A10 Player of the Year Watch, Volume 3

February 23, 2018

1716

Welcome! If you’re interested in the A10 Player of the Year race, check back here every Friday. We’ll start with some boring notes on methodology then get to the good stuff:

Numbers listed are for the season, but we’ll give favor to players who are performing better in conference.
The criteria for rankings is mostly in my head, but I’ll heavily favor a combination of efficiency, workload, and defensive production. I reserve the right to be completely arbitrary about how good a defender I think someone is.
If you’re not a big dork like I am, here’s a quick primer on the numbers we’re using. If you’re familiar with this stuff continue reading:
- PER: Short for Player Efficiency Rating, this adds up positive contributions like points, rebounds, steals, blocks, etc, subtracts negative contributions like turnovers and missed shots, and spits out an efficiency rating. Efficiency is important for guys who put up impressive raw stats.
- USG: Usage rate, or how many possessions a player “uses” while he is on the floor. Used in this context means took a shot, went to the foul line, or turned the ball over. This helps us gauge a player’s workload.
- TS%: True shooting percentage bakes in three-pointers and foul shots, so it’s weighted to be more meaningful than regular field goal percentage. This is the best way to look at scoring efficiency.

Now that we’ve got that out of the way, let me say that this race has turned into a real free-for-all since I last posted three weeks ago. At that time I thought it was pretty clear that either Jared Terrell or Justin Tillman was the guy. Since then Jaylen Adams jumped into the Octagon and started whacking the other guys over the head with a folding chair. He had a five point game before my last post; he followed it up with eighty-four points over his next two games (not a typo). He’s averaging 28 points, 6.3 assists, and 2.5 steals per game on 54% shooting over his last six. He’s the 1B to Jared Terrell’s 1A at this point.

Peyton Aldridge has also bolstered his case. I don’t think he’s the guy, but as the undisputed leader of a team that’s tied for second in the conference, he can’t be ignored either. He’s averaging 22.8 points and 9.5 rebounds over his last six.

As usual, thanks to College Basketball Reference, hoop-math, and kenpom for the data. Here we go.

First Team

Jared Terrell, Rhode Island

17.6 points, 3.4 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.5 steals

21.5 PER, 25.8% USG, .582 TS%

Jared Terrell would have won this thing going away if Rhode Island swept through the conference and won it by five games. Now that they’re only three games up, Terrell’s claim to the throne is a little dicey. Of course he’s one of the best players in the A10, but historically the Player of the Year award goes to a stat accumulator. The team around Terrell is so good they don’t need him to set the box score on fire, which might hurt him. It’s not fair to say that he’s slumping, but at 16.5 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1 steal over his past six, I think it’s fair to say he’s leveling out.

These stats don’t quite capture Terrell’s defensive contributions, either. Rhode Island is fifth in the NCAA in turning opponents over and fourth in the NCAA in opponent three point attempts – Terrell’s ability to defend the perimeter is very important for both of those.

Jaylen Adams, St. Bonaventure

20.2 points, 3.6 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.6 steals

24.2 PER, 26.2 USG%, .641 TS%

Jaylen’s true shooting % is bolstered by his blistering hot 48.5% shooting from deep on over six attempts per game. His numbers are better then Terrell’s in just about every important category. Whether you think Adams or Terrell is POY is sort of a Rorschach test for how you feel about personal production vs. team dominance.

Justin Tillman, VCU

19.3 points, 9.6 rebounds, 1 block

28 PER, 27.6% USG, .617 TS%

Tillman is scoring a bunch and being very efficient while doing it, but it’s also becoming clear that VCU is not on the same level of Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure, or Davidson. Tillman might win, but I’ve got him here for the moment since two better teams also have deserving candidates.

Peyton Aldridge, Davidson

20.7 points, 7.4 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 0.6 blocks

24.8 PER, 28.4% USG, .580 TS%

Aldridge is the last player I see as having a legitimate shot at the POY crown. If I’m handicapping I would go something like 35% Terrell, 35% Adams, 20% Tillman, 10% Aldridge. Maybe I’d shave a percentage or two off the group for an “other” category but I think your realistic POY pool ends here.

Josh Cunningham, Dayton

16.1 points, 8.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.5 blocks

24.8 PER, 23.5% USG, .684 TS%

I don’t have a strong opinion on who occupies the fifth spot on the first team at the moment. I think we might see any of the next few guys in here, but Cunningham is clearly in Tillman’s class as a post big and he’s having an outstandingly efficient season.

Second Team

Matt Mobley, St. Bonaventure

18.3 points, 5.1 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.2 steals

19 PER, 24.2% USG, .589 TS%

Jaylen Adams gets all the love, but having a second guard of Mobley’s caliber is what makes the Bonnies dangerous. He’s having a fantastic season once again.

Luwane Pipkins, UMass

21.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.5 steals

21.5 PER, 33.5% USG, .561 TS%

Pipkins is a “look past the numbers” guy because what he’s doing at UMass right now is incredible. Due to injuries, suspensions, and four scholarships occupied by transfers coming eligible next year, UMass has five scholarship basketball players available. To fill out their bench, they had to grab Randall West off the football team. West hasn’t played organized basketball since his junior year of high school. Despite all that, Pipkins is leading the A10 in scoring on massive usage. He’s put up 31 points and 38 points in his last two games. Yes, 4-11 UMass is tied for last, but Pipkins is a legitimate stud and they’d be much worse off without him. He’s here because there is precedent for leaving the conference’s leading scorer off the first team when that player plays on a bad team.

Yuta Watanabe, George Washington

16 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.8 steals, 1.6 blocks

19.3 PER, 23.5% USG, .534 TS%

I’ve got Yuta here because he’s a tremendous defender. GW is first in the A10 in block rate and fourth in steal rate with Yuta contributing heavily in both categories. He’s not a pure scorer but he’s dangerous when he heats up.

BJ Johnson, La Salle

20.8 points, 8.6 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.6 blocks

23.3 PER, 31.6% USG, .547 TS%

Absolute stud stuck on a bad team. Had 29 points and 23 rebounds in La Salle’s near-upset of Rhode Island.

Otis Livingston, George Mason

16.9 points, 3.4 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1 steal

18.1 PER, 25% USG, .560 TS%

I wrote a separate article for my fellow Mason fans about how Otis gets buckets in a very unique way – creating for himself – compared to his peers. His assisted buckets rate remains one of the lowest that I could find, which makes his true shooting percentage all the more impressive.

Third Team

Jon Axel Gudmundsson, Davidson

13.7 points, 5.8 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 1.4 steals

20.7 PER, 21.6% USG, .607 TS%

JAG is one of two guys in the A10 (the other is CJ Anderson from UMass) averaging more than 5 assists and 5 rebounds per game.

EC Matthews, Rhode Island

13 points, 3.7 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.5 blocks

16.1 PER, 25% USG, .537 TS%

I don’t think EC Matthews deserves to be here on numbers, but there’s no way Rhode Island only gets one guy on the A10 all-conference teams. Win the league by three games and they’ll shoehorn Matthews or Stan Robinson into this spot. Choosing Matthews for now since his reputation far exceeds his production to this point in the season.

Grant Golden, Richmond

15.4 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.3 blocks

18.7 PER, 29.3% USG, .531 TS%

Starting here with Grant Golden, we’re at a point where none of these guys are even close to locks. Strong finishes by the guys in the honorable mention category or weak finishes by Golden and the next two could shake this up a lot.

Eric Williams Jr, Duquesne

14.6 points, 8.9 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.4 steals

19.6 PER, 23.5% USG, .536 TS%

Darrell Davis, Dayton

15.9 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 0.6 steals

15.5 PER, 24.7% USG, .588 TS%

Honorable Mention

Pookie Powell, La Salle

16.6 points, 3.9 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 0.9 steals

15.5 PER, 26.8% USG, .506 TS%

Shavar Newkirk, St. Joseph’s

17.7 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.5 steals