Patriots need help to get a double bye in the A-10 Tournament, here’s how

George Mason’s tournament seeding is no longer in their hands. The Patriots now have the dreaded fortune of hoping that another Atlantic 10 rival will propel Mason into the top-four teams and earn a double bye into the Atlantic 10 Tournament.

Having a double bye is extremely beneficial for the Patriots if they want to have a chance win the A-10 title. Throughout the history of the league, your only chance of winning is getting that double-bye. Since 2007 there has only been one team that did not get a double-bye into the quarterfinals and won the championship. That was VCU in 2015 (when the tournament also held in Brooklyn), but the other 11 of 12 championships went to a top-four team.

A look at the race for the final 3 (?!) double byes for the A-10 Tournament:

2. Dayton 11-4 (vs URI, vs. La Salle, @ Duq)
3. David 11-4 (vs. Ford, vs. Bona, @ Rich)
4. Mason 10-5 (@ SLU, vs. VCU, @ GW)
5. Bona 10-5 (@ GW, @ David, @ SLU)
6. Duq 9-6 (vs. UMass, @ SLU, vs. Dayton)

— Tyler Byrum (@theTylerByrum) February 28, 2019

If the tournament would start today, George Mason (16-12, 10-5) would hold the No. 4 seed heading into Brooklyn. They currently hold the tiebreaker over St. Bonaventure (14-14, 10-5) due to their win over Dayton back on January 23.

Despite holding that spot now, it does not mean that it will not change. There is a scenario, albeit crazy, where Mason goes undefeated and this is the result:

VCU would have to win their other two games (outside of Mason). Dayton and St. Bonaventure would also go 3-0 down the stretch, while Davidson (with a loss to the Bonnies) would also have to lose only once to Fordham/ Richmond. Mason would be fifth based on the three-way tiebreaker between them, Davidson and St. Bonaventure.

That above scenario is relying on a lot to come to fruition. But, it is also daring to assume Mason will go 3-0 down the stretch. There are also other scenarios that could keep Mason out too.

Their remaining games are at Saint Louis, the preseason favorite to win the A-10 title, at home vs. VCU, the current A-10 favorite, and against rival George Washington in D.C.

So the Patriots need at least one result to go their way. Heck, if things go the right way Mason could win the regular season title, not likely whatsoever. It just goes to show that there is a lot left to be decided.

UPDATE: March 3

The weekend started off well for the Patriots with URI getting a big win over Dayton. Alone, that was enough to put the fate back into the Patriots hands. However, George Mason could not respond against Saint Louis and now puts the team in a precarious spot with two games left.

George Mason is sixth, now far removed from the double bye and have a long way to go with two games left. The good news is now Mason has clinched a seventh place finish or better, thanks to Saint Joseph’s beating La Salle. The best they can do is third.

There are a couple of changes below from the original post. No longer does Mason care about VCU’s results and it would be tough to pass Davidson (would have to be a three-way tiebreaker).

Here is how Mason fans should show their allegiance with two games remaining in the regular season. Of course, all this assumes Mason wins their last two games. These picks are reflected to give Mason the best possible chance to get the highest seed possible:

(*) denotes home team

Wednesday, March 6

La Salle (7-9) over Dayton* (11-5)
Davidson* (12-4) over St. Bonaventure (11-5)
Saint Louis* (9-7) over Duquesne (10-6)

Saturday, March 9

Saint Louis (9-7) over St. Bonaventure* (11-5)
Richmond* (6-10) over Davidson (12-4)
Dayton (11-5) over Duquesne* (10-6)

If the above results happen, here is how it would play out.

CURRENT ATLANTIC 10 STANDINGS:

And just in case you need it:

A-10 Tournament seeding Probabilities Through Games of 2/27:@DavidPJablonski @wayneeppsjr @a10talk pic.twitter.com/yFNDGw8JCI

— Bob Arciero (@liminutemen) February 28, 2019

This post will be updated daily as the standings change and the ‘picks’ will change accordingly.