This season has already been a historic one for the George Mason women’s basketball team. With the Atlantic 10 tournament looming, it does not appear they are anywhere close to being done breaking records.
On top of tying a program-record 21 wins, having an All-American on their roster in Natalie Butler, this year is going to go down in the annals of the team’s history. With such a successful season, and already clinching a winning campaign, George Mason is eligible for the postseason for the first time since 2004.
Twice the Patriots have made it into postseason basketball, both times to the WNIT. Never has George Mason made it to the NCAA Tournament, still lacking a conference championship. Mason made the WNIT back in 2001 with a top-four finish in the CAA and in 2004 losing in the CAA Championship Game.
All scores, records, and RPI numbers are based on games on Feb. 22 unless otherwise noted.
Currently the team is sitting with a 21-8 (10-5 Atlantic 10) record. Already they look primed to make the WNIT once again, and doing it for the first time under head coach Nyla Milleson. But in a better conference and a tougher schedule, is the WNIT as high as the team can go?
RPI: 108, -6 (5th in Atlantic 10)
SOS: 243, -15 (13th in Atlantic 10)
Unlike, men’s basketball there are not as many metrics (BPI, KenPom, etc.) used to determine the strength of a team. RPI, although severely flawed, is pretty much any one has to go on outside of the committee.
For the Patriots, the ‘Natalie Butler season’ was not something predicted seasons ago, so the schedule was still built for a program in the middle of the Atlantic 10. The opportunities to move into the national conversation were few and far between.
MORE MASON WBB: NATALIE BUTLER IS GOOD, BUT SO IS THE REST OF THE TEAM
vs. RPI top 50 (0-2)
*L vs. Dayton (33, -2)
L vs. Michigan (39, +1)
vs. RPI 51-100 (2-5)
W vs. American (60, -2)
L vs. Houston (67, -10)
*L vs. Fordham (72, -12)
*L vs. Duquesne (74, -4)
W vs. Drake (77, +3)
*L vs. George Washington (97, -9)
*L vs. George Washington (97, -9)
vs. RPI 101-200 (4-1)
*W vs. Saint Louis (127, +4)
L vs. Colorado (150, -8)
*W vs. Saint Joseph’s (141, +24)
*W vs. Davidson (173, -2)
*W vs. Richmond (199, +13)
vs. RPI sub-201 (16-0)
W vs. Southeast Missouri State (213, +1)
W vs. Loyola MD (237, +10)
*W vs. La Salle (242)
*W vs. La Salle (242)
*W vs. St. Bonaventure (250, -1)
*W vs. St. Bonaventure (250, -1)
W vs. Illinois State (255, -4)
W vs. LIU Brooklyn (272, +13)
*W vs. Massachusetts (273, -3)
W vs. UMES (274)
W vs. Old Dominion (281)
*W vs. VCU (284, -2)
W vs. Eastern Kentucky (315, -1)
W vs. UMBC (323, -1)
*W vs. Rhode Island (333, -5)
W vs. Longwood (344, +2)
On the schedule there was really only nine chances to garner a “quality win.” Out of conference they did pretty well (2-2), but in the Atlantic 10 they have yet to pick-up a victory (0-5). Unless Mason was to sneak in an upset at the end of the year, their best win is against American who is cruising in the Patriot League. There is no reason, based on their results, to even consider George Mason for an NCAA at-large berth.
However, there is still the automatic berth up for grabs for the conference. It appears to be forgone conclusion that Dayton, Duquense, or Fordham will run away with the title, but there is always a reason why they play the games. If they win, George Mason is in the NCAA Tournament for the first time ever. If they do not win they have a tall task ahead of them to get into the tournament.
According to Charlie Creme (ESPN) here is the ‘bubble’ for the tournament as of Feb. 19:
Minnesota (21-7, 10-5 Big Ten)
Virginia (16-12, 9-6 ACC)
Michigan (21-8, 10-6 Big Ten) — locked in tournament
Purdue (18-12, 9-7 Big Ten) — move out
Creighton (17-10, 11-6 Big East) — bump down
USC (19-10, 9-9 Pac-12)
South Dakota State (23-6, 12-2 Summit) — move out
———————–
Buffalo (23-4, 14-2 MAC) — move in
West Virginia (20-9, 8-9 Big 12)
Nebraska (20-8, 11-4 Big Ten) — move in
Oklahoma (16-12, 11-6 Big 12)
Ball State (23-4, 12-4 MAC)
TCU (18-10, 9-8 Big 12)
St. John’s (16-12, 9-8 Big East)
Michigan State (17-12, 7-9 Big Ten) – bump up
Although not mentioned by Creme, the Atlantic 10 also has Duquesne (22-5, 12-2) in the conversation as well. Fordham (20-7, 11-3) is not that far behind either but needs an upset and some help.
As you can see, a lot of teams that Mason has a better record than, but that doesn’t really matter. What does help the Patriots though is that they have a perfect record against teams with an RPI of 150 or worse (18-0). There is nothing that ‘hurts’ their resume and also a reason why they are favorable to make the WNIT.
But lets go into hypotheticals, say Mason gets a win at Dayton (RPI: 33), which would be their best win to date, and beat La Salle (234) on Senior Night. They would either get the No. 3 or No. 4 seed in the A10 Tournament. Their potential A10 path would be 1st Round: RPI 230-350, Quarterfinals: RPI 90-150, Semi-finals: RPI 30-75, again assuming they do not win the championship.
Based on this scenario they would end the season likely with three more top-100 RPI victories, and at least one in the top-50. With an impressive 26-8 record they do have to rely on the bubble to help them out but there are a ton of teams ahead of them.
A run to the title game without the championship will likely not get it done.
But they are going to be in the WNIT for the third time in school history. Unlike the Men’s NIT which has 32 entrants, the WNIT has 64 teams just like the NCAA Tournament.
What does make the WNIT confusing is they do give a bid to all 32 conferences, leaving only 32 at-larges. Doing all of the math, George Mason is right on the good side of bubble in the WNIT but if upsets happen in conference tournaments they move farther down. What would really ensure a WNIT bid would be beating La Salle and either beating Dayton or making it to the A10 semi-finals.
If Mason does make it into the WNIT, they will likely also host their first round game from being a higher seed.
Feb. 21 Bracketology Update:
American drops a few slots in the national RPI to 58th but remains Mason’s best win. Saint Joseph’s falls quite a bit with their three-point loss to George Washington who jumped up three slots. Other teams got shuffled including a jump for Fordham to 70th.
On the bubble, Minnesota (21-7, 10-5) had a costly home loss to Indiana which probably keeps them in the tournament for now but without any wiggle room. West Virginia (20-8, 8-8) solidified their case with a win over Kansas State but will not be enough, for now, to send them to the tournament. Nothing to affect the Patriots so far.
George Mason did pass Arkansas Little-Rock in the RPI on an off day for both teams. They are the highest ranked team from the Sun Belt.
Feb. 22 Bracketology Update:
George Mason fell to Dayton in a game that did not do anything to bolster the Patrtiots’ resume, rather just solidify their position. They did move slightly up in the RPI, passing Cleveland State, Butler, Auburn, and Seton Hall. All of those teams that they desperately need to be ahead of for WNIT consideration. None of those teams are first are second in their conferences, so they are fighting for at-large bids in both tournaments, that is if they do not win their conference tournament.
Their ‘Strength of Schedule’ also drastically increased by playing the Flyers at their place, but still the SOS is pulling Mason down.
On the bubble, Buffalo (22-4, 13-2 MAC), Ball State (22-4, 11-4 MAC), TCU (18-9, 9-7 Big 12), Oklahoma (15-12, 10-6 Big 12) all won but not against teams who could move the needle. South Dakota State (22-6, 11-2 Summit) lost to league favorite South Dakota, which will likely be the difference in one or two bids for their conference.
With a lot of teams playing yesterday it definitely moved the rankings around. In the Atlantic 10, Fordham got a massive road win over Duquesne. It jumped the Rams up 11 spots and dropped the Dukes by eight. Both teams still on the outside of the NCAA bubble, but Fordham now with the big edge against the Dukes.
Feb. 23 Bracketology Update:
With a 21-point loss to the No. 2 team in the country, Auburn (with a losing record) leapfrogs George Mason in the RPI. Remember though, to be in the WNIT, you must have a winning record so the Tigers don’t affect the Patriots for now.
On the bubble, Michigan (21-8, 10-6 Big Ten) got a critical home win over Maryland, putting the Wolverwines solidly in the field of 64. Nebraska (20-8, 11-4) also got a win over Penn State but won’t do much unless other teams loose. It will probably put them in over South Dakota State at this point. Another winner was USC (18-10, 8-9 Pac-12). The only loser on the bubble was Virginia (16-12, 9-6).
Feb. 25 Bracketology Update:
Since I missed yesterday’s update, this will combine results from March 23 and 24. George Mason won their senior day game against La Salle, but with such a close score it actually dropped the Patriots to 108 in the RPI. With some teams (i.e. Milwaukee) being a potential bid stealer for the Patriots.
Overall in the RPI this weekend was relatively negative for Mason with a lot of their top opponents losing or playing in close games against significantly worse opponents. Richmond however, does jump up a spot to the next tier of wins for Mason.
On the bubble, these teams won; Oklahoma, Michigan State, USC, South Dakota State, Buffalo, and Ball State. No win was bigger though than the Spartans over Purdue, which will surely shuffle the bubble. Losses include: St. John’s, Creighton, TCU, West Virginia, and Purdue.
This is the final update for the George Mason Bracketology watch. A final look at the Patriots’ resume will be posted following the Atlantic 10 tournament.
