By Palmer Johnson
Coming off back-to-back home wins against St. Bonaventure and Rhode Island, Mason looks to keep the momentum going on the road against a volatile Saint Joseph’s team. St. Joe’s is 13-7 overall and 3-4 in the conference, but they were in the at-large conversation before losing their conference opener to Rhode Island.
The Hawks are coached by Billy Lange, who previously coached at Navy but has been in Philly since the 2019-20 season and has accumulated a 51-84 record. Under Lange, Joe’s has never finished above .500 overall or in conference play, but has had steady improvement every season. This is clearly his best team so far.
Saint Joseph’s by the Numbers
The Hawks are the 96th ranked team on KemPom, close to Mason’s 98, having the 88th offense and 116th defense.
Billy Lange has the Hawks playing at a pretty fast pace, 68.4 possessions per game. Something I see here is that their possession length on offense is 1.3 seconds shorter than their possession length on defense. I think this is the widest gap I have seen.
Saint Joseph’s has a pretty good offense. They have an eFG% of 54.1, 44th in the country, make 37.1% of their threes, 36th, and make 52.8% of their twos, 88th. They shoot efficiently, turn the ball over at a below average (good) rate, and rebound the ball on this end on a little bit above average.
Why is their offense only good, and not elite? Because Joe’s only gets 27.7 free throws per 100 shots, 304th in the country.
Erik Reynolds headlines the St. Joe’s offense, scoring 17.9 on 44.4% from the field and 41.8% from three while dishing out 2.8 assists per game. His volume has gone down a bit since last season due to there being more pieces around him, but he increased his efficiency by a decent margin. Reynolds, probably a future NBA player, plays 83.1% of minutes and shoots 25.1% of the shots when he’s on the floor. He’s already made 66 threes this season, that is nuts and would be the record at many schools.
The Hawks have a lot of shooters, with Reynolds and freshman Xzayvier Brown shooting 41.8 and 45.3% from three, along with Christ Essandoko and Cameron Brown shooting 37.5% and 38.9%.
Xzayvier Brown has been a revelation, as the true freshman has, barring injury or major regression, locked in his spot on the All-Rookie team. He’s averaging 11.2 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 3.1 assists on 48.1% from the field and 45.3% from beyond the arc.
Christ Essandoko, at 7’0 and 285 pounds, was the wildcard of the A10 this offseason, with some people projecting him to be an All-A10 First Team guy as a redshirt freshman. He’s shown flashes, like his 21 point outing against Duquesne, but has been inconsistent overall, proven by him scoring 5 the following game.
The left side of the paint and corner seem like they could be a problem, along with the right wing. Mason is going to need to use their speed and length to make sure they can close out on shooters.
Saint Joe’s scores from three. 47.4% of their shots are threes, 18th in the country, and 41% of their points come from beyond the arc, 7th in the country. They are ranked in the 300s when it comes to percentage of points coming from twos and free throws.
On the other end, a lot of their strengths line up with their strengths on offense. Joe’s gives up an eFG% of 47.2, 50th in the nation, opponents shoot 31.6% from behind the arc, 78th, and they only shoot 47% from two, 62nd in the country.
Lange might be having them foul a ton of big men inside, as their opponents are only shooting 67.9% from the line, 35th lowest in the nation.
Joe’s giving up a high percentage from DEEP threes is really funny to me. Those hexagons are too big and red. I’m assuming the guy who covers the right corner is a better help defender than the guy who covers the left. Their paint defense is a lot better than what you expect from St. Joe’s and Billy Lange teams.
Saint Joseph’s opponents also get their points from three. Opponents shoot 45.8% of their shots from behind the arc, 11th, with 37.7% of their points coming from there, also 11th in the nation.
Saint Joseph’s Scouting Report (First Half vs. Duquesne)
On offense, Christ Essandoko will take threes. He’s a big dude who can dominate defenders in the post on occasion. The redshirt freshman does have trouble improvising when his Plan A doesn’t work. If Essandoko gets too deep in the paint but is locked up, he will take a bad shot rather than passing it out.
Xzayvier Brown had an awesome take to the rim. He got around and past two defenders, and then missed a pretty tough layup. It was impressive that he got so open. Brown dove into the stands to save a ball, then hit a three on the other end. This dude does not play like a freshman.
Erik Reynolds is super bursty and can take off at a moment’s notice. Whenever he would get a rebound, he would try to turn it into a fast break. Reynolds won the race a couple times. The future NBA player can also take and make moving threes, which is scary. Not only can he shoot, but he can be both the pick and roller in a two-man game, which is not something you see from a lot of guards. On top of all that, Reynolds is willing to back down smaller defenders in the post.
Out of a dead ball, the Hawks tried an inbound alley-oop to freshman forward Shawn Simmons, Simmons is athletic, and his dunks are energetic. Mason can’t let him get a momentum-shifting slam to get the crowd into the game.
On defense, they played pretty normal man defense in the half-court. When Duquesne had to go full court, Joe’s would send a guard to softly guard the guy taking it up the floor.
Saint Joe’s will give up a decent amount of threes since they go under screens a decent bit. Duquesne’s Tre Clark was giving them work by shooting it every time they went under on him.
When a defender’s man is in the corner, he will have one foot in the paint so he can help inside. If Joe’s opponent can take and make a three before the defender can close out to the corner, so be it.
It seems like the Hawks would rather foul a fast break ballhandler than give them a pretty good look from two.
Lynn Greer lost the guy he was defending as the shooter slowly drifted away from him and then got a catch and shoot three. A bit later, Cam Brown lost his man during an inbound play and let up an open three. Hopefully Mason can take advantage of those mental mistakes. X. Brown is a very aggressive defender, he will jump passing lanes and get lots of deflections.
Rasheer Fleming is a great help defender.
I was not able to figure out why there was such a difference between Joe’s offensive and defensive possession lengths.
What Does This Mean for Mason?
Mason is going to have to make sure Essandoko can’t get some free trailing threes.
I think this could be a game where Baraka Okojie gets extended, extended minutes so he can help cover Erik Reynolds. I like Polite but I don’t think him vs. Reynolds is a favorable matchup for him.
Darius Maddox is going to need to be able to move off the ball for this game. If he can make their guards and wings chase him around while also hitting shots, that would greatly help Mason out.
Amari Kelly is going to have his hands full with Christ Essandoko, as he is bigger and taller. If Essandoko is “on” for this game, it could be a long night.
Keyshawn Hall could have a tough matchup on offense going against Rasheer Fleming, as he is a pretty good one-on-one defender, but also a great help defender. I hope if it isn’t working early, he is able to improvise and pass out rather than take bad, contested shots.
I’m going to be honest, if this game goes wrong, it could be more of a blowout than the Tennessee game. They shoot so many threes and Mason struggled the last time they faced a fast-paced team. Hopefully the staff has learned from the GW game.
Prediction: Mason wins 75-72 in a thriller. Joe’s threes are going in at a pedestrian pace and it doesn’t feel like a gamechanger.
This would be a huge win, like any game on the road, but St. Joe’s and Mason could definitely be within a game of each other in the standings at the end of the season, with this game being the difference.
