on the perimeter, Marquette is a bit vulnerable to offensive rebounds.
Joplin is a lengthy, instinctive helper. Caedin Hamilton (35) can get lost ball-watching from the paint and is vulnerable, but he is a freshman so that makes sense. Tre Norman (5) pokes at the ball a lot. Kam Jones is a pretty good man defender. Ben Gold (12) seems to be a decent defender inside.
Honestly, Marquette could not really defend Stony Brook early on. They are beatable.
What Does This Mean for Mason?
Mason isn’t going to be able to outscore them, but might be able to win a rock fight. If Mason wins, it will be in the 60s, not the 80s.
This is the type of game that you should not go into expect a win. What you’re looking for here is for Mason to not roll over. You should want the guys in green and gold to look like they belong on the same court as Marquette.
If Mason is to win this game, KD Johnson will have to play like the All-Power 5 talent we know he can be at times. We’re also going to need the team to play like they have four capable point guards and not waste possessions. Things could unravel quickly if the Patriots let the double teams work.
I think Haynes and Emejuru might have an advantage on the offensive side of things in this game, and Marquette’s most impressive inside defender is a 6’8 big wing/small forward.
My prediction for this game is: no comment. Something 70 to something 60. I think that Mason keeps it a game and makes you feel excited for how they could go against the at-large contending A10 teams. I will say, this game feels a lot more winnable than the Tennessee one.
Also, side note, this will be a students-only game for Marquette.
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