By Palmer Johnson
Your George Mason Patriots are hosting the AP 16th ranked Dayton Flyers, who are 21-4 overall, 11-2 in conference play, and are likely going to get an at-large bid in the tournament.
Dayton is the first ranked team to play in Fairfax since the Obi Toppin COVID #4 Flyers came to EagleBank in 2020.
The Flyers are coached by Anthony Grant, who was a starting forward for them in the 80s. Grant has been there since the 2017-18 season, and despite not making any tournaments during his tenure, he had a one-seed caliber team taken by COVID that went 18-0 in conference play, and was the first team out in 2021-22. At his alma mater, their coach has a record of 145-68 record overall and 85-34 in conference play. It’s impressive what Grant has done, as he lost his Preseason All A10 Second-Team point guard in Malachi Smith just minutes into the season. I don’t think he would be my pick, but if he wins conference coach of the year, it’s understandable.
Dayton By The Numbers
On KenPom, Dayton is the 24th ranked team, with the 19th offense and 56th defense.
Grant has his guys playing at a snail race pace, 63.2 possessions per game, 352nd in the country. Despite playing at a very slow rate, Dayton is 0-2 in games with below 60 possessions. To be fair, those games were to the 1st and 46th ranked teams on KenPom in Houston and Northwestern, neutral and away.
DaRon Holmes, the conference’s best player and future NBA contributor, is 2nd on KenPom’s Player of the Year tracker. For reference, the next best player Mason faced was 9th ranked Dalton Knecht, who was 6th when the Patriots went into Knoxville. While is definitely isn’t a strength, he’s hitting 68.1% of his free throws this season, which is high enough that you can’t hack-a-Shaq him unless you really, really have to. But that doesn’t stop teams from fouling him, whether on purpose or by accident, as the junior draws 7.4 fouls per 40 minutes, 12th in the country. This may be a game where Malik Henry gets 20 minutes.
Dayton really takes care of the ball, only turning it over 14.9% of the time, one of the lowest 50 rates in the country. This is super impressive when you consider their offense runs through their big man.
The Flyers’ best trait is their offensive efficiency, having the 12th best eFG% in the country at 56.2, and having the 7th best 3-point percentage at 39%. Not only are they making their threes, but they’re taking a ton of them. Dayton is 33rd in the nation with 44.2% of their shot coming from behind the arc.
Who’s taking those threes?
To make him even more scary, DaRon Holmes is hitting 36.9% of his threes on 2.6 attempts per game. The Atlantic 10 basketball gods have forsaken us. Of course, he’s passing it to other shooters as well, many of which have size. 6’6 Koby Brea is shooting 48.6% from downtown, 8th in the country. 6’7 Nate Santos, who was rivaling Woody Newton’s hot start to the season, is hitting 43% of his, and Kobe Elvis is shooting 36.3%, but is up to 38.9% in conference play.
As you may have guessed with Dayton’s high three-point percentage and take rate, they get a lot of points from three, 37%, which is 31st in the country. Grant’s squad get a very low amount of twos, 43.2%, 353rd in the country. I guess it’s either a Holmes shot near the rim or a three. Moreyball.
The Flyers’ main weakness is their offensive rebounding, where they only get 27.1% of opportunities, 248th in the country. This kind of makes sense when you consider that Santos, their 4, if more of a wing than a forward and likes to sit on the perimeter. If it isn’t going to Holmes or a long rebound, Dayton isn’t getting it.
You can see DaRon Holmes on that chart in the paint. This is obviously way easier said than done, but if you can stop him from getting to the rim, he struggles. The problem with that is if you sell out to stop him from getting inside, they’re red hot from three. I am a bit surprised that the red in the paint isn’t darker.
Similar to Dayton’s offense, they excel in eFG% on the other end, only giving up a 46% rate, 36th best in the country. Also similar, they excel from three, only giving up a 30.8% clip, 38th, which is really good, since opponents take 39.3% of their shots from behind the arc, a decent bit above average. Because of this, opponents end up getting 33.6% of their points from downtown, which is 71st, but if you’re Dayton, you’re ok with that, considering the average three-point attempt against them is only worth .924 points.
The Flyers do a great job at keeping teams off the free throw line at the 4th lowest in the country, which is convenient when your best player is a big man and great rim protector.
The main downsides to Dayton’s defense are their struggles with forcing turnovers and being a slightly below average defensive rebounding team. The struggle with forcing turnovers kind of makes sense for a team that plays so slow, they’re willing to trust their guys to force the offense to take poor shots. The defensive rebounding thing makes sense once again because of Nate Santos being their 4. Nothing against him, it’s just a bit difficult to outrebound a forward as a wing.
Well, that doesn’t look fun. Teams can’t hit their threes, and the floater-range is pretty much the only area that is red. Grant has figured out the shots he’s okay with letting up.
Dayton Scouting Report (First Half vs. VCU)
This is a game Dayton ended up losing.
On the offensive side, Holmes was getting doubled a ton. VCU would do it once he took his first dribble toward the basket, and they were okay with him chilling out past the free throw line. It seemed like Javon Bennett would hang out near the logo, but following Holmes so that he has an easy out if the defense doubles. If their superstar doesn’t have an easy out, there’s a decent chance he turns it over to a guy jumping the pass from the side he wasn’t already surveying.
When the junior big man kept going doubled, he eventually got impatient and forced a couple shots through doubles.
How do you double Holmes?
Mason should be able to help off of Enoch Cheeks, who is willing to take threes, but they’re only going in at a 28.3% rate, and he looks like he would rather do anything else than take that shot. Think of Cheeks like a Jared Billups on offense.
Dayton does have a lineup where Brea comes in for Cheeks, who is a better three-point shooter by 20%, so you can’t help off of him. At that point, the worst shooter is Javon Bennett at 30.2%. You can’t leave him open forever, but if you need help, that’s who you come off of.
If you double off Holmes and they get it to a shooter, they’re taking it. Most of the Flyers are okay with shooting over late closeouts.
Holmes’ gravity is so great that Nate Santos is able to nonchalantly move off-ball and it seems like defenders will be too focused on Holmes and forget about him. All of a sudden, he appears wide open under the basket.
What about the other guys?
Kobe Elvis looks pretty unnatural taking shots off the dribble. That’s not his style of play, but he’s forced to do it sometimes.
Javon Bennett is super tiny, but also extremely fast. Polite might not be a good matchup on him.
Santos is able to take his guy to the rim if he gets a guard switched onto him. The Pitt transfer was scoring relentlessly with his off-ball movement, that was pretty much their entire offense when Holmes wasn’t getting what he wanted and nobody was particularly open for three. He does have a bit of a problem with liking to do jump-passes, meaning if his first read isn’t open, it’s a likely turnover.
Brea is so scary, he’ll be running around off-ball and if he gets an inch of space, he’s taking it.
The offense turns into a strugglefest with Holmes out, nobody else can really create their own shot. It seems like every basket is at least mildly contested. Isaac Jack came in for Holmes, but he doesn’t play too much. In this game, only six players played major minutes.
If Holmes isn’t leading the fast break, Dayton will look to take an open three, otherwise, they wait for it to turn into a half-court setting.
Now, onto defense.
Grant had them playing a lot of man and matchup zone, I didn’t see any true zone looks during the half I watched. There is a lot of switching though, but I guess you can so that when you have guys like Nate Santos and Enoch Cheeks out there.
Holmes will help off his man in the paint if he sees a perimeter guy driving. Look for Hall to drop it off to Kelly if Big Guard gets past his man but Holmes slides over. Not only does Holmes help in the paint, but occasionally he will go out on the perimeter to guard ball-screens, leaving the paint manned by Nate Santos, or someone smaller.
The Flyers are totally ok with giving up hook shots outside of the restricted area. That might be something to monitor with Amari Kelly.
Cheeks loves to double off his man when he sees he is in the blind spot of the ball-handler. Watch out for that with the dribble-drives.
What Does This Mean for Mason?
I think Mason should be helping off of Enoch Cheeks all night, if he makes a three or two, so be it, but I’d rather see an open Cheeks three than DaRon Holmes one-on-one with the ball near the basket.
If Skinn can get Okojie isolated onto Javon Bennett, he should be able to use his size to at least draw a ton of help and create for others.
Prediction: Mason wins 61-56. I think the only way Mason wins is if they can double Holmes and keep him away from the basket, and the open shooters he passes to aren’t hitting their threes. You HAVE to dominate the Holmes-less minutes. For Mason to win, everything has to go right, and they need a little bit of luck. You can’t have a Koby Brea spell where he gets back-to-back threes, you can’t have Kobe Elvis get hot.
This would be a signature win for Skinn, clearly the best of his young coaching career.
It’s unfortunate this game is on a Wednesday night, but hopefully students will still be able to come. Remember, this is Dayton, so there will be a big Flyer presence. Don’t let them outnumber Mason Nation.
qn541l