With the non-conference schedule in the rear-view mirror for the Atlantic 10, let break down all 14 women’s programs and how they have fared thus far.
Unlike in years past, there has yet to be a team that has set itself apart from the rest of the field, like VCU did last season. Before we get into any formal analysis of the 14 teams, lets look at the overall standings:
- Duquesne (10-3)
- UMass (10-3)
- Fordham (8-5)
- Saint Louis (8-5)
- Rhode Island (7-5)
- Davidson (7-6)
- Saint Joseph’s (6-6)
- Dayton (7-7)
- Richmond (7-7)
- George Mason (6-7)
- George Washington (6-7)
- La Salle (6-7)
- VCU (5-8)
- St. Bonaventure (3-10)
I also want to throw in the current A-10 RPI rankings just to add a little context before jumping into the power rankings:
A-10 Conference RPI Rankings (as of December 31)
- #50 Saint Louis
- #87 Duquesne
- #97 Richmond
- #104 George Washington
- #128 Fordham
- #129 Dayton
- #135 Saint Joseph’s
- #147 Davidson
- #153 UMass
- #181 Rhode Island
- #184 La Salle
- #198 George Mason
- #209 VCU
- #275 St. Bonaventure
A-10 Power Rankings
1. Duquesne (10-3)
The Dukes look like they may be the best team in the Atlantic 10 right now. Maybe. I felt as though I had no other choice but to rank Duquesne first here, especially given their ten-game winning streak before their loss at Oklahoma State. Duquesne returns a strong core from last year, lead by redshirt-junior Laia Sole and junior guard Libby Bazelak, both average 13 points per game and combine to average nearly 11 rebounds per game.
Duquesne has scored at least 72 points in every game they have played this season, until their 84-41 loss at Oklahoma State. Despite that loss, the Dukes are still top-40 in the nation in scoring, and putting points on the board will go a long way in a conference that has several teams who have struggled at times to put the ball in the basket. This will be their key to success this season.
The Dukes kick off conference play on Saturday January 4 against UMass, the only other team in the A-10 to reach 10 wins in non-conference play. Talk about must-see TV!
Best win: at Pitt, 81-62
Worst loss: Kent State, 77-75
2. Fordham (8-5)
The Rams move up into second place in these rankings, thanks in large part to their six-game winning streak to close on non-conference play. Fordham certainly challenged themselves in the first couple months of the season, scheduling Notre Dame, Penn State, Arkansas, Houston and Villanova. That said, their best win of the season came on the road at Charlotte, winning going away 76-51. The 49ers are 9-2, are more importantly, are #52 in the RPI rankings. In addition, Fordham closed out Houston in their non-conference finale, winning 63-54. Fordham’s record may not be stellar, but it’s hard to count-out the defending Atlantic 10 Champions.
Fordham will open A-10 play on January 4 at home against St. Bonaventure.
Best win: at Charlotte, 76-51
Worst loss: at Columbia, 70-51
3. UMass (10-3)
It’s hard to ignore what the Minutewomen have done thus far this season. They are the only other team to have reached 10-wins in non-conference play, and closed out December on a seven-game winning streak. What’s keeping UMass out of the top-two in this rankings is their lack of a signature win. Holy Cross is their best win based on RPI rankings, with the Crusaders ranked #110. Iona is their only other top-200 win, with the Gales ranked #190. RealtimeRPI.com ranks UMass’ strength of schedule 291st in Division I this season, which makes it quite difficult to gauge how good this team truly is. That said, UMass will open A-10 play at Duquesne, and if the Minutewomen can open conference play with a win in Pittsburgh, then it would be time to real start taking UMass seriously.
Best win: Holy Cross, 75-72
Worst loss: Merrimack, 79-64
4. Saint Louis (8-5)
I had planed initially to rank the Billikens second or third in this rankings, and putting SLU fourth is not a knock against this team at all. Saint Louis had a strong non-conference showing, with wins over Cincinnati, UT-Martin, and a gutsy win at Indiana State to close out non-conference play. Saint Louis is a very interesting team to me, in that, they are a team right on the cusp of making some noise in the Atlantic 10 once again.
I think there are some very nice pieces on the roster, including sophomore Ciaja Harbison who leads the Billikens with 15.2 points per game, and has scored at least 19 points in five of her last six games. Freshman Rachel Kent has also been a nice addition, averaging 10.2 points per game. In addition, Saint Louis has three different players who average at least 7.5 rebounds per game. That’s going to be a tremendous help come March.
Saint Louis opens conference play on Saturday against and up-and-coming Davidson team, in what should be a very good litmus test for both teams.
Best win: at Cincinnati, 60-50
Worst loss: at Missouri, 83-58
5. Dayton (7-7)
Basically, spots five through 13 are anyone’s guess. All these teams have shown some promise at times, and some real weaknesses at other times. Dayton takes the #5 spot partially because they are arguably the most battle-tested team in the Atlantic 10. The Flyers have faced #1 UConn AND #4 South Carolina this season, as well as Gonzaga, Auburn, Wake Forest, Central Michigan and Buffalo. Granted, Dayton went 0-7 in those games, but that’s all the loses they have. In other words, Dayton beat everyone they were supposed to beat. If you take out the UConn and South Carolina games, Dayton played everyone else just about even, taking both Auburn and CMU to OT.
I place the Flyers here, partially as a vote of confidence, because I know how dangerous Dayton can become in conference play. They have not reached their full potential yet, and they have yet to play their best basketball yet: that’s not a bad thing. That said, they closed out non-conference play with two impressive showings, against both East Carolina and Coppin State. The ceiling for this team is very high, I’m very curious to see how Dayton fares in A-10 play, especially given Dayton has played in the NCAA Tournament eight of the last 10 years.
The Flyers kick off conference play at La Salle on Saturday before hosting George Mason on January 8.
Best win: East Carolina, 94-68.
Worst loss: vs. Wake Forest (in Florida), 78-59.
6. Davidson (7-6)
Davidson to me is a very interesting team, and I don’t know quite where to place them. True, they lost their last three games of their non-conference schedule, but to three very strong opponents in Columbia, Charlotte and Florida. Two of those three were on the road, and the average margin of defeat for the Wildcats in those games was just five points. Two of Davidson’s other three loses come on the road at ACC-teams Duke and Virginia Tech, which hardly are bad loses. Drexel is their sixth loss, but the Dragons are #72 in the RPI, and that was just the second game of the season.
In fact, the worst loss Davidson has based on RPI ranking is #169 Florida, a game which the ‘Cats took down to the wire. There truly isn’t a “bad loss” on their résumé. That said, they don’t really have a “good win” either. Their best wins based on RPI ranking is Georgetown at #234 and UMKC at #246. So how do you rank a team without a good win or a bad loss? Just chuck ’em somewhere in the middle.
7. Rhode Island (7-5)
For the first time since 2015, Rhode Island finished their non-conference schedule with a winning record. That said, URI only had two wins over teams ranked in the top-200 of the RPI, with #110 Holy Cross and #156 Robert Morris. That said, the Rams only have one loss to a team outside of the top-150 in the RPI, #175 Quinnipiac. URI lost three of their last four games of the non-conference schedule, but the win in that span was their second-best of the season. Directly before that stretch of schedule, Rhody won four consecutive games. Go figure. URI gets placed squarely in the middle of the pack, because I honestly don’t know what to make of them. They certainly will sneak up on some teams in conference play, but can they finish in the top-eight and earn a home game in the A-10 First Round? Only time will tell.
Rhode Island opens conference play on Saturday against VCU.
Best win: Holy Cross, 73-58
Worst loss: at Quinnipiac, 75-63
8. George Mason (6-7)
I have covered this team all season long. I have been to almost every game. I do not know what to make of this team still. Mason has the reigning Atlantic 10 player of the year in Nicole Cardaño-Hillary, and a strong senior core in Jacy Bolton, Alexsis Grate and Sarah Kaminski. This is team that went on the road and knocked off Penn State, and the team that let a very winable game against UMKC slip right through their fingers. They are frustratingly inconsistent, and have remarkably similar to George Washington’s issues of scoring the basketball. The difference is, George Mason has a generational talent at point-guard, and one of the top three-point shooters in program history at shooting-guard, but they just haven’t been able to get it done.
With that said, I have tremendous confidence they will get it together. George Mason really put it together down the stretch last year, and won some big games, including Revolutionary Rival GW, Saint Joseph’s and a buzzer-beater to knock off Dayton. This team just needs to find an identity, and I fully believe they will. They kick off their A-10 campaign against rival GW and then travel to face Dayton, and based off their results against those teams from last year, you gotta feel confident heading into those games. Not to mention, Mason has gotta be feeling good after their come from behind win at SMU, where the Patriots trailed by 9 with 1:32 left and came back and won on a Camarie Gatling bucket with 13 seconds left.
Best win: at Penn State, 78-68
Worst loss: UMKC, 64-58
9. George Washington (6-7)
The Colonials have arguably been one of the most inconsistent teams in America this year. In some games this year, GW has looked like a pretty strong team, as they did when the went on the road and won at Memphis. On other days, they have looked downright bad, such as their first half at Lehigh, the second half against JMU, and both the Maryland and Minnesota games.
I say this (as a disclaimer), as someone who has grown up following GW basketball, and I have watched GW more than any other A-10 team this year- other than George Mason obviously. This team has such a high ceiling but such a low floor. The pieces just have not come together yet for Jennifer Rizzotti’s group. They are not as athletic as they have been in years past, and it’s showing. Their offense is, once again, one of the worst in the nation, averaging around 55 points per game. They are going to have to find an identity to find success in the A-10 this season.
GW opens conference play with a short trip to Fairfax to take on Mason on Saturday.
Best win: at Memphis, 64-63
Worst loss: at Lehigh, 59-53
10. Richmond (7-7)
Despite the Spiders being ranked the third-highest of any A-10 team in the RPI, Richmond finds themselves all the way down at 10th in these rankings. After starting the season 5-1, Richmond closed out non-conference play by losing six of their last nine games. It’s not usually a great sign when your best win of the season came on opening night, but that is the case here with UR. They did win their final game of December against Norfolk State to pull to .500 heading to A-10 play, but I just have a gut feeling this team is going to struggle a bit in conference play. That said, I’m prepared to eat my words when they finish in sixth place.
Richmond kicks off A-10 play on Saturday at Saint Joseph’s.
Best win: at UNCG, 70-62
Worst loss: Mount St. Mary’s, 75-67.
11. Saint Joseph’s (6-6)
Saint Joseph’s is a very similar story to that of Richmond. The Hawks seemed to lose a game, win a game all November and December long. In their final eight games of non-conference play, they won four and lost four. I have no idea what to make of that kind of consistent inconsistency, and as a result, the Hawks find themselves in 11th. SJU is also tied for the fewest games played their season at 12, along with St. Bonaventure and Rhode Island. Their best win by far was Temple, who is ranked #67 in the RPI. They also played a very challenging schedule, with the majority of their opponents falling in the top-100 of the RPI. This issue is they only won one of those games. I need to see a larger sample size from this team to really get a feel for where they are right now.
Saint Joseph’s kicks off their A-10 campaign on Saturday against Richmond.
Best win: Temple, 67-63
Worst loss: at Villanova, 60-44
12. VCU (5-8)
It’s difficult to understand what went wrong for VCU so far this season. The Rams were picked preseason #1 in the Atlantic 10 poll, earning 11 of 14 possible first-place votes. After being one of the top-offenses in the nation a year ago, VCU is 318th in the nation in scoring, averaging just 56.4 points per game. The Rams are below even George Washington (the Colonials are 312th, averaging 56.9 points) in scoring, sitting at rock bottom in the Atlantic 10 in points.
From the outside looking in, VCU just can’t seem to put it together this season. The Rams closed out December dropping five of their last seven contests. Old Dominion is their only win this season over a team ranked #200 or better in the RPI. In fact, VCU’s second-best win this season is ECU, who is ranked #225. To be fair, the Rams have played a very tough non-conference schedule, with RealTimeRPI rankings their SOS the 113th most difficult, but also the 7th most difficult in the A-10.
VCU opens A-10 play with a date with Rhode Island on the road.
Best win: Old Dominion, 62-49
Worst loss: Southern Miss, 51-39
13. La Salle (6-7)
I really want to place La Salle higher than this, but they have given me no choice but to place them 13th. The Explorers started the year 6-1, with just a long 3-point loss to a very good Robert Morris team. Then they lost six straight games to fall to 6-7 and you have one heck of a confusing team. La Salle beat some good teams early, including a road win at Penn State, as well as a good Harvard team and Howard. Then the wheels really fell off the bus, including a stretch of four games where they didn’t score more than 49 points. The offense seemed to find some offense towards the end of December, scoring 69 and 62 points in their final two games, but neither were enough for a victory. This team has shown some real promise at times, and has looked really lost at other times. Where they finish is anyone’s guess. For now, they find themselves 13th.
La Salle will open conference play at Dayton on Saturday.
Best win: at Penn State, 69-67
Worst loss: at Navy, 61-46
14. St. Bonaventure (3-10)
I’m sorry to say it, but this was the easiest team to rank. The Bonnies are 14th for a good reason here. They have the worst record in the Atlantic 10, and are the lowest ranked in the RPI as well. None of the three teams they have beaten (Niagara, Wright State and Oakland) have a winning record. It’s been a rough year in Olean and sadly, I’m not sure how much better it’s going to get this year.
The Bonnies open conference play at defending A-10 Champion Fordham on Saturday.
Best win: Wright State, 57-56
Worst loss: Canisius, 84-82
A-10 Bracketology
In the projected field:
Duquesne: The Dukes are the only team in the field currently projected by ESPN’s Charlie Creme, though notably, he has been significantly less accurate than men’s basketball Joe Lunardi. That said, this is about right. No one has really made a strong case for an at-large birth, and Charlie currently projects Duquesne to make the field as the A-10 champion as a 13-seed. The Atlantic 10 is likely, once again, a one-bid league. That could change if someone runs the table (or is close to it) and loses in Dayton in March.
Work to do:
Saint Louis: This is a long-shot at this point, but the Billikens are a top-50 RPI team right now, despite their 8-5 record. That said, Saint Louis is without a super-strong win to their name, with their best win of the season coming against an 8-4 Cincinnati team. That said, SLU doesn’t have a bad loss holding them back. Their five loses have come against Vanderbilt, a good Southern Illinois team, Missouri who was a NCAAT team a year ago, Princeton who was 10-1 when they met, and an undefeated Kansas team. Still, Saint Louis is going to need to kick things up a notch in conference play to have a chance at an at-large bid. They would make an appealing case for a birth in the WNIT, however.
Dayton or bust this year:
Everybody else: Like I said before, this is likely a one-bid league, unless Duquesne and/or Saint Louis really impress in conference play and lose in Dayton. Still, this remains a wide open league once again. This is gonna be a fun few months!
With all of that said, I fully expect to eat my words on 90% of this come March. I feel as though the top tier of the A-10 is relatively solid, but UMass and a few others still have a lot to prove. Teams 5-13 could fall basically anywhere, and your guess is as good as mine as to how teams like Richmond and GW will finish the season. St. Bonaventure is pretty comfortably in 14th, but I think they could certainly sneak up on some teams as well. The battle for seeds 3-8 in the A-10 Tournament is going to be particularly interesting this season, and I can guarantee you we won’t know most of it until the final day of the regular season.
As Jon Rothstein says, “Grab your nitroglycerin pills America.”
