Mason Looks to Break a Losing Skid vs. Loyola Chicago

By
Joseph Szymanski
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416
5203

By Palmer Johnson

Your George Mason Patriots are looking to break a losing skid with a home game against the 15-7 and 7-2 Loyola Chicago Ramblers.

The Ramblers are coached by 32-year-old Drew Valentine, who’s in his third season as head coach, but had been an assistant there since 2017. Valentine has a 50-36 record, and his team made the NCAA Tournament in his first year.

Loyola Chicago By the Numbers

Loyola Chicago is the 115th ranked team on KenPom, with 219th offense and the 47th ranked defense. Their 219th ranked offense puts them at second to last in the A10, but only based on conference play, they are 10th in offensive efficiency.

Valentine has had his guys playing at a pretty fast pace, 68.7 possessions per game, 116th in the country, but since the start of conference play, they have had the highest pace in the A10 at 70.5, outpacing GW by .1 possessions per game.

Loyola Chicago has put together a pretty old team, with the average playing having 2.61 years of D1 experience, 42nd most in the country. It’s worth noting that this would classify Philip Alston as a sophomore, but he played two seasons, plus an empty COVID year, at D2 California University of Pennsylvania (it’s in Pennsylvania).

Valentine loves to play his depth, with the bench getting 36.9% of minutes, 57th in the country. Only Braden Norris and Des Watson play over 50% of minutes, which is odd because they play 86.1% and 79.8%, so those two slots in the lineup pretty much always stay the same while the other three spots are a revolving door all game. This has somewhat changed in conference play, as Alston’s and Jayden Dawson’s minutes have increased by a decent bit, to the point where they’re playing somewhat normal amounts of minutes for starters.

There’s a chance LoyChi will be without wing Jayden Dawson, who’s started every game he’s been available for in conference play, averaging 11.9 points on 46.3% from the field and 39.5% from three. Dawson missed their previous two games with an ankle injury, but this On3 guy’s tweet presumably about a press conference after their latest game seems to say he has a decent chance to play.

On offense, the Ramblers shoot pretty efficiently, with an eFG% of 52.5, 95th­ in the nation, hitting 35.1% of their shots from three, 115th, and 52.3% from two, 96th. They shoot pretty well, why is their offense so bad?

LoyChi struggles with both turnovers and offensive rebounding. They turn it over on 19.3% of possessions, 293rd in the country, and only get offensive boards on 24.6% of their misses, 314th. In conference play, they have a turnover percentage of 19.7, which is the highest in the A10.

So there’s a decent chance they don’t get to shoot, but if they manage to get a shot, there’s a decent chance it goes in. If they miss, they aren’t getting the rebound.

63.1% of Loyola’s made shots are assisted, which is ninth in the country. I haven’t studied their offense yet, but that tells me there are a lot of catch-and-shoot threes, as 40.2% of their shot attempts are from beyond the arc, 103rd in the country.

LoyChi gets 33.2% of their points from out there, which is 98th. The thing is, since conference play has started, their point distribution has shifted a by a couple percentage points each to free throws and twos, to the point where compared to the rest of the conference, they don’t get many points from three, so they probably made some sort of adjustments.

The Ramblers have some shooters, with Des Watson, Sheldon Edwards, Jayden Dawson, and Braden Norris all shooting 40% or higher from three. Watson is the biggest surprise, as he shot 29.3% from three last season at Davidson. It’s on high enough volume, 99 attempts, that we have to assume it is real.

Wow, they’re really good in the paint, both corners, and the left wing, but are atrocious everywhere else, especially in the mid-range. Those mid-range dots are pretty small, so I bet they only take those when the shot clock is super low. Moreyball?

The go-to guy on offense is Philip Alston, who has regressed a bit. He was injured a bit early in the season, missing four games. His conference play has been kind of rough, as his offensive rating has only been above 100 in one A10 game. This isn’t exclusive to conference play, as he has the second lowest offensive rating among players who play real minutes for the Ramblers. Alston’s shooting from beyond the arc has regressed by an unbelievable, going from 40% (28-70) to 17.8% (8-45). Both are decent enough volume that the wild change in percentage can’t really be explained. With that being said, the 6’6 forward is averaging 12.6 points and 4.1 rebounds on 46.2% shooting from the field.

On defense, Loyola Chicago is much better. They give up a 46.1% eFG, 27th in the country, and allow the 2nd lowest FG% from two in the nation at 42.3%. The Ramblers are better than Mason at that, which is surprising. They do foul a little bit, with opponents shooting 33.9 free throws per 100 shots, 214th lowest.

Unfortunately for them, that two-point defense comes with the cost of giving up some threes, as opponents are shooting 35.2% from beyond the arc, 268th in the country.

LoyChi finishes possessions. They only allow an offensive rebound on 25.5% of chances, 41st in the country.

The Ramblers have my favorite non-Mason A10 player in freshman big man Miles Rubin. Rubin doesn’t do much besides block shots and dunk, but he’s very good at those two things. The freshman out of Chicago is super athletic and is 2nd in the country in block rate at 13.7%.

As you’d expect because of Rubin, Loyola Chicago as a whole has a pretty high block rate at 13.3%, which is 28th.

That’s a whole lot of blue, especially in the paint. It’s surprising that they can defend inside so well while also not giving up much from the corners. Straight-on and right wing threes seem to be the only weaknesses of the defense. This might be a rough game.

Opponents get a decent bit of their points from three and from the line, with 32.5% and 20.6% coming from there, which is 106th and 94th respectively.

Loyola Chicago Scouting Report (First Half vs. VCU)

For the Ramblers’ offense, there are lots of ball-screens and quick ball movement. There isn’t any wasted time, the point guard isn’t sitting there with the ball in his hands waiting for the play to develop, he is part of the play.

I may have been wrong about them playing Moreyball, as Des Watson took what looked to be a designed mid-range coming off a ball-screen with ten seconds left on the shot clock. Watson loves this shot, but I imagine the numbers love it in their opponent’s favor.

Greg Dolan, a guard, plays like he studied Bob Cousy film.

Braden Norris is such a great pure point guard, he facilitates the offense, and lets others play to their strengths. He doesn’t take too many shots, but when he does, they go in. After watching him, I can see why he plays so many minutes.

Rubin can be left open on the perimeter, but is a premier putback threat. He’s very good at converting them into baskets.

Dame Adelekun is super crafty in the post. If you leave him one-on-one, he will eventually beat you.

Everyone is unselfish in the fast break for Loyola. A guy with an ok lane to the basket will make a great pass to a guy with an open one. This translates into their half-court offense as well, as it seems like the extra pass is always made.

On the defensive end, LoyChi wants you to take two-point jump shots, especially if they can somehow get you shooting it off the dribble. On offense, they don’t take many twos from beyond the paint. That isn’t a coincidence. They’ve seen the points per shot data.

Valentine’s defensive philosophy seems to be about forcing bad shots, and hoping they miss, which works a decent amount of the time. Unfortunately for him, the game I watched was against VCU with Bamisile in one of his “on” games. Loyola Chicago couldn’t do anything to stop him. VCU was held scoreless for six minutes, but before and after that drought, it was a bunch of Bamisile predetermining he was going to shoot the ball and it happened to go in.

The Ramblers have active hands everywhere. If the offense makes a mistake, there is a high chance that the pass will get deflected.

Something I noticed that seemed pretty cool is that if Loyola sees the chance to force a moving screen, they will sprint into it. This is something that Amari Kelly will need to watch out for, as this could get him out of the game quick.

When Loyola is guarding ball-screens, they like to force the ball-handler to the baseline.

Rubin is willing to leave the paint to cover his man on the perimeter, but he will sprint back to the basket the second anyone moves toward it. Miles is a good defender, but is susceptible to pump fakes since he’s looking for the block so much. That’s what freshmen do. With what seemed like VCU’s final possession in the first half, Rubin got isolated onto Bairstow. When he drove to the rim, the freshman stayed right on him and blocked his shot into the backboard right out of his hand. If Rubin is switched onto a wing, he can handle it.

Jayden Dawson seems like a pesky on-ball defender.

Adelekun predicted the move Bairstow would do perfectly, forced a travel. Watch out for Keyshawn Hall’s spin move being completed nullified.

What Does This Mean for Mason?

Amari Kelly is going to have to emphasize stopping before he makes contact with the defender on his screens, as they will probably try to burst into him if he’s just a little late.

If Rubin is too athletic for Kelly, this could be a game where we see a lot of Malik Henry, if he’s healthy.

Loyola Chicago seems like a team who will have scouted Keyshawn Hall’s spin move. If they’re stopping it and forcing turnovers or putting him in bad situations, I hope Hall and the staff can adjust quickly and try something else. I think the staff might give Hall a little bit more responsibility on offense this game to help people forget about his mistake in the UMass game.

It really worried me that Loyola Chicago’s defense looked so good even with Bamisile hitting contested threes.

Prediction: Mason wins 61-56. I think this will be somewhat of a rock fight. Maybe not Mason-VCU level rock fight, but definitely below one point per possession.

This game is a must-win for Mason. It’s been a while since the last home game, show up and show out.

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