By Palmer Johnson
Your George Mason Patriots are playing their homecoming game against the 9-10 and 3-3 Rhode Island Rams.
The Rams are coached by Archie Miller, who’s in his second season and coached at Indiana and Dayton previously.
Rhode Island got out to a surprisingly strong start, going 3-0 against decent teams in St. Joe’s, Davidson, and UMass, but then got blown out in back-to-back games against St. Bonaventure and Dayton on the road.
The Rams were thought to be the clear favorite for last place coming into conference play, but they have a 2 game lead over last as of now.
Rhody has a guy with an awesome name, Always Wright.
Zek Montgomery, one of their starting wings, was out against Fordham on Wednesday with a back injury and it is to be determined whether he will play against Mason or not.
Rhode Island by the Numbers
Rhode Island is the 192nd ranked team on KenPom, having the 142nd ranked offense and 271st ranked defense.
This is almost entirely a new team, as Rhody only had 8.2% minute continuity between this season and last season, 347th in the country.
Archie Miller has his guys playing at about an average pace, getting 68.2 possessions per game.
Based only on conference play, Rhody has the worst defense in the A10 with a defensive rating of 121.8. This is why people thought they were going to clearly be the last place team, as their defense was just flat out awful in the non-conference portion.
Why is their defense so bad? Let’s find out.
Long story short, Rhody doesn’t force misses nor do they force turnovers. The Rams give up a 51.9% eFG, 252nd in the country while also only having turnovers occur 13.1% of the time, 357th. That is not a recipe for success.
Rhode Island’s opponents are also shooting 36.8% from three, 327th in the country. This is where they are giving up a decent amount of points, as their opponents are scoring 33.5% of their points from behind the arc, 80th in the country.
In conference play, Rhody is last (worst) in defensive eFG, turnover, 2-point, block, and steal percentage. They are second to last in 3-point percentage. That’s bad.
It seems like whoever guards the right corner likes to stick closer to it and is less willing to help inside, while it’s the exact opposite on the other side.
At least it gets a little better on offense, as Rhode Island is shooting 35.9% from three, 74th in the country, 51.7% from two, 125th, giving them an eFG of 52.4%, 94th. They also take a ton of free throws, shooting 38.4 attempts per 100 shots. Unfortunately, the Rams are one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the country, only hitting 62.6% of their tries, which puts them at 354th in the country.
Rhody shoots pretty well, but their offense isn’t elite. This is because they have a very high turnover rate of 19.7%, 303rd in the nation.
The Rams’ primary shot taker is guard/wing Jaden House, who’s having a career year efficiency-wise. House is taking 27.3% of the shots when he is on the floor, averaging 15.3 points on career highs in both FG% and 3-point % at 47.5% and 37.5%.
Besides House, the only plus shooters they have are Cam Estevez, at 43.1%, and David Green, 44.4%, although since he’s only played in six games, he only has 18 attempts. Green is a career 34.5% shooter, so his real percentage is probably somewhere between those two numbers.
I’m guessing their big men are right-handed. They’re pretty good in the corners and the right side of the paint, but not very good anywhere else.
Rhode Island Scouting Report (First Half vs. Davidson)
On offense, Rhody likes to get their big men on the perimeter to open up the paint. Davidson was covering David Fuchs, who is now 2-10 on the season from three, on the perimeter so Rhody had a couple easy baskets inside.
Speaking of Fuchs, they are very willing to make risky entry passes over the defense if it means he can get the ball inside.
Rhode Island likes to take the first three available on a decent amount of possession. Luis Kortright, a 33% shooter, took and made a contested three pretty early into the shot clock. As soon as they see a somewhat good three, they take it. Rhody doesn’t pass up good shots for great shots, probably because they don’t think the great shot is coming.
Estevez, their best shooter, is able to hit from the NBA line. Jaden House has a spin move he likes to go to, but Davidson had it figured out and he got no separation whatsoever on it. I don’t think he went back to it after it didn’t work on his first two attempts. Jeremy Foumena, a 6’11 forward, is super athletic and an active lob threat.
Kortright and House can both create their own shots to some degree.
When Davidson went into a full-court 2-1-2 press, they instantly got a steal. After the first possession, Rhode Island didn’t have a tough time getting it across.
Here’s Rhody’s problem. They’ll work super hard for their basket and then watch their opponent get a free backdoor cut layup.
On defense, Davidson was getting a lot of open threes since the Rams were going under screens, but Davidson was missing from beyond the arc early on so they kept doing it.
When is it a one-on-one game, Rhody defends pretty well, but when they have to defend as a team, it gets pretty rough. They’re super vulnerable to their help defenders getting sealed off by the guy they’re supposed to be defending. Miscommunication leads to Rhode Island losing guys on the perimeter much more often than you’d like.
The Rams were also losing rebounds on Davidson’s free throws way too often.
I don’t believe Rhody pressed or played a traditional zone defense in the half I watched; I don’t think Archie trusts his guys to do that.
What does this mean for Mason?
I think this will be one of those games where Darius Maddox is wide open for three on 1 in 5 possessions because they somehow keep losing him.
This could be a game where Woody Newton gets back on track from three. Rhody will need help inside to contain Keyshawn Hall and Amari Kelly, they’ll probably leave Woody open and dare him to shoot it. Once he sees the ball go in the basket, he won’t return to being the 60% shooter, but let’s hope for 35%.
I don’t think there’s anyone who has a major advantage over a Mason defender on Rhody. A combination of Billups, Maddox, and Okojie should be able to shut down their somewhat dangerous trio of House, Kortright, and Estevez.
Someone who could be a matchup to watch out for is Brandon Weston vs. Keyshawn Hall with Zek Montgomery possibly out, at least limited. Fun fact about Weston, during his redshirt freshman season at Seton Hall, he averaged 40 billion fouls per 40 minutes.
Prediction: Mason wins 80-65. Rhody scores a decent bit but Mason’s offense is relentless. Jared Billups takes advantage of bad team defense and gets a handful of exciting backdoor cut slams.
Get excited, Mason Nation. It’s homecoming! I want to see those attendance numbers high and attendees into the game.
