By Palmer Johnson
Your 6-1 George Mason Patriots will be taking on the 3-3 Toledo Rockets out of the MAC. This will be Mason’s first true road game of the season.
Toledo is coached by Tod Kowalczyk, who’s been the head guy there since the 2010-11 season. The Rockets lost their star guard and MAC Player of the Year, Rayj Dennis, over the offseason to Baylor.
I watched the first half of Toledo’s game against Wright State, here’s what I saw.
Toledo Scouting Report (Wright State 1st Half)
On offense, a play they ran pretty often was a guard would get the ball, try to drive it inside, and if he didn’t get what he wanted, he would kick it out, and then that guy would either shoot if he’s open, or take his turn driving. They repeat this for the entire possession, and it did not seem to work too well.
Wright State went into a zone for three possessions and Toledo hit two threes. It seems like Toledo isn’t crazy talented from three, they just take extremely high-quality shots.
One of their wings, Raheim Moss, is very fast. He flew past everyone in transition and could be a monster cutter if the defense falls asleep.
On the defensive end, Toledo was denying the ball inside by having a guy on both sides two-thirds up the paint, which explains why opponents shoot such high percentage from two. You probably won’t be able to get the ball inside, but if you do, the defenders are in a tough position to try to defend you, and the offense is in a great position to score.
Wright State’s big men were somewhat bullying their guys in the post. If they got a true 1 on 1 post up, Toledo was having a super tough time stopping it. This could be one of those games where Amari Kelly quietly goes 5-7 from the field.
The Rockets’ defense is super double-heavy, but they will stop for a second. It seems like they double the ballhandler when the offense sets screens, so if you can get the ball to the screener, someone will be open. This is another explanation for why they give up such a high percentage of twos.
At some points, they would get into a full-court zone, and were causing some trouble with it. Hopefully Mason’s offense practicing against a press will help them today. I hope Tre Wood is available today, Mason could need to run a two PG lineup often like they did against Cornell.
Toledo By The Numbers
The Rockets are the 112th ranked team on KenPom, compared to Mason’s 108. They have the 57th ranked offense and 217th defense.
Toledo has somewhat of an average pace on offense, but a very fast pace on defense. I guess opponents are either scoring or turning it over early.
On offense, Mason’s opponent is shooting a blazing 40.4% from three, which is 14th, but only 24.4% of their shots are threes, which is bottom 15. This is pretty odd since this is the lowest their 3-point attempt rate has been by a decent bit since Kowalczyk took over. They still shoot pretty well from two at 52.2%, with 59% of their points coming from twos; that’s 40th in the country. If Mason can shut them down from two like they have with a lot of their opponents this season, the Patriots will be in great shape.
Toledo is hot from three pretty much everywhere except that one spot, but none of those hexagons are too big. They take their threes from wherever they end up open.
On defense, the team from Ohio is very good at forcing turnovers, with their defense producing a turnover on 23.5% of possessions, 14th in the country. They are 6th at non-steal turnover percentage, and their defensive possessions are short, meaning they aren’t shot clock violations. Wright State was chucking it out of bounds a bit, but this is kind of odd. I’m thinking this is a fluke since between 2015 and 2023, they only finished inside the top 200 once in defensive turnover percentage.
Toledo is awful at two-point defense, as their opponents are shooting 60.6% from two, which is bottom 10 in D1. 60.8% of their opponents’ points are coming from inside the arc, putting them at 13th most in the country. On top of that, they are bottom 20 in defensive effective FG% (threes are weighted).
You can pretty much see where the Toledo defenders stand in their zone. If you get it inside, you score. They defend the corners pretty well.
What does this mean for Mason?
This seems pretty obvious, but if Mason can simply not turn the ball over, they will win. Of course, it’s more complicated than that. Can they get the ball inside? Will Toledo’s aggressive defense stop them from getting the shots they want?
I think Ronny Polite will have a safe day, I’m hoping that the staff has been hammering safety with the ball in his head all week. If he can play mistake-free basketball, it will be a Ronald Polite game.
This game will be interesting to see how Okojie does against this odd defense. He either won’t be able to get inside at all or gets fouled 16 times today.
Prediction: Mason wins 71-65. Mason moves onto 7-1 and looks forward to their matchup against the SEC powerhouse Tennessee. Ronny Polite scores an efficient 20, has two or less turnovers. There’s a chance Keyshawn Hall could view this as a homecoming game, as it is probably the closest to his hometown, Cleveland, Mason will play this season. Pencil him in for 20 and 10.
